TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

[Value Collector]

Buying BRK in the next down turn ( not right now ) seems the logical play to me , maybe i am oversimplifying it . I get it that BRK has a lot of cash and that will help its performance against SPX during a selldown of note . Buffet is churning BRK cash through Treasury Bills which makes total sense given the 5.3% rate available atm . Maybe this is an option for cash if you are waiting/expecting a market capitulation ?

The thing is no one really knows when the next big down turn is, Berkshire is kind of an each way bet, it’s a big bag of good businesses producing steady cash flow, but also a growing pile of cash getting ready to deploy.

I am not trading Berkshire, I pretty much am a buy and hold on Berkshire for my life, with the idea that I use it as a compounding machine that I might draw down on one day if my other assets or super are exhausted.

 

[Value Collector]

It is great to hear a honest appraisal, at the end of the day Musk has driven Tesla to be an extremely successful company. I doubt it would have survived without him, so giving him a payout reflective of that success is appropriate IMO.
There are plenty of other successful founders of companies that have a similar outcome to Musk, whether he or they build on that wealth is yet to be seen.

It’s the total amount I find repugnant.

 

[sptrawler]

It’s the total amount I find repugnant.

That's fair enough, obviously 72% of shareholders don't agree with you.
I know some CEO' and company directors, I feel should have been chucked in the can, they move from company to company destroying value yet still pull a salary.
It takes all kinds, at least Musk has value added, I wouldn't have minded owning the shares back in 2018 and if I did I would have agreed with the bonus.
If I had bought them recently, I probably wouldn't be happy with the bonus, it all depends on the individuals circumstances 28% aren't happy probably a lot of them haven't made much yet.
Who knows

 

[Value Collector]

That's fair enough, obviously 72% of shareholders don't agree with you.

you have to remember in that 72% figure are a lot of people that voted yes for many reasons that are not rational, eg...

1, Because they are fan boys.
2, they saw it as government interference and just vote against that even against their own self interest.
3, They don't actually understand the numbers.
4, they think stock options are free.
5, they responded to the fear mongering nature of the letter to share holders.
6. they chairman of the board voted their shares.

I could see on all the Tesla you tube channels etc I follow, people that know a lot about cars but zero about finances were heavily ramping the vote yes campaign.

28% of share holders voting against a CEO pay package is still a huge deal, any rational board would take that as a big kick in the butt. I remember the coca-cola board of directors changing their pay deal because a higher number of votes came in as "abstain" than normal.

 

[Value Collector]

@sptrawler

Compare Musk accepting this pay packet to they way real share holder friendly Managers like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger think, They wrote this in the "owners Manual" for their shares back in the day, and lived it from then on.

"Charlie and I cannot promise you results. But we can guarantee that your financial fortunes will move in lockstep with ours for whatever period of time you elect to be our partner. We have no interest in large salaries or options or other means of gaining an "edge" over you. We want to make money only when our partners do and in exactly the same proportion. Moreover, when I do something dumb, I want you to be able to derive some solace from the fact that my financial suffering is proportional to yours."

To me Musk is now forever tainted, he has sold down his Tesla stock to run off and play games at Twitter/X and then panicked that his voting interest declined, and then clipped all the other share holders to claw back his holding again.

Tesla no longer meets number 3 in the value investing check list anymore, yes musk has talent, but he lacks integrity in my opinion.

 

[JohnDe]

That's fair enough, obviously 72% of shareholders don't agree with you.
I know some CEO' and company directors, I feel should have been chucked in the can, they move from company to company destroying value yet still pull a salary.
It takes all kinds, at least Musk has value added, I wouldn't have minded owning the shares back in 2018 and if I did I would have agreed with the bonus.
If I had bought them recently, I probably wouldn't be happy with the bonus, it all depends on the individuals circumstances 28% aren't happy probably a lot of them haven't made much yet.
Who knows

It’s like the YES referendum, 71% said NO. But the 29% act as if the majority didn’t understand what the vote was about, and that the 71% where either tricked or are ignorant.

It’s always the loud left socialist minority crying and not accepting the outcome. It’s gone too far, and is now affecting the prosperity of 1st world nations while third world countries like China and Indonesia watch with a smile and continue following the old ways.

Personally I’m over it. It’s ok for governments to tax us for their ridiculous greening policies but ok for India and China to build coal fired power stations for another 100 years. It’s ok for government to blow tax dollars on unfinished projects but no good for shareholders to vote against the grain because it hurts some soft lefties feelings.

