Trading the Trend

[ducati916]

Well the issuers of the MBS are supposed to back the financial product!

The FED are merely just the investor! Buying the asset on behalf of the American people!

The Fed. effectively nationalised the two GSEs. As I remember, over time, they turned a profit as RE values rose. However the point is that the Fed. (unlike private enterprise) can hold so called 'toxic' investments and absorb the loss (yes the taxpayer). Is it right? No. But (for the moment) that is the reality.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The Fed. effectively nationalised the two GSEs. As I remember, over time, they turned a profit as RE values rose. However the point is that the Fed. (unlike private enterprise) can hold so called 'toxic' investments and absorb the loss (yes the taxpayer). Is it right? No. But (for the moment) that is the reality.

jog on
duc

So the FED are bankrupting the entire American nation for the sake of a fraction of the people! End of story!

A criminal offense, close to the words of treason.

 

[ducati916]

There is no free lunch Mr Duc.

The bill always falls due, as I have said from the start of our discussion.

If I worked in congress, intel, treasury; I would be asking the FED; where is the return for the MBS asset purchases?

Don't tell me the FED are buying toxic rubbish on behalf of the American people; Jay might end up in jail for treason!

An act of betraying the nation; a very fine line Jay is walking now.

Well I never stated that the Fed. was buying/investing for US public. That was you.

What the Fed. is currently engaged in is illegal (outside of the 1913 Act), but it is not 'treason'. Will he ever be prosecuted? I very much doubt that.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Well I never stated that the Fed. was buying/investing for US public. That was you.

View attachment 107282

What the Fed. is currently engaged in is illegal (outside of the 1913 Act), but it is not 'treason'. Will he ever be prosecuted? I very much doubt that.

jog on
duc

The FED invest for listed banks, that is it.

I suppose that the USA are lucky at the moment that these listed banks don't have a private army; if it gets to it.

The FED is outside its mandate; and must be brought into line to protect the longevity of the USA.

That is my opinion. I will say no more on this topic, as I am not an American citizen and I am not directly employed by the American government.

 

[ducati916]

So the FED are bankrupting the entire American nation for the sake of a fraction of the people! End of story!

A criminal offense, close to the words of treason.

The problem with wide sweeping generalised statements is that almost invariably they are either wrong or so lacking in the specifics as to be virtually worthless.

Is the Fed. 'bankrupting' (making insolvent) the US? Where are your arguments and evidence to support the allegation?

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

"Chronos-Plutus,

1. The FED invest for listed banks, that is it.

2.I suppose that the USA are lucky at the moment that these listed banks don't have a private army; if it gets to it.

3. The FED is outside its mandate; 3(a) and must be brought into line to protect the longevity of the USA.

4. That is my opinion. I will say no more on this topic, as I am not an American citizen and I am not directly employed by the American government.

1. Incorrect.

2. I have no idea what you are talking about.

3. True. 3(a) More likely that the mandate will be amended.

4. Fine.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The problem with wide sweeping generalised statements is that almost invariably they are either wrong or so lacking in the specifics as to be virtually worthless.

Is the Fed. 'bankrupting' (making insolvent) the US? Where are your arguments and evidence to support the allegation?

jog on
duc

My comments about the FED are not merely allegations, they are fact. The FED provide the evidence.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

"Chronos-Plutus,

1. The FED invest for listed banks, that is it.

2.I suppose that the USA are lucky at the moment that these listed banks don't have a private army; if it gets to it.

3. The FED is outside its mandate; 3(a) and must be brought into line to protect the longevity of the USA.

4. That is my opinion. I will say no more on this topic, as I am not an American citizen and I am not directly employed by the American government.

1. Incorrect.

2. I have no idea what you are talking about.

3. True. 3(a) More likely that the mandate will be amended.

4. Fine.

jog on
duc

1. The FED are known clients of JP Morgan and Goldman.

2. If you don't know now, well you will never know.

3. The FED is a cooked goose.

4. Agreed.

 

[ducati916]

My comments about the FED are not merely allegations, they are fact. The FED provide the evidence.

