Triggering stop runs

[MichaelD]

Why not adapt your system to suit current conditions?

Because the system is producing exactly the results I expect it to produce in the current conditions. It was designed for optimal return from the markets over the long term. Any adaptations forced on it will lower long term system expectancy.

i.e. It's not broke so it doesn't need fixing.

 

[MRC & Co]

Because the system is producing exactly the results I expect it to produce in the current conditions. It was designed for optimal return from the markets over the long term. Any adaptations forced on it will lower long term system expectancy.

i.e. It's not broke so it doesn't need fixing.

Ok, fair point.

But this is based purely on the assumption the markets will begin trending again before you pass maximum system drawdown?

 

[MichaelD]

Ok, fair point.

But this is based purely on the assumption the markets will begin trending again before you pass maximum system drawdown?

Yes, this is correct - the explicit assumption is that maximum system drawdown will not be reached, that sufficient trends exist within all markets at all times for this to hold true.

 

[chops_a_must]

Lol.

Some people are lacking some pretty basic comprehension.

 

[Cartman]

What utter rubbish. Glad I dont work for you.

Chopso may feel the same : ----

My staff (who take a vital role in forward planning) would sack you on the spot. You would be seen as an employee who doesnt have the "culture" expected in our company. You certainly wouldnt earn a leadership role.

re the dogmatic forward looking view ---- dont agree with the parallel between the market (where we have no control) and running a private business where you pay/control the staff and impart your way of doing stuff on them (or they get fired) ----

i think forward testing is more useful than back testing --- closer to the pulse

 

[chops_a_must]

What utter rubbish. Glad I dont work for you. My staff (who take a vital role in forward planning) would sack you on the spot. You would be seen as an employee who doesnt have the "culture" expected in our company. You certainly wouldnt earn a leadership role.

It's that exact attitude that got us into this mess, and exactly the sort of attitude people like Taleb have railed against, and what I am getting at.

"It can't be any different because our models don't say it" seems pretty pervasive, even in that spiel you reeled off there.

Acknowledging that future outcomes have a basis in hope, is not the same as doing things without attributing some level of justification to decisions made. But they are both based in hope, to some extent, regardless.

What extraordinarily myopic comments! For starters, as far as long term trend following goes in shares, to narrow down to such a short time frame as the last 12 months is egregiously wrong.

It's more that he is operating the system although it is working outside its parameters, and appears to not have taken stops at certain times. To me, that is hope. "It is not a 'normal' market" therefore I will keep going with it in the hope it will work once again, is the kind of attitude I'm getting at. You see? But it was hope that started him operating his system - the hope the system would perform as he felt it should, and it is hope that is still the basis of him operating it.

By the way, I thought you were at maximum draw down in January? Or was that just one system?

 

[MichaelD]

By the way, I thought you were at maximum draw down in January?

It was close to maximum drawdown, yes, but then there was a run of winners in Iron Ore and Oil (and some other area which I forget now - fertilizers I think) which reset the counters.

 

[chops_a_must]

So by reset the counters, you mean your max drawdown isn't peak to trough but longest losing streak? Or do you mean it isn't near that thanks to those winners in between?

 

[tech/a]

If I hop in my car and put it in first gear I know I'm going to go forward.
If I have more income than expenditure then I'll have a surplus.
If I have more winners than losers OR Bigger aggregate winners than aggregate losers then I'll be profitable.

I'm not hoping that something will happen in any of the above.
I know it will----if it doesnt Ive failed,if it does I have succeeded.
Dont have to hope.
Why cant you accept that some can and do live in black and white (Success or failure) and not in areas of grey (hope)?

You can all hope if you wish. I just dont hope.
I dont hope my wife loves me---I make sure she has a great life--that works.
I dont hope I'm healthy--I look after food and exercise--I dont do stress.
I dont hope I'm successful---I take positive steps to be successful--that also works.
I dont hope my next trade is profitable---I take steps to limit risk and maximise profit---that also works.

I dont hope you all agree with me---you will or you wont--thats fine and works for me.

 

[chops_a_must]

If I put it into first, I hope the tailshaft hasn't fallen out so I can go forward.

See... there are so many steps you are missing.

You hope you'll have more income than expenditures. These are all assumptive propositions and statements that we deal with in a day to day life.

But when you break it down, you can see that there is always more underlying.

Because we don't live in black and white. Life isn't like that.

You can also replace the word "expect" with "hope" in sentences and it will still retain a very similar meaning.

 

[MRC & Co]

You can all hope if you wish. I just dont hope.

I dont hope I'm healthy--I look after food and exercise--I dont do stress.

That's a big call.

I hope your healthy, many times, food, exercise and no stress won't make a difference. If you came down with something grave, I would like to hear your comments then.

The entire trading arena to me, as with all of life, is nearly completely grey.

Guess we just have completely different outlooks, so I will leave it at that.

 

[tech/a]

One question.

Has hoping ever altered an outcome for you?
If so how?
If not then whats the point of hoping?

 

[chops_a_must]

Has expecting?

 

[MRC & Co]

One question.

Has hoping ever altered an outcome for you?
If so how?
If not then whats the point of hoping?

It's simply an emotion.

I'm sure those who contract a debilitating disease, hope for a cure, does that help them? YES.

When has not hoping altered an outcome for you? Exactly what you describe you have achieved in your 'successful life' can be achieved by those who hope (I'm still unsure if it's possible to turn hope off, it is a natural instinct).

This has really got off the trading topic. ha ha. But interesting.

 

[tech/a]

Ok see both your points--well at least I hope I do.

 

[chops_a_must]

Ok see both your points--well at least I hope I do.

I hoped you were going to say that.

 

[MRC & Co]

ha ha, I hope you all have a merry xmas fellas.

I look forward to it with desire and reasonable confidence.

 

[Cartman]

ha ha, I hope you all have a merry xmas fellas.

I look forward to it with desire and reasonable confidence.

well i gotta say the last few posts were just beeudiful and merry xmas to yas all too

ps in relation to the thread topic --- what the crap was going on with the futs this arvo --- 200 point yo yo in a minute --- anyone game enuff to short the spike at the close? --- woulda been a good trade --- the yo yo was on steroids so i thought better of it --- good move

 

[MichaelD]

So by reset the counters, you mean your max drawdown isn't peak to trough but longest losing streak? Or do you mean it isn't near that thanks to those winners in between?

Max drawdown is indeed measured peak-to-trough, but since there was a run of winners a new equity peak was reached (as well as the # of losers in a row count being reset).

 

[lindsayf]

Sounds like your learning well Cartman

If you want to get on the trend, buy the HL. Fading sudden, sharp movements, is usually a good bet, but takes big ballz, going against natural instincts.

can someone spell out what "fading a sharp move" actually entails please ...is it going short into the 'hoped' for 'top' of a bull momentum run for eg??

what an enjoyable thread! have a good break all..