The first world has gone mad.

 

[sptrawler]

@sptrawler

Compare Musk accepting this pay packet to they way real share holder friendly Managers like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger think, They wrote this in the "owners Manual" for their shares back in the day, and lived it from then on.

"Charlie and I cannot promise you results. But we can guarantee that your financial fortunes will move in lockstep with ours for whatever period of time you elect to be our partner. We have no interest in large salaries or options or other means of gaining an "edge" over you. We want to make money only when our partners do and in exactly the same proportion. Moreover, when I do something dumb, I want you to be able to derive some solace from the fact that my financial suffering is proportional to yours."

To me Musk is now forever tainted, he has sold down his Tesla stock to run off and play games at Twitter/X and then panicked that his voting interest declined, and then clipped all the other share holders to claw back his holding again.

Tesla no longer meets number 3 in the value investing check list anymore, yes musk has talent, but he lacks integrity in my opinion.

Are you comparing an investment vehicle, with a development vehicle and fund managers, with visionary leader of product development and direction?
Investing in existing companies and technologies and having a fairly benign role, as opposed to be a person who actively invests in and is pivotal in new ideas, technology and social medium, I would have thought he would consume and require far more personal money.
As Twitter has shown.
Musk is a wild card, most of the sharholders are true believers, time will tell.

https://insideevs.com/news/723346/elon-musk-optimus-25-trillion/

From the article:
It's not clear just how long Musk believes it will take Tesla to hit $25 trillion valuation. During the call, the CEO agreed with recent price targets published by Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest. Wood's targets would set a price of around $2,600 per share by 2029—making its market cap around $8 trillion—and was a prediction based on Tesla's yet-to-launch robotaxi business being successful.

The stock closed at $183.57 on Thursday.

Divesting Tesla into multiple different business units seems to be the key to its perceived value. From energy storage to solar—and soon robotaxis, robots, and rolling data centers—investors see Tesla as more of a tech company that builds cars. In a recent note by a J.P. Morgan analyst, investors were worried that Tesla could be valued like "just another automaker" if CEO Elon Musk's pay package were to fail and he was to depart the company.

It's hard to overstate just how ambitious of a goal this is. However, Musk believes that Tesla's upper hand is being able to move more quickly than other companies and ultimately produce a superior product. The automaker predicts it will have "a few thousand" Optimus robots performing various tasks in its factories by the end of 2025. Then again, "end of the year" is often code for "at some point, maybe" in Muskworld.

 

[Value Collector]

Are you comparing an investment vehicle, with a development vehicle and fund managers, with visionary leader of product development and direction?
Investing in existing companies and technologies and having a fairly benign role, as opposed to be a person who actively invests in and is pivotal in new ideas, technology and social medium, I would have thought he would consume and require far more personal money.
As Twitter has shown.
Musk is a wild card, most of the sharholders are true believers, time will tell.

https://insideevs.com/news/723346/elon-musk-optimus-25-trillion/

From the article:
It's not clear just how long Musk believes it will take Tesla to hit $25 trillion valuation. During the call, the CEO agreed with recent price targets published by Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest. Wood's targets would set a price of around $2,600 per share by 2029—making its market cap around $8 trillion—and was a prediction based on Tesla's yet-to-launch robotaxi business being successful.

The stock closed at $183.57 on Thursday.

Divesting Tesla into multiple different business units seems to be the key to its perceived value. From energy storage to solar—and soon robotaxis, robots, and rolling data centers—investors see Tesla as more of a tech company that builds cars. In a recent note by a J.P. Morgan analyst, investors were worried that Tesla could be valued like "just another automaker" if CEO Elon Musk's pay package were to fail and he was to depart the company.

It's hard to overstate just how ambitious of a goal this is. However, Musk believes that Tesla's upper hand is being able to move more quickly than other companies and ultimately produce a superior product. The automaker predicts it will have "a few thousand" Optimus robots performing various tasks in its factories by the end of 2025. Then again, "end of the year" is often code for "at some point, maybe" in Muskworld.

I am comparing a share holder friendly way of operating a business, eg Berkshire Hathaway vs a company that had a management trying to extract as many billions as they can.

Whether the tech involved is cutting edge or not is besides the point,

1, both Warren and Elon came to investors asking for money they can take away and build their dream company.

