U.S. stock market on verge of collapse?

[Starcraftmazter]

Australia is most certainly in a recession. Anyone who says otherwise must be a miner or some bigshot executive.

 

[sails]

Australia is most certainly in a recession. Anyone who says otherwise must be a miner or some bigshot executive.

Or Wayne Swan?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Or Wayne Swan?

I wanted to say lunatic, but did not wish to offend anyone

 

[CanOz]

Perhaps the country as a whole isn't, but SA and Tas certainly are and Vic would appear to be damn close.

Tas and possibly SA could be dismissed, but Vic is a rather significant state economically...

Smurf...Tasmania is to Australia what Newfoundland WAS to Canada...

Except wait...no greenies and now NFLD is Canada's mining boom center....digging lots of big holes in the ground and pumping oil out of the sea bed. Not as big as Alberta...but still.

Now my home province (NB) is the Tassie of Canada....makes me happy though, lots of fish in the rivers still

They measure recession as a national metric for a reason, lots of diversity.

CanOz

 

[wayneL]

Now my home province (NB)

OT, but I want to visit NB one day, especially in the fall.

 

[MrBurns]

Buggered if I can work it out the US is supposed to be stuffed yet the DOW is st it's highest level for 2 years.

 

[bailx]

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,368.71) remains below its 50-day SMA. NYSE volume fell 19%, thereby failing to confirm a modest recovery attempt on Wednesday.

MACD based on SPX fell further below the zero line, fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months, fell further below its signal line, and fell further below its high set on 2/9/12, which appears to have been the momentum peak for the rally.

The S&P 500 chart broke down below the rising lower boundary line of a Bearish Rising Wedge on 4/10/12, thereby giving a clear bearish chart signal. This breakdown suggests that stocks could quickly erase all gains since the 10/4/11 low of 1,074.77 on the S&P 500..........

 

[CanOz]

OT, but I want to visit NB one day, especially in the fall.

Take your fly rod and your shotgun! Blast 'n' Cast as we affectionately call it!

CanOz

 

[StumpyPhantom]

If we are talking about the definition of what a recession is to gauge the health of the system then you can have an apparent healthy system based on positive GDP but still have an underlying 'recession'.

This is based on the fact that they count Government spending & inventories as positives to the total - absent the governments continued propping up of the figures and US GDP has been negative for several years already. Now you combine this with the fact that they are now running deficits of $1.3TRILLION annually and it only needs simple maths skills to work out that at some stage the government will have to reduce spending dramatically which will show up as official reduced GDP and recession. It has to happen sometime in the future.....

The irony is that if there really is eventually an actual recovery that interest rates will have to rise and they will then have a massive interest bill as well.

They can only pass the buck into the future by printing money & continually rolling over T Bills to keep rates down for a limited time - eventually the system will break.

Time to update 'The Jaws Of Death'

View attachment 46712

I hear all this loud and clear. It's the only logical path. The question on my mind is when to get completely out of the ILLOGICAL stock market, of which I'm probably already 70% out.

Is any of the stupid money supposedly sitting on the sidelines going to come in first to give it a brief burst or are we done there too? If it's been sitting on the sidelines for years, you'd think now was a stupid time to put it to work, but then greed does make you stupid!

 

[Smurf1976]

They measure recession as a national metric for a reason, lots of diversity.

Agreed with your point. But I'd argue that if you exclude a single industry, mining, then Australia at the national level is damn close to being in recession.

Anywhere with or near a mine is booming whilst anywhere well away from one is seriously struggling at the moment.

The trouble is, most Australians don't live or work anywhere near a mine. The fortunes of a relative few are skewing the national statistics whilst the majority aren't doing anywhere near as well.

 

[bailx]

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[CanOz]

Agreed with your point. But I'd argue that if you exclude a single industry, mining, then Australia at the national level is damn close to being in recession.

Anywhere with or near a mine is booming whilst anywhere well away from one is seriously struggling at the moment.

