For sure. But like Apple, Tesla will be able to charge a premium.The problem is, the apple products, although mostly wonderfully technically advanced, are priced much higher than the plebs wish to pay.
Apple has always had a base of loyal followers (I was one , somewhat less so now), but its market penetration has remained static for years.
They will appeal to the young and well heeled, but for the poorer majority, they will settle for cheaper samsung phone or tablet, and a chromebook for home browsing.
I suspect that tesla will be the same, especially as they will be undercut by cheaper Chinese products that the bottom 75% of the population buy purely on price.
Mick
For sure. But like Apple, Tesla will be able to charge a premium.
Samsung is just as good as Apple but can't charge as much. In fact I would argue they have led Apple on many fronts that has forced Apple to match them e.g. offer screens that don't break easily (like Samsung already had).
BMW charges a premium for a car that isn't as reliable as a Toyota. If Tesla are smart, they can stay on top for years.
The problem is, the apple products, although mostly wonderfully technically advanced, are priced much higher than the plebs wish to pay.
Apple has always had a base of loyal followers (I was one , somewhat less so now), but its market penetration has remained static for years.
They will appeal to the young and well heeled, but for the poorer majority, they will settle for cheaper samsung phone or tablet, and a chromebook for home browsing.
I suspect that tesla will be the same, especially as they will be undercut by cheaper Chinese products that the bottom 75% of the population buy purely on price.
Mick
Tesla’s Investor Day Offered No Flash, All Substance
Despite mixed reviews of Tesla’s Investor Day last week, ARK’s Tasha Keeney and Sam Korus found no shortage of important and exciting news. While many investors expected a flashy glimpse of its next generation vehicle, we believe Tesla shared news more profound than a product prototype: the roadmap for continuous cost declines associated with scaling production.
In our view, Tesla is likely to deliver on interdependent actions that should reduce vehicle costs by ~50% during the next five years. First, it will produce 100% of the controllers on its next generation vehicle. Second, it will switch to a 48-volt battery architecture that should reduce power losses by 16-fold. Third, it will use local ethernet-connected controllers to reduce the complexity of the wiring harness. These electrical architecture changes should cut costs and give Tesla more control over its supply chain at the component level. They also will enable Tesla to transition its manufacturing to a parallel assembly process, slashing its manufacturing footprint and wasted time by 40% and 30%, respectively.
By reducing its factory footprint, Tesla will be able to accelerate Gigafactory production, increasing the scaling velocity of both its fleet and its data engine. Tesla’s fleet currently drives more than 120 million miles per day in total and ~100 million in full self-driving (FSD) with its most advanced driver assistance. In contrast, Cruise and Waymo each has attained one million miles driven cumulatively with no one behind the wheel on public roads. While not a perfect comparison, relative to its autonomous driving competition, Tesla vehicles have traveled ~100X the cumulative miles and have collected ~50,000X the data. According to our research, data will be critical in the race to create and scale a fully autonomous taxi service.
In short, Tesla’s vertical integration seems to have given the company an edge that may take its less-integrated competitors years—if ever—to replicate. Don’t be fooled by tepid reviews.
What voltage does it presently run at?"Tesla is likely to deliver on interdependent actions that should reduce vehicle costs by ~50% during the next five years. First, it will produce 100% of the controllers on its next generation vehicle. Second, it will switch to a 48-volt battery architecture that should reduce power losses by 16-fold. Third, it will use local ethernet-connected controllers to reduce the complexity of the wiring harness. These electrical architecture changes should cut costs and give Tesla more control over its supply chain at the component level. They also will enable Tesla to transition its manufacturing to a parallel assembly process, slashing its manufacturing footprint and wasted time by 40% and 30%, respectively."
12V, because that was the dominant voltage system used by all vehicle manufacturers. Using what is available is a lot cheaper than designing & manufacturing a product that only one company could use. Now that Tesla have brought down the cost of EV manufacturing significantly and production numbers keep increasing they can look at other aspects of design that was not practical before.What voltage does it presently run at?
