Triggering stop runs

[Cartman]

The lower the time frame, the better the entry for these type of moves.

absolutely!

the DD becomes greater on the larger time frame,

agree Chop san ---

only prob ive found is if you get on the wrong side of one of these trades (usually by being too aggressive/ not patient enuff) you can get crucified quickly --- so i use a specific staking strategy (-- not doubling up!! im slightly crazy but i aint mad ) so i have room to maneuver if it goes a bit pear shaped --- position sizing relative to capital base is just as/more important than the entry

Whilst the 1 minute chart or perhaps even 5 minute chart, can give a basic depiction of where price is moving and patterns which are developing, also use the 1/5 minute chart to draw on important levels to be careful and take notice of next time price flows towards these.

another good point

Scalping portions of this flow is a way to minimise risk. One can also try and ride out the trends longer if they want, of course, knowing the difference of when to scalp and when to ride out larger flows, is the key but a very hard art to master.

i hope people are listening to you Mirc -- everything u say is spot on --- thats y i listen to ya

I think that its worth considering VSA as a tool to help assess the likelihood of getting a fade vs a continuation - it can be a useful indicator of strength for a spike imo.

agree re the vol. etc cf --
but as Mirc said getting real volume on FX is a bit of an unknown --- i like to use the (fake) volume i get dished out as a (relativity) indicator --
there are patterns in the vol just like there are in the price --- if the patterns marry up then the baby patterns usually look like brothers and sisters ---- all ya gotta do is pick the right family

 

[Cartman]

(1)Where is it in the chart--following strength or weakness.
(2)How does it react to a test.
(3)What do the next few bars tell you

Techno, strength or weakness is often hard to define in FX --- smaller breakout traders who trade full size lots in fx will most likely get crucified in my humble view cause the deep pockets traders will just push them over their stops every time (thats why this thread is so interesting to me)

i like to try and think outside the square --- ie how would i be trading this if i had deep pockets etc. etc.

i did some very interesting testing a fair while back (when i was getting caught all the time by reversals) where i took trades the exact opposite of what i thought they should be --- short instead of long vica verca -- it was interesting how many times the trade turned positive from what seemed a ridiculous position ---- (time to rethink i thought cause regular T/A wasnt working on this instrument!!) --

ps wouldnt recommend that with real money by the way

This spike is in a timeframe higher than the entry timeframe so perhaps the timeframe is too low to give a reliable indication.
Perhaps a 15 min spike entered from a 2 min chart may give more information.
Just thoughts.

i know what yr on about-- i think this particular strain of s/t trading will struggle with that -- BUT--

i actually consider myself a pretty crap scalper but i figure if i can gain an edge with a scalping based plan and slot that into my normal short term possies then i might just find a niche sytem for my troppo trading style --

as i said above im more interested in staking plans and compounding --- its just that getting the entry right make all the other stuff work better ---

and it lowers the stress level lol

 

[MRC & Co]

Its easy sometimes when observing only the 1 min and tic charts to miss some of the more glaringly obvious broader structures that may influence the overall price action, so while using the shorter charts as the primary tool its still worth having an occasional glance at the broader picture.

ha ha yep! This is what I meant about putting important levels on your 1 or 5 minute charts if observing 1 second, tick or DOM charts. Draw in your trendlines, horizontal resistance and supports from multiple timeframes.

I personally, get caught with this ALL the time. So busy watching the DOM and concentrating on learning the 'feel of the flow' that I will place a short in 2 ticks above a monthly support or even a confluence of support! lol!

All one big learning curve ey!

As Tech always states, you can know everything in the book in this game, but if you don't know how to apply it, you ain't good for nothing except writing a book!

 

[tech/a]

I think you are on the wrong track, and missing the point.

I'm not sure anyone trading like this would give two hoots about VSA, nor want to extend time frames.

No It was a suggestion in its own space.
Not a suggestion which would be used in conjunction with Cartmans method.
If he is happy with what he is doing --- fine.

Timeframe for me is far to short.
For others like TH and Mirc too long!.

 

[Cartman]

good example of a spike trade earlier-- got lucky and nailed the entry right at the peak
(470987 2008.12.29 15:05 sell eurusd 1.4307 2008.12.29 15:09 1.4276)

logic behind the trade

-- EUR had been dropping off its highs for about an hour--
-- looked like a final shakeout just b4 the spike up ---
-- bottoms in any time frame are usually retested --
-- so when the spike up stalled for a second time -- short it

i min chart shows trend still down 1 sec chart shows the entry point clear as mud

 

[Cartman]

ps traded on demo last night trying some new shorting ideas on EUR/USD -- 10 cent micro trades

tip for new players:--
(always trial new systems on micro cause u dont get caught up with big numbers tainting yr perception --- its all about percentages ! )

-- handful of spike trades like the one above but mainly regular trades -- results were ok

27 trades -- 26 positive -- 1 negative -- gotta be happy with the new system so far --- equity curve attached

 

[Stormin_Norman]

nice work cartman.

 

[Cartman]

nice work cartman.

thank u Norm --- work in progress for me like everybody else but getting pretty happy where its heading

 

[Stormin_Norman]

what are u doing? trading the reversals?

 

[Cartman]

what are u doing? trading the reversals?

Norm, yeah reversals are good but the time of the current cycle is important --- ie a spike at the end of a cycle has a totally different 'meaning' to a spike at a mid point of a cycle ---- (talking FX here not stocks etc)

been studying the Eur/Usd for prob 6 months solid -- just looking for an edge ---- all i try and do is think like a 'big player' would and try different systems based on that --- think outside the normal square -- market is driven by money -- follow the money and try and work out what its doing --- (and just when u think uve got that sorted the deep pockets will crucify you LOL - )

Im a novice in my own eyes but i like to think on tangents --- this current system may crash and burn in a weeks time but when enough systems marry up and turn positive all ya gotta do is 'join the dots' ---

 

[Stormin_Norman]

sounds too complicated for me. i keep things as simple as possible.

a moving average + my fundamental thoughts for direction.

stochastic for timing.

 

[Cartman]

sounds too complicated for me. i keep things as simple as possible.

a moving average + my fundamental thoughts for direction.

stochastic for timing.

funnily enuff Norm your indicators are pretty much the same as mine --- once u add the 'human' factor in the 'indicators' become the 'result' rather than the indicator --- Mirc may like to add more weight to that statement ??