2, Both Warren and Elon used that money effectively and grew a company that made their personal stock holding in that company grow in value to 100’s of Billions.

3, But only Elon, not happy with simply have his own shares grow to be worth hundreds of billions, set up a pay deal to clip 15% of the value of every other share holder that put their money in a super high risk.

As I said, I have no issue with management of any company being paid for their labour, but at a certain point it goes beyond rational pay and is just ripping off the other non managing owners.

Remember Tesla has never earned $56 Billion, and the share price is a high as it is not just because of the work Elon did in the past that he deserves to be paid for, it’s high because people expect the company to keep growing, so essentially he is being paid for growth that hasn’t actually happened yet.

 

[Value Collector]

I am comparing a share holder friendly way of operating a business, eg Berkshire Hathaway vs a company that had a management trying to extract as many billions as they can.

Whether the tech involved is cutting edge or not is besides the point,

1, both Warren and Elon came to investors asking for money they can take away and build their dream company.

2, Both Warren and Elon used that money effectively and grew a company that made their personal stock holding in that company grow in value to 100’s of Billions.

3, But only Elon, not happy with simply have his own shares grow to be worth hundreds of billions, set up a pay deal to clip 15% of the value of every other share holder that put their money in a super high risk.

As I said, I have no issue with management of any company being paid for their labour, but at a certain point it goes beyond rational pay and is just ripping off the other non managing owners.

Remember Tesla has never earned $56 Billion, and the share price is a high as it is not just because of the work Elon did in the past that he deserves to be paid for, it’s high because people expect the company to keep growing, so essentially he is being paid for growth that hasn’t actually happened yet.

This is the last thing I will say on the matter, but Charlie said it best at the start of this video.

 

[sptrawler]

As I said, I don't have any so it doesn't bother me one way or the other, 72% of shareholders decided he is worth the money. Obviously 28% didn't think so, pretty well end of story.
That's how shareholder votes work,if you don't like it, sell. Simple really.

 

[Value Collector]

That's how shareholder votes work,if you don't like it, sell. Simple really.

As I said, I did sell, before it even went to the vote.

 

[JohnDe]

Some interesting information from ARK Invest on Tesla. They were the only investment group that picked Tesla's value right at the beginning, when prices where super low.

Last Thursday, Tesla held its Annual Shareholder Meeting, during which shareholders approved for a second time Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award.3 In our view, Elon’s leadership will be critical to Tesla as transportation evolves from human centric to autonomous during the next three to four years. Based on his 2018 agreement, Elon will not be able to cash in on his options for five years post exercise, securing his leadership at Tesla during a transformation that we believe will be more meaningful than the ramp of the Model 3.​

​

During the shareholder meeting, Elon noted that the company’s Full-Self Driving (FSD) software has eliminated nearly all collisions with static objects, with each software update improving performance up to ~10x. Recently, Tesla released FSD v12.4 to a limited number of customers, removing the steering wheel nag and enabling limited hands-free rides.​

ARK Shared Its 2029 Tesla Valuation Model On The Eve Of Tesla’s Historic Shareholder Meeting​ ​

By Autonomous Technology & Robotics Team | @ARKInvest Tasha Keeney, CFA, Sam Korus, & Daniel Maguire, ACA​

Last Wednesday, we released ARK’s updated 2029 open-source Tesla valuation model and published an article detailing our assumptions.1 Most important, we estimate that its robotaxi business will generate ~90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings in 2029, as shown below. Available on GitHub,2 our open-source model incorporates 45 independent variables that users can modify to ascertain Tesla‘s expected value under different assumptions. We look forward to your feedback. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024. This ARK analysis is based on a range of data sources, which are available upon request. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modeling that reflects our biases and long-term positive view of the company. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Last Thursday, Tesla held its Annual Shareholder Meeting, during which shareholders approved for a second time Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award.3 In our view, Elon’s leadership will be critical to Tesla as transportation evolves from human centric to autonomous during the next three to four years. Based on his 2018 agreement, Elon will not be able to cash in on his options for five years post exercise, securing his leadership at Tesla during a transformation that we believe will be more meaningful than the ramp of the Model 3. During the shareholder meeting, Elon noted that the company’s Full-Self Driving (FSD) software has eliminated nearly all collisions with static objects, with each software update improving performance up to ~10x. Recently, Tesla released FSD v12.4 to a limited number of customers, removing the steering wheel nag and enabling limited hands-free rides.4 We are monitoring FSD’s progress and looking forward to Tesla’s robotaxi announcement in August. Importantly, Elon noted that Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, could be valued at ~$25 trillion in the long-term, five times more than the ~$5 trillion likely for its autonomous taxi platform.6 While our updated open-source model assumes conservatively that Tesla will not sell Optimus by 2029, our longer-term research suggests that humanoid robots represent a ~$24 trillion global revenue opportunity.7 We look forward to sharing more of our research on humanoid robots during the months and years ahead.​

