Triggering stop runs

[Trembling Hand]

Since I'm a punch drunk boxer on ICE

If you are reacting emotionally like this to an individual losing trade then you have a problem that needs addressing.

I don't really agree. We are emotion beings. We get frustrated, hopeful, disappointed & 100 other emotions whenever we try to achieve something, including trading.

Nothing wrong with that. It is the response and reaction to the emotions that count. In this spaced out junkie's MHO.

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh.
Just like baiting the hook when fishing eh.
When you get a bite--what a rush!

ha ha ha.

In all honesty though, being completely emotionless is not normal to me, rather than vice-versa and I would love to see someone experiencing tough times in their trading, say they didn't have one bit of emotion pass through them. That is only natural to the human psyche.

Saying those who experience emotions must not have a positive expectancy, is the typical mechanical and book junk. Complete nonsense. Tech, I respect your VSA and love most of your postings, but some of these kind of comments are just completely wrong.

 

[Cartman]

anyone that says they can trade with no emotional input is either kidding themselves or they are goddamn psychopath ----- psychopaths would make good traders but theyd probably kill their broker

Tech and Mike ---- U cant even admit that you get a little pleasure when u close out a good trade for a nice profit ??

ps I missed the short on the Euro this time cause i was still reading the forum --- this site is costing me ---- and im getting very emotional about that --- now i gotta wait for the long again -- ill be up all night at this rate

 

[MichaelD]

Tech and Mike ---- U cant even admit that you get a little pleasure when u close out a good trade for a nice profit ??

OK, I'll admit to these. A nice multi-R winner DOES make me happy...for a short time (since drawdown usually follows), and trading errors (regardless of actual $ outcome) make me upset.

None of these emotions, however, will make me deviate one iota from my trading plans.

 

[skyQuake]

OK, I'll admit to these. A nice multi-R winner DOES make me happy...for a short time (since drawdown usually follows), and trading errors (regardless of actual $ outcome) make me upset.

None of these emotions, however, will make me deviate one iota from my trading plans.

That's the crux of the issue isn't it? Emotions are fine as long as they do not overly influence how you trade. Otherwise you'll spend too much effort suppressing your emotions rather than concentrating on a trade.

 

[Cartman]

OK, I'll admit to these. A nice multi-R winner DOES make me happy...for a short time (since drawdown usually follows), and trading errors (regardless of actual $ outcome) make me upset.

None of these emotions, however, will make me deviate one iota from my trading plans.

Thankyou Michael honesty is respected ---- and i respect you are true to your plan --- i confess im still a bit naughty sometimes

 

[tech/a]

Saying those who experience emotions must not have a positive expectancy, is the typical mechanical and book junk.

Your words not mine.

Those trading a positive expectancy method will see each trade as "Doing Business".

And they will. Everyone I know who does--does.

Sure a good win gives a warm fuzzy sence of satisfaction as does taking a stop or 2,3,5,10 in a row.
Or completing a nice profitable project (in business).
Or seeing an investment property double in 3 or so years.

But the point Michael (I think) and I are making is that our decisions and the results of those decisions are not emotion based.
I dont get Pizzed off because I missed a trade or I suffered slippage. It truely is business.

 

[chops_a_must]

I don't trade hope trades.

All trading is hope. All probability theory is, is a philosophy based on hope and faith, right to the fundamental level. Every trader is basing their decisions on this.

Those trading a positive expectancy method will see each trade as "Doing Business".

It will be without emotion.

Nope. All those with a positive expectancy will be hoping it carries on into the future.

I'll answer this as well methinks.

Nope, not even for a second. A small loss simply signifies that I'm one trade closer to the inevitable big winner, which invariably comes along when least expected.

And thanks for giving the best example of hope in this thread.

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, that was my point Chops, but not put quite as well.

lol.

Hope does not mean you don't know what your doing and only have a small chance/probability, but one NEVER knows his exact probabilities or 'expectancy'. It is forever changing, it's dynamic like the markets. I think Michaels stats on his trend following system show this.

If your on a great run, you hope it continues, it's simply the markets suiting your style. If you begin to feel angry, you know it's time to take a walk or analyse your trading. Emotions are only bad if you begin revenge trading, or getting greedy. But experiencing emotions and 'feeling' is not a cardinal sin of trading as some like to make it out to be.

Ultimately, this may just come down to a discretionary V mechanical mindset.

 

[Trembling Hand]

But experiencing emotions and 'feeling' is not a cardinal sin of trading as some like to make it out to be.

Aaah!! You have crossed over to the dark side :evilburn: :vader:

 

[Trembling Hand]

LOL, "Give yourself to the dark side"

 

[chops_a_must]

Yeh, that was my point Chops, but not put quite as well.

lol.

Hope does not mean you don't know what your doing and only have a small chance/probability, but one NEVER knows his exact probabilities or 'expectancy'.

:

It's even more simple than that. The word expectatio, which is the basis of our words to do with expectancy, was a replacement for the word spes, meaning hope (de-spes = de-spair, literally, without hope) in the literature to do with probability.

