This is a great question and a real important part of a traders arsenal , i certainly have some ideas on this and in the main use price action and multiple time frames for this purpose . But i do have a couple ideas up my sleeve to do this effectively using ma's . im not going to just give it straight up but i will give a lead of what i do . i use different types of 2 mas of very close periods and i base them on 2 different things though , One is heavily wieghted to the close .... See where it leads for those interested enough to try ....
Trends: Beginnings, Ends and Identification
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This is a great question and a real important part of a traders arsenal , i certainly have some ideas on this and in the main use price action and multiple time frames for this purpose . But i do have a couple ideas up my sleeve to do this effectively using ma's . im not going to just give it straight up but i will give a lead of what i do . i use different types of 2 mas of very close periods and i base them on 2 different things though , One is heavily wieghted to the close .... See where it leads for those interested enough to try ....
Tanaka
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I managed to load some free EOD data into multi charts for FMG, a bad bar 14/08/09 but shouldn’t make a difference in my comparison.
I know we all hate hindsight trades, but just a demonstration of what the indicators I use looked like on tech’s FMG chart. I saw two examples of ‘jumping the creek’ in the period of tech’s chart.
FMG May to June 2009 had a lovely spike up, I probably would have missed this but I was given a pullback signal 08/07/09, had I open a position next day at open I would have gone long at $3.50, end of trend printed 23/07/09, closed position next day at open $4.55. 30% profit. 4% heat on trade.
01/09/10 to 24/09/10 to me was displaying a ‘jumping the creek’ move price action was batting around above the previous resistance level, but like tech/as trend lines, heavy resistance was around $5.50. So let’s say I put a buy stop in at $5.60, exit position at end of trend printed 16/12/10, close position at open next day for $6.75. 20.5% profit. No heat on trade. To me, the break of the batting movements above previous resistance showed that it was accumulation and therefore a buy signal.
I do use volume analysis with my trading, this example is just for the purpose of showing the life of a trend using just the Sine Wave Indicator.
Also note these examples are the bare basics of the methodology.
I know we all hate hindsight trades, but just a demonstration of what the indicators I use looked like on tech’s FMG chart. I saw two examples of ‘jumping the creek’ in the period of tech’s chart.
FMG May to June 2009 had a lovely spike up, I probably would have missed this but I was given a pullback signal 08/07/09, had I open a position next day at open I would have gone long at $3.50, end of trend printed 23/07/09, closed position next day at open $4.55. 30% profit. 4% heat on trade.
01/09/10 to 24/09/10 to me was displaying a ‘jumping the creek’ move price action was batting around above the previous resistance level, but like tech/as trend lines, heavy resistance was around $5.50. So let’s say I put a buy stop in at $5.60, exit position at end of trend printed 16/12/10, close position at open next day for $6.75. 20.5% profit. No heat on trade. To me, the break of the batting movements above previous resistance showed that it was accumulation and therefore a buy signal.
I do use volume analysis with my trading, this example is just for the purpose of showing the life of a trend using just the Sine Wave Indicator.
Also note these examples are the bare basics of the methodology.
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tech/a
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No and perhaps when I get to Position sizing it may become clear why.
Tanaka
Sorry but no --- wouldnt be to hard to mark up any chart though.
Its pretty simple rudimentary stuff Id have thought.
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tech/a
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If you have a look at TVN you'll see WHY it interested me!!
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I can understand TVN, average volume tripled from June to July, pull backs were on light volume, showing that it was accumulation in the pull backs, sellers don't appear to be interested yet.
My Sine Wave is useless with TVN as there hasn't been much recent price action history on the stock.
It would have come up in my breakout scan, but I'm not trading it at the moment.
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OMG! Tech, I just bought up TVN, +88% today so far! ...hate you :disgust:
tech/a
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Opened at 5.7c so not that impressive unless you were on it before today.
If not then this is one for the experienced boys---I will comment as appropriate with regard to how I would play the trade.
Currently aware of the possibility of traders cashing out as quickly as they came in.
Im expecting that the GAP will hold but could see a retracement to 50-70% of the gap before continuing.
Im not on the trade but will/could be if this sort of setup presents itself early enough.
Anyway will keep this thread on topic as much as possible.
If not then this is one for the experienced boys---I will comment as appropriate with regard to how I would play the trade.
Currently aware of the possibility of traders cashing out as quickly as they came in.
Im expecting that the GAP will hold but could see a retracement to 50-70% of the gap before continuing.
Im not on the trade but will/could be if this sort of setup presents itself early enough.
Anyway will keep this thread on topic as much as possible.
Tanaka
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Interesting volume for TVN yesterday, over 150M, more than double that what got the move going on the 24/06/11. Pulled back a lot from yesterday's high. Almost appears to be an exhaustion peak, time will tell.
tech/a
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As expected.
All part of trend analysis.
Today is telling a lot.
Its not being smashed so supply is scarce at this time.
I dont think this will pull back as far as expected into the initial gap.
I see the gap as being a strong support zone going forward.
Buying into or at the gap would be a low risk entry in my view.
Good one to watch in this discussion.---trend is still intact and maturing.
All part of trend analysis.
Today is telling a lot.
Its not being smashed so supply is scarce at this time.
I dont think this will pull back as far as expected into the initial gap.
I see the gap as being a strong support zone going forward.
Buying into or at the gap would be a low risk entry in my view.
Good one to watch in this discussion.---trend is still intact and maturing.
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tech/a
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Boggo my thoughts on your chart
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Tend to agree tech/a, certainly range bound over a longer time period.
In the short term though it is an appealing 3 leg pattern in isolation with a potential target that would make it worthwhile if it comes off.
Watching and waiting for a clue but it needs to stabilise above 6.40 to start with.
May be worth tracking as an exercise, there are about six or seven stocks with similiar patterns at the moment that are going sideways but with potential.
(click to expand)
In the short term though it is an appealing 3 leg pattern in isolation with a potential target that would make it worthwhile if it comes off.
Watching and waiting for a clue but it needs to stabilise above 6.40 to start with.
May be worth tracking as an exercise, there are about six or seven stocks with similiar patterns at the moment that are going sideways but with potential.
(click to expand)
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