Trading the Trend

[Knobby22]

Personally I think once the u.s announces the 2nd stimulas, we are going to see a strong movement up till the u.s elections mid September ,

I am bearish. The unemployment insurance runs out next week for millions and they will have nothing. The Republicans want to do something but so far Trump is against it.

The country will be in Depression.
I think it will get really bad and then a month or two before the election Trump will drop a heap of helicopter money. This won't save the stock market unless the government directly buy shares which is likely I suppose.

 

[Dark1975]

I am bearish. The unemployment insurance runs out next week for millions and they will have nothing. The Republicans want to do something but so far Trump is against it.

The country will be in Depression.
I think it will get really bad and then a month or two before the election Trump will drop a heap of helicopter money. This won't save the stock market unless the government directly buy shares which is likely I suppose.

Yes i agree if the stimulas package isn't approve we will see the market tank, but i have been following the progression of talks closely, Senator mc connell will get his way, trump backdowned on payroll tax on Cares, Also watching trump doing backflips on wearing a mask now and stoping on going his political rallies, looks like he has seen the polls with biden leading and will do anything to play ball.
with regards to Fed, you have seen them picking up the Tab, You cant beat the Fed, they are just printing more money as they need ( looks like hyperinflation germany 1929) but's that a whole different topic

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

So this is your reason...EVs?
Why is gold moving?

jog on
duc

My investment case for silver isn't purely based on EVs in China and the EU.

Gold and silver have had structural supply problems all year with COVID shutting down mines, refineries and nations; combined with the strong investment demand for the precious metals.

Gold has been moving over the last few years largely due to the tsunami of negative yielding debt. Silver tends to lag gold. Also Central Banks around the world have been buying gold over the last few years.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

And you think you will make money in gold/silver if there is true inflation and yields jump? Think again. Gold holds its value...yes but what timeframe are you thinking. PMs can fluctuate with the best of them.

jog on
duc

I just heard the Fed are going to abandon their inflation mandate.

This recent interview with Eric Sprott may answer some of your questions on gold and silver:

 

[Dark1975]

Just something off the topic ? What's do most ppl here hold in silver stock asx listed ? SVL /S32 , PMY,
or a better question what would be the best of the asx listed stocks in silver ?

 

[ducati916]

I just heard the Fed are going to abandon their inflation mandate.

This recent interview with Eric Sprott may answer some of your questions on gold and silver:

The Fed. have had the 'catch-up' inflation mandate since Yellen. These guys are way behind the curve.

But ok, the reason is inflation (that these chaps are propounding). That answers my question.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Here is the problem with that scenario:

Gold followed Bonds. Silver did not. Silver may have time to catch-up. It may not. If there is true inflation, the type of inflation the Fed. worries about, Powell will raise rates and both PMs will be crushed.

If it is CPI inflation, well the Fed. will do nothing as they don't care about CPI inflation. But with CPI inflation only, the market will continue to rise as CPI improves earnings. Given the two, where would you put your money?

To date.

We know Powell (the Fed) will raise rates, albeit slowly:

Those rates rose to 2.3% on the 1yr (from about 0%) between 2016-2019. Look at what happened to gold/silver. Look at what happened to stocks.

So what we have is this type of choice:

(a) CPI inflation, Fed. only very slowly raises rates, Stocks outperform, PMs continue higher, but at a lesser rate than the market.

(b) PPI inflation jumps significantly: Fed raises rates. PMs crushed. Bonds crushed. Stocks ok up to a point +/-5%.

Now I'm perfectly ok with: its a trade and I exit whenever XYZ happens. These guys Sprott/Schiff, are promoting gold as if hyperinflation was the scenario.

This is not the case currently.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Here is the problem with that scenario:

View attachment 106484 View attachment 106485

Gold followed Bonds. Silver did not. Silver may have time to catch-up. It may not. If there is true inflation, the type of inflation the Fed. worries about, Powell will raise rates and both PMs will be crushed.

If it is CPI inflation, well the Fed. will do nothing as they don't care about CPI inflation. But with CPI inflation only, the market will continue to rise as CPI improves earnings. Given the two, where would you put your money?

View attachment 106487

To date.

We know Powell (the Fed) will raise rates, albeit slowly:

View attachment 106488

Those rates rose to 2.3% on the 1yr (from about 0%) between 2016-2019. Look at what happened to gold/silver. Look at what happened to stocks.

So what we have is this type of choice:

(a) CPI inflation, Fed. only very slowly raises rates, Stocks outperform, PMs continue higher, but at a lesser rate than the market.

(b) PPI inflation jumps significantly: Fed raises rates. PMs crushed. Bonds crushed. Stocks ok up to a point +/-5%.

