TZL - TZ Limited

[oldblue]

Actually, the prospects are still the same but I know what you are getting at - you are saying that the lower the price paid the better. Do you have any evidence to support this wacky theory?

Yes, it's a crazy old strategy called "Buying low and Selling high".



Meanwhile, still no reason to buy as the downtrend continues.

 

[lemontree]

TZL hit a new low with 28c. UBIQUITOUS, do you still have unwavering faith in this stock? (this is not a personal attack) i'm jsut trying to comprehend where your confidence is derived from

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

TZL hit a new low with 28c. UBIQUITOUS, do you still have unwavering faith in this stock? (this is not a personal attack) i'm jsut trying to comprehend where your confidence is derived from

Absolutely, although I finished buying at 33 cents. The company has come leaps and bounds and are now targeting record revenue in 10 months. I would expect to see a PR blitz at some point soon. The current price is due to a lack of PR as well as some unscrupulous parties who are operating in the void where nobody will sell and buy. I would turn away for a while. Feel free to call the company. In fact I highly recommend it.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

TZL is ticking up. Up 35% in a little over 1 week. I think we have a very interesting near term future ahead of us. Whether this was the buying opportunity of a lifetime, time will tell. I feel very confident though.

 

[nomore4s]

Quarterly is due out tomorrow. I bought the last of mine this week to bring my average down to 90c, and am well and truly locked and loaded. I have absolute faith in the tech and the board's ability to deliver. There are FAR too many clues in the announcements to tell us that this ship is steered in the right direction but it looks like nobody has noticed.

What's that old business saying? Something like..."you snooze you lose"

I hope all took full advantage prior to the TH. I would guess that we are around the bottom here as the price had gone down due to TZ's debt problems. They look as though they may finally be resolved.

Happy times ahead for the long term holders?

Oh, I'm dead right about this company. Maybe you should take a closer look before passing judgement.

I have now formed the base of a very big pyramid in the 40's. My average is in the 60's. It is time to reap what I sowed.

Up 20% since in a week. I guess there is a perception that the bottom was in around at 40cents. One of my better calls

TZL is ticking up. Up 35% in a little over 1 week. I think we have a very interesting near term future ahead of us. Whether this was the buying opportunity of a lifetime, time will tell. I feel very confident though.

Anyone notice a pattern here?

Maybe you've finally got it right UBIQUITOUS? How many times have you averaged down now? I really do hope this company does eventually turn it self around for the share holders but the balance sheet is still looking terribly weak and there is still every chance this company could fold.

Is it any wonder so many people lose money in the market. If a sensible stop point had been used a small loss could have been taken and stock re-accumulated at a hell of a lot cheaper price/cost average. And that's also without taking into account opportunity cost while holding a stock that has lost around 90% of its value in the last 2 years and about 60% in the last 6 or so months or including the risk that the company could still go under.

Being right isn't as important to me as being profitable - and they are by no means the same thing.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Anyone notice a pattern here?

Maybe you've finally got it right UBIQUITOUS? How many times have you averaged down now?

I have averaged down since $4, with over half of my shares being acquired around 40cent. I now have close to 1 million shares, at an average of about 60c. This pyramiding is a strategy which will work for me .

I really do hope this company does eventually turn it self around for the share holders but the balance sheet is still looking terribly weak and there is still every chance this company could fold.

With all due respect, the above comment is pretty naive. It is atypical of people who do not follow certain stocks closely but jump in with their 'insightful analysis' after '2 minutes of research'. The balance sheet which you scanned is very out of date, and your comments suggest a lack of understanding of how technology stocks are valued. Perhaps you should have waited another couple of days for the 2010 full year accounts, and looked at those instead?

There are many many other factors which need to be considered before the light is seen, and not just a scan of an aged balance sheet. The market is forward looking, and that is especially true for technology stocks. For a start, you should be looking at revenues. The balance sheet, being a historical snapshot, will always be out of date. If you value a company on that alone, you will always be several steps behind.

So with that in mind, perhaps you would comment on the forecast of 100% increase in revenues, and to be profitable within 10 months? There are so many other fundamental indicators which you really should consider before casting judgement.

This is the problem with charts. T/analysts think that price and volume represents everything. Watch how TZ unfolds and you will see that it is fundamental analysis, and not t/a, which shows the unpolished diamonds.