The trouble is, most Australians don't live or work anywhere near a mine. The fortunes of a relative few are skewing the national statistics whilst the majority aren't doing anywhere near as well.

There are plenty of spin offs from such a large and diverse industry....it affects so much...it's bigger than manufacturing.

When mining contracts everything contracts.....in my view Australia is starting to struggle because mining has already started to contract....but I also think the bottom is near again....china is starting to loan again...

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Buggered if I can work it out the US is supposed to be stuffed yet the DOW is st it's highest level for 2 years.

If you ran a company in the US you would borrow virtually unlimited amounts of 'priming' money from the Fed @ 0.25% no strings attached. You would then have lot's of money on your books with no productive (like building a factory to create employment) use, so you would initiate share buy backs executive bonus's and the like. Plus changes to accounting rules that got rid of mark to market to hide all the bad stuff. On the surface all is rosy. Earnings is the one to watch, and not the 'better than expected low balled target'.......

There are plenty of spin offs from such a large and diverse industry....it affects so much...it's bigger than manufacturing.

When mining contracts everything contracts.....in my view Australia is starting to struggle because mining has already started to contract....but I also think the bottom is near again....china is starting to loan again...

CanOz

Are they loans or 'grants'? The data already suggests that there is a huge chunk of non conforming 'loans' already - the projects are cash flow negative and will probably never show a 'profit'. It's just more of the push priming with debt that the rest of the world has tried and is failing?

China's GDP grew 8.1% in the January to March period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, below analysts’ expectations of an 8.3% expansion & substantially below the 8.9% from the last qtr. And that was the official figure - I assume the real figure would be even worse?

Anyway, it's risk off day today as all is bad again apparently, Dow down 100 pts as I type..........it is building up for a big fall........like the San Andreas Fault..........

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Where did that 180 pt gain go? Down 140 with volume sellers.......

 

[Logique]

Don't always agree with you Star, but siding with you here. I think the risk is to the downside now. Don't know whether it will be just corrective, or a return of the Bear.

A weekly chart of the VIX, comparison with SPX which generally travels inversely (check the % compare indicator). The VIX is nudging 20 and looking higher. Could be just a blip like March 2011, don't know yet.

 

[CanOz]

If you ran a company in the US you would borrow virtually unlimited amounts of 'priming' money from the Fed @ 0.25% no strings attached. You would then have lot's of money on your books with no productive (like building a factory to create employment) use, so you would initiate share buy backs executive bonus's and the like. Plus changes to accounting rules that got rid of mark to market to hide all the bad stuff. On the surface all is rosy. Earnings is the one to watch, and not the 'better than expected low balled target'.......



Are they loans or 'grants'? The data already suggests that there is a huge chunk of non conforming 'loans' already - the projects are cash flow negative and will probably never show a 'profit'. It's just more of the push priming with debt that the rest of the world has tried and is failing?

China's GDP grew 8.1% in the January to March period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, below analysts’ expectations of an 8.3% expansion & substantially below the 8.9% from the last qtr. And that was the official figure - I assume the real figure would be even worse?

Anyway, it's risk off day today as all is bad again apparently, Dow down 100 pts as I type..........it is building up for a big fall........like the San Andreas Fault..........

Sure UF, I agree that debt is bad and all that, bad loans etc., but they have no other choice. They must reinflate.

I stand by my call, this is a correction.

I'll even throw in my early call for the top, hehe.....since I found some confluence in an issue of Stocks & Commodities yesterday.......

December 17th ..... Then I can get bearish

CanOz
FWIW - I really am not too concerned about which way the market moves, as long as it moves! Just enjoying the banter.

 

[notting]

Looks like it's going to be a battle between old world restructuring and new one world social media/carrier/hardware provider - boom.

 

[ishakeel]

really???

 

[notting]

really???

Yep. I climbed up the mountain and God himself carved that comment in stone tablets and handed it to me to share with u here.
That's real!
Oh ye of little faith.
So endeth thy speculation

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Look out below...................?



Then QE3?