 

[sptrawler]

@JohnDe they haven't included starlink and space X in the chart, cars will be a pimple on a gnats bum of Tesla's income IMO.
Telstra is signing up Starlink, so has Carnival Cruise line, people want mobile internet not fixed line which is another discussion I had when the NBN was announced (another brain fart due to explode, but is another thread).

 

[Chipp]

Facts are good

Elon Musk's Pay Package, Explained

Elon Musk's 2018 CEO Performance Award, as it is officially called, is massive, totaling $56 billion. But how did it get to be that big? Musk was given 10 years of performance targets to hit, targets that when reached would

www.barrons.com

 

[Value Collector]

@JohnDe they haven't included starlink and space X in the chart, cars will be a pimple on a gnats bum of Tesla's income IMO.
Telstra is signing up Starlink, so has Carnival Cruise line, people want mobile internet not fixed line which is another discussion I had when the NBN was announced (another brain fart due to explode, but is another thread).

Star link and space X are not part of Tesla.

When you buy Tesla shares, you buy the Tesla company only, all of Musks other businesses are private companies with separate shareholders.

 

[Value Collector]

@JohnDe

Tesla definitely has some big growth opportunities, the question I have is how much of this growth will accrue to the benefit of shareholders, and how much will be clipped by management?

I ran some numbers last night to see what would have happened if Warren Buffett had accepted a similar deal to Musk, Berkshire Hathaway is currently worth $875 Billion, and Warren Buffett owns 37% of it, But if he had the same deal Musk had, over the years he would have increased his ownership to over 95%, making him the richest guy on earth by far, but at the expense of his partners that trusted him.

The does come a point when you wonder why a Billionaire, especially one with such a loyal following of small retail investors like musk, would want to accept such large pay packets and not be happy to just be paid hundreds of millions and let the rest accrue to the little guys that supported you from the start.

 

[mullokintyre]

@JohnDe

Tesla definitely has some big growth opportunities, the question I have is how much of this growth will accrue to the benefit of shareholders, and how much will be clipped by management?

I ran some numbers last night to see what would have happened if Warren Buffett had accepted a similar deal to Musk, Berkshire Hathaway is currently worth $875 Billion, and Warren Buffett owns 37% of it, But if he had the same deal Musk had, over the years he would have increased his ownership to over 95%, making him the richest guy on earth by far, but at the expense of his partners that trusted him.

The does come a point when you wonder why a Billionaire, especially one with such a loyal following of small retail investors like musk, would want to accept such large pay packets and not be happy to just be paid hundreds of millions and let the rest accrue to the little guys that supported you from the start.

He needed the cashbto pay for Twitter(X).
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

He needed the cashbto pay for Twitter(X).

Mick

As well as to keep funding his other projects, like SpaceX. He wants humans on Mars in his lifetime, and that project takes a lot of R&D dollars.

Elon is the only person in the world with the vision and the funding to have a real go at getting humans into the next stage of exploration and colonisation.

As the famous quote says, "Space, the final frontier".

Space travel and exploration has been in my dreams since I was first able to read novels in Primary School. I doubt that I will ever get the chance to travel in space, but I believe that I will see the first living quarters built on another planet. With Elon's vision and his wealth, the possibilities are much closer.

SpaceX Mars City: Why, when, and how Elon Musk wants to build his ambitious plan​

Musk plans to build a self-sustaining city on Mars.

Ready to live on Mars? It may not happen for a while, as Elon Musk recently revealed that astronauts on the red planet could finally become reality by 2029.

The SpaceX CEO has a long-standing vision of establishing a city on the Red Planet. It would be self-sustaining, would be home to one million people, and would transform humanity into a multi-planet species. It is perhaps Musk’s most ambitious goal, one that could keep him occupied for the next three decades.