In my opinion there is no stock on the ASX which is as undervalued as TZL. But let's see what eventuates over the future, and see who is proved right.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

This CEO update does not give the impression that the company is going under. In fact, it tells me that the company is verging on a major expansion:

http://www.tz.net/sites/tz.net/files/20100823-ceo_update.pdf

We are currently working on several initiatives which we believe will help to raise much
needed market awareness of the Company, allowing us to emerge from the adverse
events of the previous 12 months and to stand up as a globally recognized technology
leader that we can all be proud of.

 

[nomore4s]

With all due respect, the above comment is pretty naive. It is atypical of people who do not follow certain stocks closely but jump in with their 'insightful analysis' after '2 minutes of research'. The balance sheet which you scanned is very out of date, and your comments suggest a lack of understanding of how technology stocks are valued. Perhaps you should have waited another couple of days for the 2010 full year accounts, and looked at those instead?

Yeah the fact the company had to borrow $4 million @ 10% pa "to ensure the on-going viability of the Company in the first instance" & "commence the implementation of its plans" isn't a problem at all, it's balance sheet must be strong as. If you think there is no risk of this company going under you are deluding yourself imo.
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100714/pdf/01079163.pdf

There are many many other factors which need to be considered before the light is seen, and not just a scan of an aged balance sheet. The market is forward looking, and that is especially true for technology stocks. For a start, you should be looking at revenues. The balance sheet, being a historical snapshot, will always be out of date. If you value a company on that alone, you will always be several steps behind.

So with that in mind, perhaps you would comment on the forecast of 100% increase in revenues, and to be profitable within 10 months? There are so many other fundamental indicators which you really should consider before casting judgement.

lol, just look back through this thread and see how many forecasts & bullish predictions have failed to eventuate.

The market is forward looking and look at the way the sp has headed over the last 2 years, what does that tell you? The market is pricing in the risks associated with this stock that's what!
There comes a time when stocks like this actually have start delivering on the hype that management and it's followers create and TZL is now in that position, so until it does actually start reaching some of these forecasts they mean very little imo.

This is the problem with chartist's. They think that price and volume represents everything. Watch how TZ unfolds and you will see that it is fundamental analysis, and not t/a, which shows the unpolished diamonds.

Due to the illiquid nature of TZL it is near on impossible to trade off the charts. And while I may trade with charts most of my longer term investments are done via basic forms of FA analysis but losers are still cut very quickly.

SMA, NWH, MMS, MND, CCP are all stocks I've used this method on and are all now free held. So while you've been holding onto a losing stock I've been building a free held portfolio that provides some income as well as letting me have my original capital to re-invest as I see fit. Hence my comment about opportunity cost.

In my opinion there is no stock on the ASX which is as undervalued as TZL. But let's see what eventuates over the future, and see who is proved right.

lol, again, I don't really care whether this stock goes to 1c or $2 from here and I'm not saying it will go either way so if you're right good on you, all I'm saying is there are better ways to manage investments on the stock market.

If I ever do see any sort of opportunity that out weighs the risks with TZL I will look at investing in it but atm the risks are too much imo.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Yeah the fact the company had to borrow $4 million @ 10% pa "to ensure the on-going viability of the Company in the first instance" & "commence the implementation of its plans" isn't a problem at all, it's balance sheet must be strong as. If you think there is no risk of this company going under you are deluding yourself imo.
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100714/pdf/01079163.pdf

There you go again, and end up providing another example of what I meant by you not looking into matters enough before casting judgement. If you looked into things just a little further, you would have seen that $4.1m is from TZ's largest shareholder (QVT) and will almost certainly be by the way of convertible notes. The same shareholder has already converted $12m of debt (convertible notes) into shares at $1 only 6 months ago. So in effect it is not much different to a placement that is commonplace for many stocks, and is in effect an endorsement of TZ's prospects

lol, just look back through this thread and see how many forecasts & bullish predictions have failed to eventuate.

...yet. Investing is for the long term. Let's not confuse a start line as a finish line.

The market is forward looking and look at the way the sp has headed over the last 2 years, what does that tell you? The market is pricing in the risks associated with this stock that's what!

No. It tells nothing. Once again, if you had researched TZ, you would have found that the former Chairman (and his schoolmate who is also in court as a defendant) has disposed off and had a margin call on all of his stock - hence the sell down since 96c! (It represents 3/4 of the volume!) This is the same Chairman who has had a $13m claim by the company against him, being heard in court. The very same chairman who has been facing ASIC in court over the past few months.

