TXN - Texon Petroleum

Magic Man said:

The slide on this stock has been disappointing. Can we expect the stock to slide all the way back down to 0.65??

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if it breaks through 75 cents then anything could happen.. panic sellers could go crazy

also, it may just be me but i've noticed that when the price of oil is high, oil stocks generally take a hit (as the market puts all their money under their bed).. but when materials are high (gold/silver/platinum) those stocks generally sky-rocket..

it seems like a cheaper oil price, would actually be beneficial to oil stocks. it's kind of like a catch-22

geelongfan said:

if it breaks through 75 cents then anything could happen.. panic sellers could go crazy

also, it may just be me but i've noticed that when the price of oil is high, oil stocks generally take a hit (as the market puts all their money under their bed).. but when materials are high (gold/silver/platinum) those stocks generally sky-rocket..

it seems like a cheaper oil price, would actually be beneficial to oil stocks. it's kind of like a catch-22

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Geelongfan

At the end of the day, the higher the price of oil the more profit your oil company makes. Just wait for quarterly and cashflow reports and watch the buyers stack up.

I would'nt like to see oil go up any further than what it is now though that would take a huge toll on the american economy IMO, thier already complaining about gas getting near $4 a gallon.

Good morning all

This TXN thread looks like a bit quiet compared to other days.

Any way I am sharing a document published about Director unloading his shares.

John Armstrong sold 1.25 million shares at 80 cents. Very clever mode by a director when every one wants to buy.

I have to go back to drawing board and do my own research updated so that I can analyse why Joh sold such a significant chunk.

One thing I noticed in ASF not exclusive related to TXN that the file uploading become very efficient and easier (Good work Joe)

Miner said:

I have to go back to drawing board and do my own research updated so that I can analyse why Joh sold such a significant chunk.

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I noted the other day that both he and his wife were able to take up the SPP. Not as many as he sold. Maybe they decided it was time to splurge a million bucks on new digs. I doubt that he is exiting TXN at this stage but even directors need money apart from their investment in one company. It would be interesting to know what he spent it on if it is for an alternative investment. Maybe he met up with Agent and headed for the casino to celebrate and had a bad trot.

the quarterly was just released.. bad day to release it.. with most o&g stocks taking a hammering

TXN now 5% down for the day at 75 cents..

When I posted my last one in the morning I noticed the Quarterly report was published, another director sold out 3.35 milion shares at 80 cents (David Mason) whereas chose to buy only acquired 9,228 shares at 65 cents for his children.

On the same day TXN report published directors selling shares of 3.35 million (David Mason) and 1.25 millions (John Armstrong) begs some innocent questions than just encashing the opportunity to make money.

Yes, I do agree that directors invest to make money to sell on good time. I am just questioning the time line of sale, coincidence, share drop down by 5% and publishing the quarterly report - all on 29 April. I hope Keith Neilson (the famous publisher of directors selling / buying news letter Insider Traders) would analyse this in the Hawke Eyes .

Probably it is time for me to sit back and not to watch TXN story for a while, notwithtanding it has lot many good stories and good projects IMO.

DYOR

i think the directors were just exercising some options.. they are not going to let a great deal of cash slip through their hands for no reason.. either way, it isn't a huge portion of their holdings and the management of the company thus far is the only thing i am not even concerned about in the slightest. this is a well led and directed company that is honest and forthright IMO. just ride this bump out and we will be smooth sailing a month from now

Miner said:

When I posted my last one in the morning I noticed the Quarterly report was published, another director sold out 3.35 milion shares at 80 cents (David Mason) whereas chose to buy only acquired 9,228 shares at 65 cents for his children.

On the same day TXN report published directors selling shares of 3.35 million (David Mason) and 1.25 millions (John Armstrong) begs some innocent questions than just encashing the opportunity to make money.

Yes, I do agree that directors invest to make money to sell on good time. I am just questioning the time line of sale, coincidence, share drop down by 5% and publishing the quarterly report - all on 29 April. I hope Keith Neilson (the famous publisher of directors selling / buying news letter Insider Traders) would analyse this in the Hawke Eyes .

Probably it is time for me to sit back and not to watch TXN story for a while, notwithtanding it has lot many good stories and good projects IMO.