Now I'm perfectly ok with: its a trade and I exit whenever XYZ happens. These guys Sprott/Schiff, are promoting gold as if hyperinflation was the scenario.

View attachment 106491 View attachment 106492

This is not the case currently.

jog on
duc

I don't think the Fed will be raising rates for the foreseeable future. It will cause mass scale default; thus inducing another global financial crisis. Every time the Fed has tried to raise rates in the last decade; the markets reacted negatively.

Jay Powell and the Fed are now backed into a corner.

I also think that the Fed will go Bank Of Japan style and buy stock on market.

 

[ducati916]

I don't think the Fed will be raising rates for the foreseeable future. It will cause mass scale default; thus inducing another global financial crisis. Every time the Fed has tried to raise rates in the last decade; the markets reacted negatively.

Jay Powell and the Fed are now backed into a corner.

I also think that the Fed will go Bank Of Japan style and buy stock on market.

Not for CPI based inflation. He (Powell) has already stated they will stay low for some time. If it is however PPI inflation, that is different.

The point is: in CPI inflation, stocks will match or outperform PMs. If rates rise, PMs will be crushed.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Not for CPI based inflation. He (Powell) has already stated they will stay low for some time. If it is however PPI inflation, that is different.

The point is: in CPI inflation, stocks will match or outperform PMs. If rates rise, PMs will be crushed.

jog on
duc

I reckon rates will stay at zero/negative for decades.

The Fed are abandoning their inflation mandate because they know that they won't be able to contain it.

Stagflation is coming whether we like it or not.

We are in the end game now Duc. We move to MMT, if it fails, there will be a global monetary reset.

 

[qldfrog]

Shorting 20y us bond via etf:
I found TBF and TMV(x3)
If anyone interested..
Might check these and buy next week

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Not for CPI based inflation. He (Powell) has already stated they will stay low for some time. If it is however PPI inflation, that is different.

The point is: in CPI inflation, stocks will match or outperform PMs. If rates rise, PMs will be crushed.

jog on
duc

So basically the reason why we will get an inflationary recession is due to high unemployment combined with massive fiscal stimulus/welfare. This keeps demand going but does not increase supply, as such it is inflationary.

You might be interested in watching this interview with Greg Jensen (Co-CIO of Bridgewater). He analyses monetary and fiscal policy over the decades with a focus on inflation, deflation and stagflation; and applies it to the current crisis that we are in.

 

[over9k]

Considering silver bulls have been banging on about it since during the gfc (I know because I was there hearing it every 5 minutes), this is one of those "broken clock" moments.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Considering silver bulls have been banging on about it since during the gfc (I know because I was there hearing it every 5 minutes), this is one of those "broken clock" moments.

Perhaps; however cost-push inflation and monetary inflation is coming. I have only been bullish on silver for the last few years. If you watch the interview with Greg Jensen above you will get a better understanding.

 

[ducati916]

1. I reckon rates will stay at zero/negative for decades.

2. The Fed are abandoning their inflation mandate because they know that they won't be able to contain it.

3. Stagflation is coming whether we like it or not.

4. We are in the end game now Duc. We move to MMT, if it fails, there will be a global monetary reset.

1. If there is PPI inflation of any significance, rates will rise immediately.

2. They are abandoning it to INCREASE it. Simply because inflation is almost negative.

3. Dream on.

4. Not even close.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1. So basically the reason why we will get an inflationary recession is due to high unemployment combined with massive fiscal stimulus/welfare. This keeps demand going but does not increase supply, as such it is inflationary.

2. You might be interested in watching this interview with Greg Jensen (Co-CIO of Bridgewater). He analyses monetary and fiscal policy over the decades with a focus on inflation, deflation and stagflation; and applies it to the current crisis that we are in.

1. Incorrect. Already covered.
2. I'll watch it.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Perhaps; however cost-push inflation and monetary inflation is coming. I have only been bullish on silver for the last few years. If you watch the interview with Greg Jensen above you will get a better understanding.

Cost push inflation and the Phillips curve cannot operate in (a) non-unionised environment or (b) high unemployment.

If he states otherwise (video) I might be wasting my time watching it.

jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Cost push inflation and the Phillips curve cannot operate in (a) non-unionised environment or (b) high unemployment.

If he states otherwise (video) I might be wasting my time watching it.

jog on
duc

Well if you think you know more than him, or if you aren't interested in hearing other people's opinions; don't watch it.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

1. If there is PPI inflation of any significance, rates will rise immediately.

2. They are abandoning it to INCREASE it. Simply because inflation is almost negative.

3. Dream on.

4. Not even close.

jog on
duc

You trade on what you believe will happen and I will trade on what I believe will happen.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

1. Incorrect. Already covered.
2. I'll watch it.

jog on
duc

You asked the questions; I gave you the answers and found others who are informed that support my view/opinion.