Hence the buying opportunity!

This may help you if you do decide to hold off judgement until you scratch below the surface:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/asic-deepens-freeze-20100719-10hxi.html

There comes a time when stocks like this actually have start delivering on the hype that management and it's followers create and TZL is now in that position, so until it does actually start reaching some of these forecasts they mean very little imo.

Another example of lack of research. The current board have been charge for 1 year. They inherited a company with no money (see TZ's claim in the above link), no accounts, and customer relationships destroyed. The ones which you are judging the company on have been reconstructed using a forensic accountant.

The CEO has been with TZ for 3 months! Any chance of giving him a little more time?

Due to the illiquid nature of TZL it is near on impossible to trade off the charts. And while I may trade with charts most of my longer term investments are done via basic forms of FA analysis but losers are still cut very quickly.

Good luck if that works for you and gives some form of income. Personally, I've done very well from identifying undervalued stocks and loading up on them at rock bottom prices. I would much rather wait 5 years for a 100x return on my capital, than have dibby amounts of income each week which are also not guaranteed.

SMA, NWH, MMS, MND, CCP are all stocks I've used this method on and are all now free held. So while you've been holding onto a losing stock I've been building a free held portfolio that provides some income as well as letting me have my original capital to re-invest as I see fit. Hence my comment about opportunity cost.

Freecarrying is a silly strategy in my eyes. You can just as easily end up with some free stock that goes nowhere. If you trust your judgement, then there is no need to freecarry, unless of course you need you capital back because you trade for income. I think people 'freecarry' because it makes them feel good about having stock which they didn't pay for.

lol, again, I don't really care whether this stock goes to 1c or $2 from here and I'm not saying it will go either way so if you're right good on you, all I'm saying is there are better ways to manage investments on the stock market.

Thanks, and you are entitled to your opinion, but I have done very well over the years with my own strategy which has returned me many many returns even through bear markets. No offence, but I think I will pass on your advice

If I ever do see any sort of opportunity that out weighs the risks with TZL I will look at investing in it but atm the risks are too much imo.

That is fair enough, but you are in no position to judge whether the risks outweigh the rewards unless you research TZL fully, which you have not done, as evidenced by the examples further up. TZ is a very complex story which should not be taken on face value.

Scratching the surface with your research means that you will always have been cost opportunity. The market is not sane. Just as there are extremely overvalued stocks, there are also seriously undervalued ones. T/A will not show you these, as that is relying on the market always being correct. Only deep fundamental research will help you make an informed decision. If you don't spend enough time on this, I wouldn't even bother with the T/A.

Nomore4s, I hope you do follow this over the next few months, as I think there is a major lesson which you could learn here, and that is price action can be seriously misleading.

 

[Sean K]

I have averaged down since $4, with over half of my shares being acquired around 40cent. I now have close to 1 million shares, at an average of about 60c. This pyramiding is a strategy which will work for me .

With all due respect you are in a position now to totally destroy your life and your family's.

This is an utter disaster.

I have followed this for a very long time and followed all the comments and made my reservations some time ago.

For your sake, I hope it survives.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

With all due respect you are in a position now to totally destroy your life and your family's.

This is an utter disaster.

I have followed this for a very long time and followed all the comments and made my reservations some time ago.

For your sake, I hope it survives.

Thanks Kennas. Your concern is appreciated but I suspect that you've not followed things closely over the past few months. I would say that currently TZ is in a better position they've ever been. Quite simply TZ are now selling solutions. Like I said, TZ is going to be a lesson for the chartists that price is not always an indicator.

 

[nomore4s]

There you go again, and end up providing another example of what I meant by you not looking into matters enough before casting judgement. If you looked into things just a little further, you would have seen that $4.1m is from TZ's largest shareholder (QVT) and will almost certainly be by the way of convertible notes. The same shareholder has already converted $12m of debt (convertible notes) into shares at $1 only 6 months ago. So in effect it is not much different to a placement that is commonplace for many stocks, and is in effect an endorsement of TZ's prospects

The fact is TZL still needed the money "to ensure the on-going viability of the Company in the first instance" & "commence the implementation of its plans", cutting things pretty fine there wouldn't you say?

Also in that announcement they don't sound overly confident of making their forecasts, seem to already be providing excuse for not hitting them.

Anyway I'm done with this conversation, good luck with your investment.