DYOR

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Got to say i wasnt overly impressed with the quarterly.

Market was in a bad mood, guess we will see the true reaction next week. I certainly found the AUT quarterly to be monumnetally more impressive. Lets hope some updates this quarter will sure up more confidence in TXN.

condog said:

. I certainly found the AUT quarterly to be monumnetally more impressive.

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The difference between the two is that AUT has those reported results already priced into its SP and some. TXN still has to get its current results priced into theirs. I see much more romm for improvement in TXN than in AUT.

nioka said:

The difference between the two is that AUT has those reported results already priced into its SP and some. TXN still has to get its current results priced into theirs. I see much more romm for improvement in TXN than in AUT.

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I'd like to see some improvement in both, while the dow goes up every day this Aussie market is just depressing.

nioka said:

The difference between the two is that AUT has those reported results already priced into its SP and some. TXN still has to get its current results priced into theirs. I see much more romm for improvement in TXN than in AUT.

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know what your saying and yes "if" TXN can produce the goods, TXN's upside is better, no doubts about it.

But AUT is imo more certain, and looking at the dominos stacking up for sucees, they are all about to fall in perfect place for a massive re-rating imo.

Certainty vs Risk Reward. I offloaded a heap of TXN yesterday to buy more AUT. Ive still got some TXN and HOG, but right now i see AUT getting ready for serious value adding by the companies results. results speak much louder then words, and the results are about to flood in.

Miner said:

When I posted my last one in the morning I noticed the Quarterly report was published, another director sold out 3.35 milion shares at 80 cents (David Mason) whereas chose to buy only acquired 9,228 shares at 65 cents for his children.

On the same day TXN report published directors selling shares of 3.35 million (David Mason) and 1.25 millions (John Armstrong) begs some innocent questions than just encashing the opportunity to make money.

Yes, I do agree that directors invest to make money to sell on good time. I am just questioning the time line of sale, coincidence, share drop down by 5% and publishing the quarterly report - all on 29 April. I hope Keith Neilson (the famous publisher of directors selling / buying news letter Insider Traders) would analyse this in the Hawke Eyes .

Probably it is time for me to sit back and not to watch TXN story for a while, notwithtanding it has lot many good stories and good projects IMO.

DYOR

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Miner - Do read the Company's statutory reports.

As at 31 March 2011, there were 4.7m options at 50c and 3m at 75c due to expire next Sunday. The directors have been spacing the exercise and sale - they would need A$4.6m to exercise and hold and perhaps they don't have A$4.6m in cash accounts.

condog said:

know what your saying and yes "if" TXN can produce the goods, TXN's upside is better, no doubts about it.

But AUT is imo more certain, and looking at the dominos stacking up for sucees, they are all about to fall in perfect place for a massive re-rating imo.

Certainty vs Risk Reward. I offloaded a heap of TXN yesterday to buy more AUT. Ive still got some TXN and HOG, but right now i see AUT getting ready for serious value adding by the companies results. results speak much louder then words, and the results are about to flood in.

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I agree that both are undervalued and I agree that AUT's development programme is far more advanced and de-risked. But TXN will be more responsive to news. I'm holding both positions. It's worth keeping in mind the EFS net acreage positions of the two companies (verses their respective market capitalisations) and also the fact that TXN is looking at the other formations.

TXN has about 1/7th the mkt cap, 1/3rd the net acreage but 1/2 the shares in issue. Both are cashed up for current drilling programmes.

i look at how people trade a share

over the last few months the daily amount of shares shorted on AUT has been increasing, lately its about 30 to 40% of daily trades being a short. so the feeling i get is that those whom short, and they tend to be well researched,, see a huge advantage in trading aut for that reason

lol.. now its evident the txn thread has become an aut thread, with both companies being opposite in terms of risk reward and how they are traded and how that impacts a share.

we know txn is an operator and has total control of operations in term of timing and development and will be expanding into many new plays and fields, its run by what i call real oilmen, guys whom have had a lifetime of oil experience in texas. and whom are looking at shallow oil, low cost verticls, high return for investment plays which are well sourced thru 3d's at sietel. real real clever stuff going on with texon.