"Why are we doing this?" Musk said at the company's February 2022 Starship progress update. "I think this is an incredibly important thing for the future of life itself ... there's always some chance that something could go wrong on Earth. Dinosaurs are not around anymore!"

Musk also explained how, being a simple insurance policy, the plan is aimed at building something inspiring.

"Life can't just be about solving problems," Musk said. "There have to be things that inspire you, that move your heart. When you wake up in the morning, you're excited about the future."

But while fans originally expected to see the first humans reach March by the mid-2020s, Musk revealed on his Twitter page this week that an image with astronauts on the red planet would more likely come to life sometime in 2029.

And as recent research shows, the landscape of Mars is pretty treacherous. Astronauts will face surprise obstacles like dust collecting on solar panels, as well as tiny Mars rocks that have caused havoc with NASA’s Curiosity mission.

Here is what you need to know about Musk’s mission.

WHAT IS THE MARS CITY?​

Musk plans to build a full-size city on the surface of Mars. This would be a city open to regular people, not just scientists and researchers.

People interested in moving to Mars could pay for their flight with a loan. Once there, people would be able to pay off the loan by working in anything from iron foundries to pizzerias. Musk declared at a 2016 conference that there would be labor shortages for a long time.

This city would be free to govern itself on its own terms, as indicated by the Starlink internet service terms and conditions released in October 2020. This appears to stand in contradiction to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which states that the launch origin country is responsible for subsequent space activities. David Anderman, who served as SpaceX’s general counsel when the terms were released, suggested to Inverse in 2021 that the two documents may be set on a collision course.

Mars: ready for a city?

Musk estimated in 2019 that it would take around one million tons of cargo to build a self-sustaining city on Mars. Assuming it costs $100,000 per ton to send cargo to Mars with the upcoming Starship, that would put a Mars city’s price at around $100 billion. At the high end, Musk estimates it could cost around $10 trillion.

SpaceX may not stop with just one city, however. Paul Wooster, principal Mars development engineer for SpaceX, said at the 21st Annual International Mars Society Convention in August 2022 that SpaceX could build multiple cities:

“The idea would be to expand out, start off not just with an outpost, but grow into a larger base, not just like there are in Antarctica, but really a village, a town, growing into a city and then multiple cities on Mars."​

WHY DOES ELON MUSK WANT TO BUILD A CITY ON MARS?​

Musk’s stated aim is to transform humanity into a multi-planet species.

Over the years, he has listed reasons as to why humanity would want to expand into the universe. One theme he regularly lists is that a life-ending event on Earth could spell the end of humanity — but humanity could live on if it’s able to set up base on a new planet like Mars.

“Earth is ~4.5B years old, but life is still not multiplanetary and it is extremely uncertain how much time is left to become so,” Musk wrote on Twitter in November 2021. Beyond very worst-case scenario climate change, a surprise meteor strike could also wipe out humanity.

SpaceX concept art of a Starship taking off from Mars.

Another reason, as he suggested in September 2018, is because it’s a reason to keep on living:

“There’s so many things that make people sad or depressed about the future, but I think becoming a space-faring civilization is one of those things that makes you excited about the future.”​

In February 2022, Musk also declared that a reason for humanity to expand is because we are “life’s guardians...the creatures that we love cannot build spaceships, but we can, and we can bring them with us.”

During an April 2021 appearance covered by CNBC, Musk indicated that another reason to go back was because humanity had barely ventured into space since the lunar landings:

“It's been now almost half a century since humans were last on the moon. That's too long, we need to get back there and have a permanent base on the moon — again, like a big permanently occupied base on the moon. And then build a city on Mars to become a spacefaring civilization, a multi-planet species.”​

Musk isn’t the first person to call for humanity to colonize another planet — professor Stephen Hawking said in 2017 that humans would need to expand out within 100 years if they hoped to survive. However, astrophysicist Martin Rees said in response to Hawking and Musk that the idea was a “dangerous delusion [...] dealing with climate change on Earth is a doddle compared to making Mars habitable.”

WHEN DID MUSK FIRST GET THE IDEA FOR A MARS CITY?​

It’s hard to say when he first got this idea — Ashlee Vance’s 2015 biography claims that “by the middle of his teenage years” he’d come to see “man’s fate in the universe” as his “personal obligation.” He was inspired by science fiction novels like Douglas Adams’ Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

The book also cites Terency Beney, who went to school with Musk. Beney claims that Musk was already thinking about colonizing other planets in his early years.