 

[trainspotter]

Originally Posted by UBIQUITOUS
I have averaged down since $4, with over half of my shares being acquired around 40cent. I now have close to 1 million shares, at an average of about 60c. This pyramiding is a strategy which will work for me .

Good luck UBI ! May the force be with you on this one. I mean this sincerely BTW. I hope you do make good ...... truly.

Quick maths lesson .... 1 million shares at 60 cents is $600,000 AUD right?

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Good luck UBI ! May the force be with you on this one. I mean this sincerely BTW. I hope you do make good ...... truly.

Quick maths lesson .... 1 million shares at 60 cents is $600,000 AUD right?

Hey TS, gee that's some nice genuine sentiment from somebody who been demonstrating a certain amount of resentment towards me on the property thread. I'm flattered that you followed me here to wish me financial wellbeing! It's a little creepy, but I'm flattered nonetheless!

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

The fact is TZL still needed the money "to ensure the on-going viability of the Company in the first instance" & "commence the implementation of its plans", cutting things pretty fine there wouldn't you say?

Also in that announcement they don't sound overly confident of making their forecasts, seem to already be providing excuse for not hitting them.

Anyway I'm done with this conversation, good luck with your investment.

Reality check: most capital raisings for microcap companies are 'to ensure their ongoing viability'. Don't tell me that you didn't know this, and I'm betting that you have traded some of these stocks. Now want would have happened if your stock had gone directly into a suspension and then been declared insolvent? Your stops certainly wouldn't gave saved you.

As for you point on TZ not meeting targets, perhaps you should start looking at the most recent release of a company. For TZ, this would have shown you 'Both of our businesses are on plan to meet our first quarter targets'. Now tell me again about your theory on them already providing excuses?

Research Research Research

As for

 

[oldblue]

Like I said, TZ is going to be a lesson for the chartists that price is not always an indicator.

On the contrary, when the charts start to show some sustained improvement you can be pretty sure that TZL's prospects are on the up.

I'm staying on the sidelines until then.

 

[nomore4s]

I thought I was done with this conversation but it looks like I can't help myself.

Freecarrying is a silly strategy in my eyes. You can just as easily end up with some free stock that goes nowhere. If you trust your judgement, then there is no need to freecarry, unless of course you need you capital back because you trade for income. I think people 'freecarry' because it makes them feel good about having stock which they didn't pay for.

Yeah averaging down until you've got over a million shares in an illiquid company that is lucky to have 100,000 shares a day traded and then still be around 40% down on that investment and now needing it to pretty much double it's sp to get back to b/e is a lot better strategy

Reality check: most capital raisings for microcap companies are 'to ensure their ongoing viability'. Don't tell me that you didn't know this, and I'm betting that you have traded some of these stocks. Now want would have happened if your stock had gone directly into a suspension and then been declared insolvent? Your stops certainly wouldn't gave saved you.

If I do trade those types of companies which is very rarely I do so with a full understanding of the risks associated, but on this thread most of your posts seem to indicate that you have conveniently turned a blind eye to the risks associated with this stock.

As it appears the only way you will now get out of this stock is if it either makes you a fortune or loses you a fortune I do hope it comes off for you.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Thanks for returning nomore4. I hope you continue to check in from time to time to watch how this unfolds.

ps A fortune to some is not a fortune to others. I hope you understand that.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

On the contrary, when the charts start to show some sustained improvement you can be pretty sure that TZL's prospects are on the up.

I'm staying on the sidelines until then.

Each to their own strategies. I'm just extremely happy that I acquired what I did and when I did as I wouldn't have been able to now, and any attempts would have sent the price into orbit! This is the current sell side:

0.380 32,988
0.490 10,913

 

[trainspotter]

Hey TS, gee that's some nice genuine sentiment from somebody who been demonstrating a certain amount of resentment towards me on the property thread. I'm flattered that you followed me here to wish me financial wellbeing! It's a little creepy, but I'm flattered nonetheless!

No problemo dude. All glory to you if you can rip the scab off this one and not even flinch ! You must clank when you walk.

Your commitment to TZL is admirable to say the least. I really do hope you do well so that way you can place all your money into property and join the "darkside" with me.

Use the force UBI ... use the force.

Just wondering .... how do you find people to take up the shares you are letting out?

P.S. If you wrote with as much passion in the property thread and gave clear and concise reasons similar to what you are doing in here then I am pretty sure my resentment levels would be a lot lower.