they are moving office, employing more staff, gettin real busy.. i like it a lot!!

we know aut is totally a EFS farm in, no plans of becoming an opeator and is totally locked into the planning of hilcorp. and its restrictions are of course pieline availability and oil disposal restrictions, and ability to hold out acreages. spent a lot of time in meetings yesterday discussig those issues for karnes live oak and dewitt counties. after being there physically i know where the problems are and have seen with my own eyes where it is at.

when you think of how a play suddenly becomes "the play" like the barnet shale, then all of a sudden other plays become hot!! i am researching a few very new plays, not announced by anyone and not discussed anywhere.. imho things can change in heart beat in texas and often do, rigs can go elsewhere, technology changes everything.. and i have seen it happen to the barnett and imho its unwise to believe that it cant happen or wont happen right now in texas to many of the hot plays.. to think unconventional is ok, but also think of improvements in conventional and be wise.. if those that take care of your investment are not talking about what the upside and DOWN sides are, then think of them yourself and make sure they are out of the frame. imho you should always stand by your own research.

i dont own a single share long on AUT in my portfolio, but i am following the short situation and can see that as a nice way to go myself.. but thats based on my own research..

about 12 - 13 mill txn traded since the ssp and i have been accumulating

the overhang is thinning down somewhat. i expect it to continue for a while longer

if your trading out, all the best and thanks for the prices.. those new to the share and accumulating like many here,, lets just see how soon $2 arrives. imho once the efs value comes into play and the wilcox happens, txn will be a different profile than today

best of luck to the sellers and buyers

Having experts like Hilcorp doing the operations is an advantage, you said so your self multiple times when you bought into AUT in 2010.

They have done an excellent job and so far they have been brilliant in the recruiting of frac crews etc. The same cant be said of TXN. Look at the delay they faced waiting for thier crew. They where not an in house crew, or they wouldnt have had to wait.

On the flip side have a look at the Hilcorp recriutment and HR team that have als sorts of staff incentives and bonuses to award and retain excellence. Their in the game for keeps and they arent doing so with fools.

TXN hopefully will come good, and i agree with esteon on the value proposition that "may" be on offer. I just found it hard to justfy holding such a huge parcel when i was dissapointed with the quarterly, yet i nearly fell of my seat when i read the AUT quarterly with 35 wells flowing to sales by end of may. PResently theres only 25 odd. Theyre going to 5 rigs and two and a half full time frac crews.

I still hold some TXN, about a 5th of what i had, its still a decent parcel, i just assessed in the current "cold" market i wanted less risk and will wait till TXN gets some more oomph behind it. Watching with lots of interest and ready to pounce if needed. fingers crossed.

Agent its comments like these below by you one of the reasons i dont by the constant banter against AUT for having hilcorp as its operator. Wasnt that long ago you, esteon, nioka, rambling and saf where toasting the brilliance of hilcorp and the fantastic result of getting them as operator. To me id love them to be operator of TXN. Thered be no drill delays.

Post by agentm 4711 on page 236 of ADI thread

looking forward to hilcorp doing its thing. i look at who they employ, who they have hired in the recent months and my research is telling me they are financing and employing and hiring along a frame work that indicates expansion,,, waiting to see the indications of that research becoming publicly announced

good luck to all holders in the coming weeks.. hilcorp express imho left the station some time ago some 400% ago.. lol... and is gaining momentum

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Post by agentm 4686 on page 235 of ADI thread

left the station week or so ago.. but its also apparent it is gaining momentum..

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Then this

Agentm said:

saf delivers more


agentm,
Also a more comprehensive note from Mooodys which confirms the very solid nature of Hilcorp ´s debt. Seems to be a very well run company with a Houston billionaire at the helm.

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Agentm said:

the advent of a brilliant partner such as hilcorp whom are totally capable of dealing with a project this size, and with the slck water frac treatments imho i think aut with its acreages are surely going to be temptation for many??ops atm in the adi ami

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Agentm said:

all aboard for the sugarkane hilcorp express

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Agentm said:

i guess the clever will take something from the excellent research on hilcorp saf posted.. if you dont get it then perhaps just sit back and look out for some pretty big announcements in the near term as the show cranks up..

