Trading the Trend

[Chronos-Plutus]

For someone who thinks that they know everything, you really know very little. DYOR.

jog on
duc

Steady-on Son

I thought you have all the answers

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

For someone who thinks that they know everything, you really know very little. DYOR.

jog on
duc

Anyway; I will give the whole FED discussion a rest. Just don't try and pretend that the primary dealers aren't making money (a form a government welfare) from the FED asset purchases.

It is what it is, and it is a cluster fark of a sh1tshow. I guess if individuals and institutions can make money from it, so be it, but the music and show will have to end at some point; and when it does it won't be a happy ending for the vast majority of individuals and institutions.

 

[ducati916]

So all those trading the PMs. There was a jump in the PPI and interest rates did this:

Gold and silver sold off hard.

What loves rising interest rates?

The market and specifically banks. In 1951, interest rates were allowed after wartime control (a form of QE) to rise. The market rose right along with them, because, paradoxically, the low controlled rates prevented a rotation out of Bonds and into stocks.

If you follow the oil patch (from the news today) we can see that there are potentially going to be production issues down the road. Production issues could morph into supply issues, which create a price spike. Now we do not particularly want a price spike, but higher prices to +/- $70/barrel are probably manageable.

The caveat is however that interest rates need to keep ahead of PPI inflation. If we lose control of the PPI vis-a-vis interest rates (real as against nominal) then the market will have issues if you get another Volcker having to take remedial action. The only real possibility of PPI surging out of control resides in the oil patch and all the politics currently playing out there.

Rising rates = stronger US dollar = control of PPI as against POO.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

There's also the elephant in the room of the stimulus talks at a stalemate duc. Everyone are getting the jitters wondering how long it'll be before the logjam is broken.

The conspiracy theorist in me says the democrats have engaged in a gambit and are trying to torpedo the economy as a biden election strategy.

You'll like this - I sold my gold, zoom, and docusign off and rotated into a few etf's a few days ago. IBUY, PEZ, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLY, XLC.

 

[ducati916]

Market just moved through to all-time highs.

I thought there might be a bit more resistance than there actually was.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

FAS rebalanced:

I'm liking these holdings.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Market just moved through to all-time highs.

View attachment 107462 View attachment 107463 View attachment 107464

I thought there might be a bit more resistance than there actually was.

jog on
duc

same here I was expecting a week of so so going nowhere among a general up trend, so should we expect a sharp surprise soon? too smooth a ride in that rebalancing don't you think? or are we reaching more stable times..unlikely..

 

[over9k]

Jeez frog, I don't know what you've been holding, but my last month has been anything but smooth.

 

[ducati916]

Election:

Biden seems to be the pollster's favourite to win. The Duc'ster thinks Trump will shave it.

jog on
duc

 

[martyjames]

yes, the pollsters were way out last time, and even more amazing the bookies

 

[Dark1975]

I personally thought trump would win in a close election , and hopefully see the market generally tick upwards through till the end of the year,
In which at this period I am holding 75% of my share portfolio in ANZ, WBC, BOQ and other bank shares in which I see bank shares with the most risk to reward with 35% - 50% undervalued from previous highs, but more importantly higher dividend yields with 9 - 11% yield which I'm happy with in a longer term of investment ,
Tho with jo biden pulling a hail merry with his VP pick kamala Harris is a smart and quiet maybe winning campaign, As he has stated his campaigning now as a transitional president making way from Vice president kamala Harris as either a second vote as a the next future president as either next 4years or let's face it , at 78years old will he make it till full term , which gives the VP Presidency by default,
So really dear old joe made a smart move with really using his new VP as a possible future votr and secondly take advantage of the #black live matter movement votes!
I hope I'm wrong, otherwise if Biden goes in I see a little hurdle in the market in november .

 

[ducati916]

So here are the futures currently:

What is with gold/silver? Commodities are definitely picking up currently.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Looooool

 

[over9k]

Also duc, reference nvidia and their new products I was talking about:

This went live yesterday: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforc...kybGt6NWZjYkU0U1dlSWhoNSJ9#cid=_em-news_en-us

And the stock rallied just over 5%. All the rumour mills worth listening to were predicting a september launch and it looks like they nailed it.

 

[ducati916]

Just entered this position:

Now if there truely is PPI inflation, the long end of the curve will move, unless the Fed. uses a 1940's style approach. So essentially this is a partial hedge. If there was a true inflation (which will come primarily from POO if it comes) will hedge the remainder of the portfolio as I hold ERX as part of my portfolio anyway.

The advantage is that there is little downside at these current prices.

The advantage over Gold/Silver is that if there is an inflation of PPI and rates move (which they will) both Gold/Silver will be crushed, the other day was an excellent example of just that risk.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1. I personally thought trump would win in a close election , and hopefully see the market generally tick upwards through till the end of the year,

2. In which at this period I am holding 75% of my share portfolio in ANZ, WBC, BOQ and other bank shares in which I see bank shares with the most risk to reward with 35% - 50% undervalued from previous highs, but more importantly higher dividend yields with 9 - 11% yield which I'm happy with in a longer term of investment ,

3. Tho with jo biden pulling a hail merry with his VP pick kamala Harris is a smart and quiet maybe winning campaign, As he has stated his campaigning now as a transitional president making way from Vice president kamala Harris as either a second vote as a the next future president as either next 4years or let's face it , at 78years old will he make it till full term , which gives the VP Presidency by default,

4. So really dear old joe made a smart move with really using his new VP as a possible future votr and secondly take advantage of the #black live matter movement votes!
I hope I'm wrong, otherwise if Biden goes in I see a little hurdle in the market in november .

1. Although all of the polls suggest otherwise, I think Trump will just shave it. I have no basis for that, just a hunch and in part that Biden is such a non-entity.

2. I also like the banks/financial sector for a big sustained move.

3. I had never heard of her until she announced. The trouble with the VP position is that unless Biden were to die in office, the VP is political suicide. It is largely a toothless position. Far less power than remaining in the Senate.

4. Agreed. All VP nominations are essentially to grab votes from a demographic that you are weak in. Funnily enough financials do far better under a Democrat than Republicans. If Biden is going to take it, we'll see and end of August swoon in the market.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Waiting on a pullback. Missed this at the lows.

Annoying.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Technology as capital investment of GDP:

Productivity (profitability) can grow in the face of high unemployment, which is why when the unemployment figures come out, good or bad, the market is not overly concerned. Employment in the US is service based. These are lower paying jobs and have little to zero effect on S&P500 earnings.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

A salutary tale from flippe-floppe-flye:

Be careful, especially in the leveraged space, the ETFs and more often ETNs that you trade/hold.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

This was yesterday's 50EMA:

Which evidences the run through the resistance level and yesterday's bullishness. Today's (after market close) will bring us back down to the resistance levels and a likely sell-off into the w/e. Friday's as we know, tend to be close the trade for the w/e and avoid any bad news that could eventuate over the w/e.

jog on
duc