You will have to excuse my scepticism. You cannot even state accurately what the Fed. actually does. I have absolutely no confidence in accepting your assertion of the facts.

Please don't post some half-wit on a youtube video as evidence.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1. The FED are known clients of JP Morgan and Goldman.

2. If you don't know now, well you will never know.

3. The FED is a cooked goose.

4. Agreed.

1. Known by whom and evidenced how?

2. Well clearly I don't know and it would seem that you have no explanation.

3. So you say, but always without any argument or evidence.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

You will have to excuse my scepticism. You cannot even state accurately what the Fed. actually does. I have absolutely no confidence in accepting your assertion of the facts.

Please don't post some half-wit on a youtube video as evidence.

jog on
duc

Well despite their (FED) advertising website; they buy toxic assets for investment and commercial banks; essentially bankrupting the American people.

Their (FED) balance sheet is evidence, as I have posted!

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

1. Known by whom and evidenced how?

2. Well clearly I don't know and it would seem that you have no explanation.

3. So you say, but always without any argument or evidence.

jog on
duc

1. I think you know that answer. Ask your mate Mr Fly; which bank buys assets on behalf of the FED?

2. The FED don't have a military to control the printing presses. The USA government do.

3. The FED are cooked, unless little Jay awakes from his induced coma of servitude to the listed banks and actually starts working for the government of the USA.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Either way it is not our problem; we are not employed by the government of the USA and we are just investors and traders.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Tesla market share crushed in Germany: "Tesla’s share of the EV market plunged to 8.7% year-to-date, from 18.4% last year. Competition is now huge and across the spectrum. Tesla faces the same situation globally."

(https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/tesla-crushed-germany-evs-vw-renault-hyundai-group)

 

[ducati916]

I don't see this on any of the newswires, maybe flippe-floppe-flye has the world exclusive:

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1. I think you know that answer. Ask your mate Mr Fly; which bank buys assets on behalf of the FED?

2. The FED don't have a military to control the printing presses. The USA government do.

3. The FED are cooked, unless little Jay awakes from his induced coma of servitude to the listed banks and actually starts working for the government of the USA.

The problem with sweeping generalisations, as already stated, is that they are generally inaccurate, misleading or simply incorrect.

So the Federal Reserve:

These are the member Banks.

What they are (supposed) to do:

How they execute FOMC:

What it constitutes:

Through the Primary Dealers:

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Either way it is not our problem; we are not employed by the government of the USA and we are just investors and traders.

If you are actively investing or trading, then it is very much 'your' (our) problem. If you do not understand accurately, or choose to ignore what and how the Fed. is organised and its purpose, you will fundamentally misunderstand how the world's financial markets operate.

There is an old adage: 'Don't fight the Fed.'. Never was a truer word spoken. You may not like it. You may oppose it on ethical, legal and economic grounds, but don't make the mistake of betting against it.

2008/2009 was a far worse test of the Fed's. power than COVID. COVID is a nothing by comparison. The Fed. managed, from behind the 8-ball, to step in and literally save the world's financial system within 5 hrs over collapse: nothing was clearing through the banking system. I traded this (or rather watched) as trades were unable to clear for about 4hrs, while the system was literally collapsing before you.

My advice: long path, study the Fed. Short path: trade in the same direction as the Fed.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The rebalance continues:

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil patch news:


- U.S. LNG exports averaged 8 bcf/d in January 2020. By July, exports fell to 3.1 bcf/d.

- The last time U.S. gas exports were as low as July levels was in May 2018, back when export capacity was about one-third of current capacity.

- The week of July 12-18 was particularly low – averaging just 2 bcf/d.

Market Movers

- Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) saw its profits fall 73 percent to $6.57 billion in the second quarter. Aramco maintained its dividend.

- Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) said it sees LNG cancellations ending by the winter.

- A federal judge ordered the Army Corps of Engineers to detail options by the end of August for resolving the permitting issue with the Dakota Access pipeline.

