It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.
It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.
Getting back to the production numbers, do you guys think these large declines are most due to the shale areas in EFS wells 1 and 2 being more oily or "oilier" when compared to wet gas/condensate areas? And therefore this appears to be the natural trend.
Or is it mostly because of the way Texon is dealing with these wells?
Or both, say 50/50. Or neither, due to what's down there -- or what isn't there!
The Credit Swiss report on Aurora's website has me wanting to favour the idea of the very former.
Look at: "Shale gas and oil production profiles have THREE distinct characteristics." on p26 -- "Early decline rates can be as high as 80% in the first year (and are typically higher in oil wells than gas-condensate wells).".
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1593-24849450/CreditSuisseAnalystReport
EFS1: 1267 boepd -> 655 -> 632 (60days)Do we know yet what these declines are.
Not sure what you're implying by speculation but are you suggesting that the flows can be increased late in a well's age?It is early days and the results so far may be influenced by a series of events that will not be on going. Events such as experimenting with choke sizes for optimum levels of production, variations caused by initial early flows cleaning out drilling fluid etc. Lets wait and get the results and rely on the operators to get the best results possible. Speculating could lead one to have a glass half empty instead of a glass half full.
Not sure what you're implying by speculation but are you suggesting that the flows can be increased late in a well's age?
I'm sure they're trying to get the best results but I actually trust you guys more, even when you disagree with each other, like agentm and condog.
60 days is the accepted benchmark period.The rates available so far have not been assessed over a long enough period to determine the long term probability.
It's all there in the averages. I don't think the flow rate can be increased without affecting the well's integrity, ultimate decline and EUR.I'm suggesting that any rates of decline are speculation at this stage and that as the wells age there is most likely to be improved technology that will assist to keep that decline rate in check.
Don't hold your breath. I doubt we will see the SPP price again without some very bad news especially seeing the jump in values with the take over action in the area that is reflected in the AUT and EKA values. I've been happy to buy more at 70c, a point that I considered near enough to the bottom.
Guys i have been disapointed with this stocks performance,, Isnt there an annoucemnet due out?? i ahvent seen anything.. I can see this going back to 55 cents if not lower due to mrkt sentiment, poor buying depth, no volume, and no GOOD news.. Thoughts
Hi Nioka
I held my breath for ten days and here u go mate: TXN has commenced trading at 65.5 cents and lowest for today so far was 64.5 cents (Rights were issued at 68 cents). I am sure you have had plenty of opportunity to buy at 70 cents and I will do the same at 64 cents
Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
TXN 0.650 -4.41% 0.650 0.655 0.680 0.680 0.645 527,966
3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.
It's said in one of the broker reports that the cost of each EFS well is $8-9 million. But if TXN's working interest is 82% does this reduce what the TXN contributes to the cost? If anyone could point out where this is indicated...
Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?
Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?
3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.
And they followed that up with an announcement r.e. Olmos number 11 being drilled.
Which is great news because I'd just read this downer of a report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news
and I thought that perhaps the drop in SP wasn't just general market malaise but was drought related as well. Seeing as Texon is proceeding as planned with their drilling program I'm more confident that's not the case.
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