For sure. But like Apple, Tesla will be able to charge a premium.
Tesla’s Investor Day Offered No Flash, All Substance
Despite mixed reviews of Tesla’s Investor Day last week, ARK’s Tasha Keeney and Sam Korus found no shortage of important and exciting news. While many investors expected a flashy glimpse of its next generation vehicle, we believe Tesla shared news more profound than a product prototype: the roadmap for continuous cost declines associated with scaling production.
In our view, Tesla is likely to deliver on interdependent actions that should reduce vehicle costs by ~50% during the next five years. First, it will produce 100% of the controllers on its next generation vehicle. Second, it will switch to a 48-volt battery architecture that should reduce power losses by 16-fold. Third, it will use local ethernet-connected controllers to reduce the complexity of the wiring harness. These electrical architecture changes should cut costs and give Tesla more control over its supply chain at the component level. They also will enable Tesla to transition its manufacturing to a parallel assembly process, slashing its manufacturing footprint and wasted time by 40% and 30%, respectively.
By reducing its factory footprint, Tesla will be able to accelerate Gigafactory production, increasing the scaling velocity of both its fleet and its data engine. Tesla’s fleet currently drives more than 120 million miles per day in total and ~100 million in full self-driving (FSD) with its most advanced driver assistance. In contrast, Cruise and Waymo each has attained one million miles driven cumulatively with no one behind the wheel on public roads. While not a perfect comparison, relative to its autonomous driving competition, Tesla vehicles have traveled ~100X the cumulative miles and have collected ~50,000X the data. According to our research, data will be critical in the race to create and scale a fully autonomous taxi service.
In short, Tesla’s vertical integration seems to have given the company an edge that may take its less-integrated competitors years—if ever—to replicate. Don’t be fooled by tepid reviews.
What voltage does it presently run at?
12V, because that was the dominant voltage system used by all vehicle manufacturers. Using what is available is a lot cheaper than designing & manufacturing a product that only one company could use. Now that Tesla have brought down the cost of EV manufacturing significantly and production numbers keep increasing they can look at other aspects of design that was not practical before.
I got the impression that they were talking about each individual cell of a tesla battery pack.
I think are talking about the lead acid battery, it runs at 12 volts I believe, so they are increasing the voltage by 4, which apparently is a 16 fold reduction in losses.
No they are talking about the lead acid battery, its switching to a 48 volt lithium Ion battery.
Ok, makes sense. Current reduces by 4. Current squared by resistance is your losses.
Here is the part of the presentation where they are talking about the electrics, battery talk starts at 14:15 mark, and the talking about the new electric system starts at the 16 minute marks. I am not an electrical engineer but they are talking about the car having 300 items that run on the system, and the new system not having to have heat sinks and weighing 17 kgs less etc
My appologies, I reviewed the vid and you are correct.
Not about batteries in the Teslas but saw on the TV news tonight that Tesla is having major problems with the steering wheel parting company with the steering shaft. A most important bolt either missing or comes adrift causing the steering wheel to float free.
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