In 2001, Musk attended a meeting of the non-profit Mars Society group. During the event, Musk learned about the group’s plans to send mice into space to inspire people. Musk started considering the prospect of sending them to Mars instead, an idea that eventually led to him founding SpaceX.

In 2007, before SpaceX had even launched its first rocket to orbit, Musk told Wired that in 30 years there would be a base on the Moon and Mars.

The idea took on new form in 2016, when he gave a speech at the International Astronautical Congress about his idea to make humanity into a multi-planet species.

HOW WILL ELON MUSK BUILD A CITY ON MARS?​

Central to the plan is the Starship. This fully-reusable rocket, currently under development in Texas, will enable SpaceX to send humans and cargo to Mars. The ship will be capable of launching over 100 tons or 100 people into space at a time.

Its use of liquid oxygen and methane as fuel, rather than the rocket propellant used in the Falcon 9, means explorers can fly to Mars, refuel using resources found on the planet, and fly back to Earth. The astronauts could even venture out further into space, building a planet-hopping network of refueling stations along the way.

The ship is expected to host its first flight sometime this year. While the company’s primary goal is to fly the ship from the Starbase facility in Texas, Musk has indicated that the team is also preparing to launch from Cape Canaveral in Florida should too many delays arise. This backup plan may have led to a delay to a planned expansion to Starbase.

In November 2018, Neil deGrasse Tyson declared that "a whole category of war has the potential of evaporating entirely" with planet-hopping technology. That's because humans would have the ability to venture out further and mine resources from even further away.

"In space, you have no need to fight a war, just go to another asteroid and get your resources," deGrasse said.

It’s not going to be easy. In November 2018, Musk likened the ads for going to Mars to the ads for Sir Ernest Shackleton’s expedition to the Antarctic:

“Men wanted for Hazardous Journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful. Honor and recognition in case of success.”​

Although the ads probably never existed, recent expeditions to Mars have revealed Musk may be correct about the dangers from the planet.

In December 2021, the Hope mission to Mars hosted by the United Arab Emirates encountered a dust storm. It quickly advanced the thousands of miles wide, passing over the crater containing NASA’s Perseverance rover and Ingenuity helicopter. The storm lasted until January 14.

The events showed how the weather on Mars can be surprisingly brutal, especially in comparison to the weather on Earth. Dust storms that blow over solar panels can render them less effective, depriving a space station of vital electricity.

Dust isn’t the only obstacle the astronauts will face. In April 2022, NASA revealed that the Curiosity rover had to give up its ongoing expedition route due to ventifacts — sharp rocks that could damage the rover’s wheels.

Perhaps rather aptly, the mountain Curiosity was trying to climb is called Mount Sharp.

DOES JEFF BEZOS AGREE WITH ELON MUSK’S MARS CITY IDEA?​

Not everybody in the space industry agrees with Musk’s vision. Jeff Bezos, founder of rival firm Blue Origin, prefers to build giant orbiting cities near Earth to expand humanity.

In May 2019, Bezos cited research from physicist Gerard K. O’Neill. He asked a key question: is a planetary surface the best place for humans to expand into the solar system? O’Neill decided the answer was no for three key reasons:

1. The planetary surfaces aren’t that big. Humans would maybe, at best, double the amount of available land surface.
2. They’re a long way away. A round trip to Mars would take years — the Earth and Mars align once every 22 months, and the trip itself would take a few months depending on the rocket.
3. There won’t be any real-time communications with Earth because of the distance. It takes around 20 minutes to send a signal to Mars, much slower than the tens of milliseconds it takes to communicate over the internet.

Instead, Bezos prefers to build O’Neill-style colonies in Earth’s orbit. This, he claims, could support up to one trillion humans.

Musk responded to Bezos’ vision later that month:

“Makes no sense. In order to grow the colony, you’d have to transport vast amounts of mass from planets/moons/asteroids. Would be like trying to build the USA in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean!”​

WHAT IS THE DESIGN FOR THE MARS CITY?​

During Musk’s 2017 International Astronautical Congress presentation, he revealed images of how the city may look:

SpaceX's Mars city design.

The city would begin initially with a series of bases, gradually expanding out over time.

SpaceX's concept art for how a Mars city with a Starship may look.