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Oil prices strengthened again on hopes of a slowdown in coronavirus transmission in the United States. “The fact that the COVID cases seem to be tapering off in the U.S. is making people a little more optimistic about getting it under control and demand recovering toward the end of the year,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Also, Russia said it was moving forward with a coronavirus vaccine despite the lack of rigorous trials. The health impact is unclear, but any positive vaccine news has tended to spark a bullish reaction from the market.

Rig count slides again. Even as the oil market has stabilized, the U.S. oil industry has not returned to drilling. Even the Permian basin continues to lose rigs. “North American E&Ps are in a battle for investment relevance, not a battle for global market share,” Matt Gallagher, CEO of Parsley Energy Inc. (NYSE: PE), told analysts during a conference call. “Allocating growth capital into a global market with artificially constrained supply is a trap our industry has fallen into time and time again.”

U.S. oilfield services lose more than 9,000 jobs in July. The U.S. oilfield-services sector cut 9,344 jobs in July, a sharp increase in job losses from a month earlier. In total, nearly 100,000 jobs have been lost since the start of the pandemic. The expiration of federal support could lead to more job cuts.

Permits for horizontal drilling hit a 10-year low. Not only is the rig count at historic lows, but so are new drilling permits. “Drilling permits, which are increasingly reliable indicators of future activity levels, dipped to a 10-year monthly low this July, with only 454 awards,” Rystad Energy wrote in a report. The firm said that unless WTI prices quickly move to $50 per barrel within the next few weeks, it is unlikely that the rig count will increase significantly before 2021.

Canadian oil sands producers lose $C$2.4 billion in the second quarter. Combined, top oil producers in Canada’s oil sands lost C$2.4 billion ($1.8 billion) in the second quarter, following a first quarter loss of C$8.8 billion. Capital is also becoming a concern. Recently, HSBC, Norges Bank, and Deutsche Bank said they would no longer finance Canada’s oil sands.

Trump admin to gut methane regulations. The EPA is expected to announce a rollback of standards on methane emissions from oil and gas operations. The move was long expected. However, this regulation could be quickly repealed if the Democrats take control of the Senate and Joe Biden wins the White House.

Occidental loses $8 billion. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) lost $8 billion in the second quarter, including a $6.6 billion write-down. Oxy also said that its oil and gas production would fall by 13 percent this quarter and by another 5 percent in the fourth quarter. Notably, Oxy said that its Permian production would fall by 37 percent this year. “We remain concerned about the company's high debt load and ability to generate cash flow in a prolonged low oil price environment,” Jennifer Rowland, an analyst with Edward Jones, wrote in a note.

9 companies file for bankruptcy in July. A new report from Haynes and Boone finds that 9 North American oil and gas companies filed for bankruptcy in July, a 66 percent increase from the same period a year earlier. In the first seven months of the year, 32 companies sought bankruptcy protection.

Nord Stream 2 at risk of non-completion. U.S. sanctions are increasing the odds that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline does not reach completion, according to Uniper (OTC: UNPPY), one of the project’s partners. If the pipeline cannot be completed, Uniper says it “may have to impair the loan provided to Nord Stream 2 and forfeit the planned interest income.”

SEB: $60-$80 oil possible, depends on shale. The lack of drilling activity could push oil prices up to $60 per barrel at some point next year, but that depends on shale restraint, according to SEB. Any surge in drilling will keep prices depressed. “The US shale oil sector and its investors need to start behaving more like OPEC+ and constrain investments and supply to some extent if they want to walk away with profits,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

Iran oil exports higher than data suggests. Iran is exporting as much as 600,000 barrels daily, using ship-to-ship transfers with transponders turned off to avoid detection, skirting U.S. sanctions. The daily average number compares with an estimate of 227,000 bpd made in a U.S. Congressional report.

U.S. producers take oil back from SPR. U.S. oil companies have started pulling their crude oil back from government storage tanks, suggesting that the glut that forced them to stash it there in the first place is now easing.

Oil majors’ cuts reach 1 mb/d. The five largest oil majors have written down a combined $50 billion in assets and slashed production by 1 mb/d. Only ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) did not write down any assets, although the company said in a filing that it may revise down its reserves at the end of the year.

We invite you to read several of the most recent articles we have published which may be of interest to you:


jog on
duc