Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the XJO with CFDs

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Joules MM1 said:
bitcoin cfd is on another bull tear ....nice, very good constructive trend
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btccfd usd 060819.png
 
Joules MM1 said:
the fear team asleep today ....that's nice !

xjo and honkers on the bid and so am i
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it's important (to me at least) to differentiate, give perspective-to and context-to, being with the bid and being long

with the bid is a momo idea but does not give context, with longs is trend-based and can consist of overnight positions, when trending the futures can attain most of the next days price length

this allows to differentiate between protective intra day ideas and trend ideas
 
Joules MM1 said:
was a good day to sit on a short with zero signals for a long, however the dees 2018 channel is not (yet) broken even with a throng of retail voices calling a top
$xjo

a protective sell after a new altime high (which itself doesnt mean squat) with a strong sell in the US would appear a normal set-up - not a bear market - and very few ever pick a top that hails a bear market - understanding the difference defines hanging in too long and selling (equities) too early

a little bone of contention about channels
the whole gist of two lines to draw a channel is to isolate where and when to exit, but it misses the construct of a trend, to get to that construct one must define how the construct is - well -constructed
and to do that we must first define that a channel is not point a to point b alone, it is from the confirmation point to the next confirmation point, therefor this channel is taken from the first significant pullback that becomes the confirmation that the upside has a reliable construct and the base of the channel has two further confirmations, price may and often does exceed the roof of the channel but it should not close below the channel floor in the space of 2 bars (yesterdays open and todays close)
if we were to take the channel from the first price then we do not have any consistancy or evidence that we are doing anything more than picking an ongoing random price above the entry point so there is no reliability and it negates any value in trying to "box" what price is doing

View attachment 96598
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and now we have a new one, symmetric, just like the old one only biiiiggerrrr, still smells like teen uptrend to me

xjo channel ii 100819.png
 
both retail and top clients are heavily short .....a squeez is the mostly likely result
the typical inside range to secure a low did not occur this morning, a bid on honkers and that'll support bids locally

xjo channel monday 120819 pre hsi open.png


arrow=BTO
 
both the cash index and cfd appear to close on a bully bias and structure, as is normal at a major low price will typically slop around as the money that moves markets gets set in, all the weak hands fall out and strong hands pile in, we havent retested the low, printed a symmetric channel, now there's no excuse from the bulls we lift or sprint for the exits (not withstanding the overnight bollox)
 
Hi Joules

sorry to break into your thread, wondering if you can advise which broker you use and platform to trade the XJO, i trade the ES using NT8 usually but the time zones is a challenge, so i'm looking for a broker with a good platform something that at least trades of a chart rather than an order window,

Kr Angelo
 
Sir Gordon Gecko said:
Hi Joules

sorry to break into your thread, wondering if you can advise which broker you use and platform to trade the XJO, i trade the ES using NT8 usually but the time zones is a challenge, so i'm looking for a broker with a good platform something that at least trades of a chart rather than an order window,

Kr Angelo
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cmc

depends on your sizing, you'll find the spread expensive, but, again, that depends on the size youre using and the context and/or target versus the risk youre prepared to deal

with the bid (and honkers)
 
been a while since holding longs over the weekend has support in the price structure

and in the back ground the nasdaq almost at new altime highs
honkers on a breakout upwards
----------------------------------------
Walter Murphy@waltergmurphy

New all-time high in NYSE daily cumulative a-d line. Even nicer.
 
$xjo cash rotation on 38.2% pullback today completes the move that corrects recent upleg, that creates it's risk long entry level
5887's cash 5885's front month cfd
btd
 
Joules MM1 said:
how it went post 38.2 and how the cfd closed - with the bid
View attachment 104939
View attachment 104940
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Anyone know how we may to try to find "long dated expiry options say around 2023/24" as currently listed/trading on the ASX please.. as wouldn't mind creating a watchlist for reference etc.

Appreciate it if anyone knows of a link they could please share that shows option codes/price etc. with future expiry date.

Thanks tela
 
Roller_1 said:
@Joules MM1 do you know if you can plot closed trades on the charts on CMC? Like you get with the arrows for open trades?
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R1
they havent lifted their game enough for that....i suspect they cannot achieve it without a sh!tload of code .....the best you can get is to dl the xl of stats and plot your own, certainly doable
the other challenge is (for mine) the trades are fractional, the advantage is say 10 bto then scale out of the single bid in 1 lots, for example, leaving half contract open, so you'd have bto x 10 (1 long x 10 whole contracts) scaling at 1 x 9 + 1 x .5 (.5 remains open bid)

so even if you dl the xl it is only useable if you have complete roundtrips, if you buy to open 10 then consecutively sell to close 9 x 1 plus .5 you'll have to code a truckload to match, very labour intensive, it belies that i cannot get a read on alpha that way, so i dont worry about it, it's not how i judge results, rather the fractional advantage over single single cost per rount trip offer me "better' flexibility over broker cost per single contract, the ratio of brokerage remains the same, what is flexible is the fractional, fractions are great for chop, as a % percentage risk is a constant but the applied realtime risk is lower
 
when the selling exhausts but no bids pile in, the question is how manufactured was the sell, what is the likely target liquidity group want to achieve, what is the auction trying to achieve, where is a rotation likely to occur, what is the busiest (vpoc) interaction level ?
xjo 127 rotation 250620.png
 
if it's a zonal trade, not a measured move trade, the zone is a range to target without restricting applied risk (not all contracts will size the same and have the same risk level)

xjo 127 rotation 250620 ii.png
 

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