And probability and decision theory was never ever meant to be quantifiable in an open ended 'game' like the markets are.

This dogmatic view that you can apply an expectation onto the future, is absolute pure nonsense. It is the most absurd of all hopes, and the markets in the last 12 months, and Nizar's blog should do more than enough to disprove this sort of nonsense.

There are those that do everything they conceivably can do to eliminate this "hope", but all they do is reinforce it. And then there are those that acknowledge it, recognise it, and deal with it.

 

[MRC & Co]

LOL, "Give yourself to the dark side"

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Man, that brings back some memories of good times! I am all dark side now and moving deeper and deeper into the realm! :vader:

Agreed Chops.

 

[Cartman]

:

It's even more simple than that. The word expectatio, which is the basis of our words to do with expectancy, was a replacement for the word spes, meaning hope (de-spes = de-spair, literally, without hope) in the literature to do with probability.

And probability and decision theory was never ever meant to be quantifiable in an open ended 'game' like the markets are.

This dogmatic view that you can apply an expectation onto the future, is absolute pure nonsense. It is the most absurd of all hopes, and the markets in the last 12 months, and Nizar's blog should do more than enough to disprove this sort of nonsense.

There are those that do everything they conceivably do to eliminate this "hope", but all they do is reinforce it. And then there are those that acknowledge it, recognise it, and deal with it.

you are velly wise man oh great Chopsui san --- we are humble in your plesence --- preese tell us more :bowdown:

 

[MichaelD]

This dogmatic view that you can apply an expectation onto the future, is absolute pure nonsense. It is the most absurd of all hopes, and the markets in the last 12 months, and Nizar's blog should do more than enough to disprove this sort of nonsense.

What extraordinarily myopic comments! For starters, as far as long term trend following goes in shares, to narrow down to such a short time frame as the last 12 months is egregiously wrong.

 

[tech/a]

This dogmatic view that you can apply an expectation onto the future, is absolute pure nonsense.

What utter rubbish. Glad I dont work for you. My staff (who take a vital role in forward planning) would sack you on the spot. You would be seen as an employee who doesnt have the "culture" expected in our company. You certainly wouldnt earn a leadership role.

Said it before.
Its a business.

I have 3
A Civil Construction Business which is not run on hope but on a business plan of continued expansion. From our plan we expect expansion and increased profit.
Even in this so called period of hardship.We are currently up 10% on last year (Turnover) and 35% on profit according to figures for the last 6 mths.

Property.
Expectation and forward planning expect and are achieving growth--even now!

Trading
Expectation and forward planning expect and are achieving growth---even now.

 

[MRC & Co]

What extraordinarily myopic comments! For starters, as far as long term trend following goes in shares, to narrow down to such a short time frame as the last 12 months is egregiously wrong.

There have been some periods in the past where the market has gone sideways for several years, I would call that a decent timeframe to be without any growing equity.

Why not adapt your system to suit current conditions? Honest question. Or will you wait in the hope that it begins to work once more in the not so distant future? How do you know you won't be waiting for another decade+? I remember the parameters of your system and thought it was very good, extremelly well thought out, but if it's not working, isn't it time to adapt, who knows what forward conditions will be and for how long, always have to try and exploit an edge in the current markets I reckon, Tech himself went to shorter-term trading and realised the value of shorting etc...........

Tech, I think Chops point is, you can plan as much as you want, but in the end, you cannot be SURE your current profits/expectancy will continue into the future, regardless of what has been prooven upto that point, there is always an element of hope. Sure you adapt, but that is bringing about a whole new expectancy, for which, at this current moment, you have no idea about.

 

[tech/a]

isn't it time to adapt,

I agree with you on this point.
Adaptation is an intrugal part of continued growth.

One of my favorite quotes and one I have in the past found myself in is--

"Humans really are stupid creatures
They do the same thing day in and day out
and EXPECT a DIFFERENT result"

you can plan as much as you want, but in the end, you cannot be SURE your current profits/expectancy will continue into the future,

I'll agree to the point that you cant be sure or certain but hope alone is no way to look at anything.
If you have a well laid out plan hope isnt or shouldnt be a part of it.

 

[motorway]

What extraordinarily myopic comments! For starters, as far as long term trend following goes in shares, to narrow down to such a short time frame as the last 12 months is egregiously wrong.

This last year is the same size
as the the previous 7

12mths ? how does time trend
long term or short

what trends is not time
but events

events can can have profound effects
through memory effects

Even if awareness of events can not be consciously remembered

eg Tree rings
climate
stock markets

long forgotten events ( causes ),
processes have memory of.

time does not trend .
If you were never born ( event )
what use of time ?

2008 in events = the prior 7 years ( lot's of births )
They are the same size

There is symmetry there. In the coastline of prices.
The way way down has been the same as the way up.
We profit from that coastline
not time...

motorway

 

[MRC & Co]

I'll agree to the point that you cant be sure or certain but hope alone is no way to look at anything.
If you have a well laid out plan hope isnt or shouldnt be a part of it.

Which means you are looking forward with a faith and trust, which all comes back to hope.