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST TO TAKE A SPACESHIP TO THE MARS CITY?​

Musk claimed in 2019 that a return ticket could cost around $500,000 initially, dropping to $100,000 over time. Musk’s goal in 2016 was to reach a ticket price of around the median price of a house in the United States. That would suggest people could sell their house to move to Mars.

Another option, Musk suggested, would be a personal loan. Visitors would pay off the loan by getting a job to help fill the city’s labor shortages. It’s an idea that arguably bears resemblance to 19th-century American company towns, where employees lived in a city owned by their employer. Especially in the early days, Mars may not have many choices for local employment — and you’ll need to pay off that loan for your flight.

Guenter Lang, an economics professor at Kühne Logistics University in Germany, drew this plan into question in a May 2019 interview with Inverse. After all, if you’re rich enough to go, why would you give up that luxury?

WHEN WILL SPACEX BUILD A CITY ON MARS?​

In 2017, Musk outlined an “aspirational” plan to send two cargo ships to Mars as early as 2022. It would then send four ships at the next closest approach — two crewed ships and two cargo ships — in 2024.

However, in March 2022, Musk suggested on Twitter that a more likely date for humanity to witness the first humans on Mars would perhaps be 2029. It’s also possible, however, that Musk was referencing the Moon landing that took place in 1969 — making it a round 60 years between the two feats.

Mars and Earth are at their closest around once every 26 months. The distance between the two at this time reduces to around 33.9 million miles.

In March 2019, Musk wrote on Twitter that “it’s possible to make a self-sustaining city on Mars by 2050, if we start in 5 years & take 10 orbital synchronizations.” With 26 months between synchronizations, that would mean it would take around 22 years at a minimum to build the city.

Musk has set himself the deadline of a self-sustaining Mars city with 1 million people by 2050. Musk would turn 79 years old that year.

As SpaceX has yet to even host its first orbital flight with the Starship, it seems unlikely that it will send the first cargo ships this year. If SpaceX adjusts its plans to a more realistic late 2020s deadline, it’s perhaps more possible that Musk could indeed meet his goal.

WILL ELON MUSK TERRAFORM MARS?​

Probably not in his lifetime, but he does have some ideas.

At SpaceX’s headquarters, next to the lobby, the company has two images that show a before and after of a terraformed Mars:

A terraformed Mars.

The current surface temperature on Mars is an average of minus 63 degrees Celsius, or minus 82 degrees Fahrenheit. Musk’s idea is to heat up the planet’s poles to release stores of frozen carbon dioxide. This would use a series of continuous, low fallout nuclear fusion explosions to act as artificial suns.

The idea would be to use the carbon dioxide stores to create a more hospitable atmosphere. Humans could then walk around the planet using just a breathing apparatus.

That’s the theory, at least. In practice, Bruce Jakosky and Christopher S. Edwards published a paper in the journal Nature Astronomy back in 2018 that drew that plan into question. It argued there is “not enough CO2 remaining on Mars to provide significant greenhouse warming were the gas to be emplaced into the atmosphere.”

The paper found that vaporizing Mars’ carbon-rich sedimentary rocks would release enough gas for around 12 millibars of atmospheric pressure. By comparison, Earth’s atmosphere is around 1,000 millibars at sea level.

Jakosky and Edwards publicly discussed with Musk as to whether there was enough carbon dioxide lurking beneath the surface. The three seemed to agree, however, that the technology to terraform Mars is some ways away yet.

Mars city first, then the rest later.

 

[sptrawler]

Star link and space X are not part of Tesla.

When you buy Tesla shares, you buy the Tesla company only, all of Musks other businesses are private companies with separate shareholders.

I didn't realise that, thanks for the info.

 

[sptrawler]

The does come a point when you wonder why a Billionaire, especially one with such a loyal following of small retail investors like musk, would want to accept such large pay packets and not be happy to just be paid hundreds of millions and let the rest accrue to the little guys that supported you from the start.

It's a new world VC, haven't you noticed, it is all about the "ME" now.
No matter what the issue, no matter what the cause, no matter what the social implications, everyone now feels their personal belief and ideology is paramount to everyone else'.
That's why vocal minorities are maneuvering the herd, the real problem is the vocal minority are actually growing in number, so investing will become more and more difficult.
Musk is looking after Musk, the small shareholders are hoping he will make them rich, it isn't something I'm comfortable investing in but doesn't mean it isn't a good investment.
You just have to believe a lot in Musk, he now has a lot of say in what Tesla buy and sell, not unlike FMG another of your favorites.