I would have thought at least 24V. 16 fold reduction in losses does not sound correct.
I got the impression that they were talking about each individual cell of a tesla battery pack.What voltage does it presently run at?
I would have thought at least 24V. 16 fold reduction in losses does not sound correct.
I got the impression that they were talking about each individual cell of a tesla battery pack.
Currently, each cell runs at about 3.7 volts, lets say 4 volts, so if they use 48 volt cells, instead of 3.7, it means they need fewer cells to get the storage capacity they need. As each cell is monitored for charge, temperature, and a few other things, there is a constant balancing game going on. So to go from around 4 volts to 48 volts is a 12 fold increase in size, but there is probably a significant decrease in intercell pathways where losses occur.
There are currently two main categories of cell in production, namely the 18650, and the 21700. The former is the older of the two.
The 21700 are larger and more efficient cells, but amazingly are cheaper to produce than their 18650 cousins. but according to Tesla, it’s about 40 percent bigger in volume, in fact, but also up to 15 percent more efficient than the 18650 cells.
Mick
I think are talking about the lead acid battery, it runs at 12 volts I believe, so they are increasing the voltage by 4, which apparently is a 16 fold reduction in losses.What voltage does it presently run at?
I would have thought at least 24V. 16 fold reduction in losses does not sound correct.
No they are talking about the lead acid battery, its switching to a 48 volt lithium Ion battery.I got the impression that they were talking about each individual cell of a tesla battery pack.
Currently, each cell runs at about 3.7 volts, lets say 4 volts, so if they use 48 volt cells, instead of 3.7, it means they need fewer cells to get the storage capacity they need. As each cell is monitored for charge, temperature, and a few other things, there is a constant balancing game going on. So to go from around 4 volts to 48 volts is a 12 fold increase in size, but there is probably a significant decrease in intercell pathways where losses occur.
There are currently two main categories of cell in production, namely the 18650, and the 21700. The former is the older of the two.
The 21700 are larger and more efficient cells, but amazingly are cheaper to produce than their 18650 cousins. but according to Tesla, it’s about 40 percent bigger in volume, in fact, but also up to 15 percent more efficient than the 18650 cells.
Mick
Ok, makes sense. Current reduces by 4. Current squared by resistance is your losses.I think are talking about the lead acid battery, it runs at 12 volts I believe, so they are increasing the voltage by 4, which apparently is a 16 fold reduction in losses.
Here is the part of the presentation where they are talking about the electrics, battery talk starts at 14:15 mark, and the talking about the new electric system starts at the 16 minute marks. I am not an electrical engineer but they are talking about the car having 300 items that run on the system, and the new system not having to have heat sinks and weighing 17 kgs less etcOk, makes sense.
But if they are just talking the lead acid battery then it's only supplying I guess the instruments and maybe the AirCon so I can't imagine the cable losses would be much.
Good move though. Another edge on the other car manufacturers.
48V is slowly becoming standard for LED lighting and electronic control gear. 12V is a pain to run any distance due to volt drop (and losses) and copper is expensive.Here is the part of the presentation where they are talking about the electrics, battery talk starts at 14:15 mark, and the talking about the new electric system starts at the 16 minute marks. I am not an electrical engineer but they are talking about the car having 300 items that run on the system, and the new system not having to have heat sinks etc
My appologies, I reviewed the vid and you are correct.No they are talking about the lead acid battery, its switching to a 48 volt lithium Ion battery.
Remember we were talking on here a few months back about Teslas still having a lead acid battery that requires changing after 4 years or so when it wears out, well they are changing that to a lithium ion battery pack that will last many times longer perhaps the life of the vehicle.
Not about batteries in the Teslas but saw on the TV news tonight that Tesla is having major problems with the steering wheel parting company with the steering shaft. A most important bolt either missing or comes adrift causing the steering wheel to float free.My appologies, I reviewed the vid and you are correct.
mick
my view is Tesla has acquired the luxury trendy flag and will keep it, so a bit like Apple vs PC/Android;Good video on multitude of reasons why Tesla is leading
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