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Agentm said:

imho the result is exceptional. and hilcorp imho will go full steam ahead.. look out karnes county!!

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Agebt i just cant get my head around the way you completely do uturns on things you say. As clearly outlined above when you wher in AUT and ADI, you proffessed hilcorp as the best with the above and many many many more posts sayign how lucky we where to have hilcorp as operator.

Now today hilcorp has done nothing wrong and infact proven to be the excellent operator you where saying before we even knew. They havent put a foot wrong.

and then contrast that with this posted above, you say today

by Agent yesterday.

hey slick

37% shorted on aut yesterday..maybe some texans are listening to me..

pipelines are really interesting.. they look to be a while off

dewitt looks to be way ahead of karnes and live oak


trucks are at capacity,, as most can only do 3 trips to corpus, 3 hours to get there, good question though.

i think as wells go in, the ability to deal with oil will be a huge problem.. its evident that things are way out of contol now

wells are going in with zero experienced crews

things are going nuts on the leasing side and leases are expiring with no wells drilled

its a case of all operators seeing lease owners not signing as they see problems

some efs wells there in the karnes dewitt region are real bad.. as operators see crews screw up.. not a case of all operations going smooth at all

imho be wary of stories being told.. if your not an operator you have zero control on what may happen on the ground..

keep an eye on aussie small caps whom are operating and also going for vertical oil.. really a brillint startegy,, you will see why soon imho

keep safe!!

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I just dont get why you change so blatently your opinioons to reflect your stock choices. Its not a very good thing to be doing if you want people to believe what you say.

Are we to think that everything you told us last year was garbage. Or are we to believe everything your telling us today contradicts everything you told us 8 months ago. Yet for no apparent reason.

Agent I agree with your earlier words and i think the evidence speaks louder then the rumours. In your words

Originally Posted by Agentm
the advent of a brilliant partner such as hilcorp whom are totally capable of dealing with a project this size, and with the slck water frac treatments imho i think aut with its acreages are surely going to be temptation for many??

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Condog i hear what your saying in regards to Agentm's turn around & completely agree. However, i also recall you yourself backing Agentm when i made i comment on Agentm being bias toward ADI management & their decisions.
Much the same is happening now the only difference is your feeling it.
I also recall Agentm back then on how he thought that EKA was the better safer company with their ability to manage & control their smaller acerages than AUT. Look where they are now.
Be interested to hear what you think about EKA?
We all have our favourites & thats why turnaround with Agentm.

jancha said:

Condog i hear what your saying in regards to Agentm's turn around & completely agree. However, i also recall you yourself backing Agentm when i made i comment on Agentm being bias toward ADI management & their decisions.
Much the same is happening now the only difference is your feeling it.
I also recall Agentm back then on how he thought that EKA was the better safer company with their ability to manage & control their smaller acerages than AUT. Look where they are now.
Be interested to hear what you think about EKA?
We all have our favourites & thats why turnaround with Agentm.

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Right now they are probably all good value, given the irrational beast of the market lately.

Yes we do have our favourites, but when you speak with supposed conviction like agent does you get egg all over your face when you then speak with conviction in a completely contradictory and opposite manner.

One thing that is evident is that this play is still moving at a lightning fast speed. The frac designs, land leasing approach, lease spacing and lease shapes are all ever changing. Technology is getting better and more plays are getting white hot as we speak.

It is almost unfair to compare what one company did 8 months ago to what the same company's relationships are doing now. If I knew then what I do now I'd have drilled my own Wilcox/Eagle Ford well already. It's such a volatile environment down here still, and will be for years.

I can't really comment on Hilcorp except that they are a huge company, have been historically successful offshore, and are private. I think anyone associated with them should be glad they are due to Hilcorp's financial power. Since the Deepwater Horizon explosion the BP offshore politics has fed the onshore shale plays even furthur. I'll even stretch to say that recent speculative futures trading because of the Haynseville/EFS play has contributed to why we are paying $4.00/gallon today. Wall Street has all but just begun to wrap its yankee brain around oil and gas investments in the EFS IMHO. There are stupid amounts of money being made and yet to be made here.