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Trading the Trend

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I am not really into conspiracy theories. It is no secret that bullion banks and to a certain extent industry have wanted to suppress the price of precious metals.

It is scientific fact that silver is the ultimate industrial metal for electrification. You try to stop China building 100s of nuclear reactors to transition to the electrification of their transportation network. You try to tell the European Union to stop the transition to the electrification of their transportation network also.

In Australia, the roll out of electric vehicles will be much slower, however in China; it will be a rapid transition as they are building the power capacity to support electric vehicles AS WE SPEAK.
 


My point is that there are always reasons why (conspiracy theories) exist, to suppress or raise prices of 'X'. That is no explanation at all.



Blue is silver. Green/red gold. The spike to the left, was an actual conspiracy, re. the Hunt brothers. Now (on the right) silver has caught up (since this chart) but it is still a ways off.

Here is the current chart:



Improving, but still way off.

On a daily chart it looks very different:



There is no 'suppression' occurring. Simply that silver is not performing as expected viz. outperforming, given the smaller market. Silver is still a country mile from its previous all time high. Why?

jog on
duc
 


That is simply Arbs doing what they do. It simply closes the spread. That provides no explanation at all for why the price is rising.

jog on
duc
 

I agree with your views that silver is lagging, as it always does. Yes, the Hunt Brothers did try to corner the silver market and they failed; however the electrification of global transportation networks will corner the silver market for me. I can wait decades, I am in no rush; gives me plenty of time to read my philosophy, haha.
 
ducati916 said:
That is simply Arbs doing what they do. It simply closes the spread. That provides no explanation at all for why the price is rising.

jog on
duc
Click to expand...

The price of precious metals are rising because of the 10s of trillions of dollars of currency debasement and the tsunami of negative yielding debt that obviously can't be serviced without printing more trillions and trillions of dollars of currency.

Gold and silver are monetary metals, safe haven assets; why would you want to keep all your cash in the bank, to get negative returns and risk your cash if a bank fails; when you can allocate a portion of your wealth into millennia money like gold and silver; that will hold its value in perpetuity.
 
A potential explanation:
If both silver and gold are used as safe haven, physical, by people: you and i, not the funds or banks, then i suspect gold will be preferred.
I personally bought both but volume and preferences mean i am kind of 80 20 toward gold.
Now where is the new wealth nowadays?
Not in Europe or Americas.
Wealth in the west is owned by the older generation..which already bought their gold and silver, sitting in the safes, and will not get more.
But Asia/china new wealth are still building their own PM stocks and silver is not a Chinese desired PM, wrong colour nor is it with Indians?
For India, i might be wrong...
So could it be just a cultural difference shift in the retail market?
Both jewellery and coins/ bullions?
I tried...
 

I wouldn't underestimate China's thirst for silver as a monetary metal. Isn't that why the Opium Wars occurred?

Also China will need astronomical amounts of silver to electrify their vehicles and make solar panels over the coming years/decades.

The Indians also love silver; just about every Indian that I speak to has silver.

I posted a few weeks ago; the investment demand of silver has been increasing significantly over the last year; looking at the Silver Institute Reports.

At the end of day; we are here to make money; I don't really care about the emotions that are attached to the metals.
 
Between Mr Le Duc input and others, i i ha the feeling it is time to get out of bonds.i am slowly moving out from us bonds..via ETF s.. to other stock market entries
So pushing the trend
But still a bit worried getting out of Aussie bonds.
 

Which simply returns to the original question: if it simply 'inflation' why is silver not playing?

jog on
duc
 
qldfrog said:
Between Mr Le Duc input and others, i i ha the feeling it is time to get out of bonds.i am slowly moving out from us bonds..via ETF s.. to other stock market entries
So pushing the trend
But still a bit worried getting out of Aussie bonds.
Click to expand...

I'm seriously thinking about going short TLT.

jog on
duc
 

And you think you will make money in gold/silver if there is true inflation and yields jump? Think again. Gold holds its value...yes but what timeframe are you thinking. PMs can fluctuate with the best of them.

jog on
duc
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
Also China will need astronomical amounts of silver to electrify their vehicles and make solar panels over the coming years/decades.
Click to expand...
This reminds me of the Hunt Brothers. They tried to corner the market for silver. Many had the expectation that the people of China would become middle class and want to take pictures of each other with Kodak cameras using kodachrome silver impregnated film.

Alas digital technology, cameras, iphones came along.

Perhaps someone will have a brainfart and invent something to supercede EVs and solar energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

gg
 
ducati916 said:
Which simply returns to the original question: if it simply 'inflation' why is silver not playing?

jog on
duc
Click to expand...

Silver is playing; surely you can see the rise in the charts. The managed money moving in from the CTFC charts, and the increase in investment in the Silver Institute reports for supply and demand.
 


It more reminds me of Warren Buffett He bought silver due to the forecast industrial demand. As I said, I don't need to attempt to corner the market when the advancement in technology, particularly the electrification of transportation, and the solar energy transition will do it for me. Then there is the Central Banks printing trillions and buying gold, which also helps silver.
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
Silver is playing; surely you can see the rise in the charts. The managed money moving in from the CTFC charts, and the increase in investment in the Silver Institute reports for supply and demand.
Click to expand...


Yes I'm sure everyone can see that it is moving.

The issue is: it is not moving consistently with an explanation rooted in inflation. If it massively accelerates, then it will be consistent with its historical relationship with inflation. Currently it is not.

Therefore, putting aside inflation for a moment (which was totally wrong in 2009-2020), why is it moving?

jog on
duc
 

So this is your reason...EVs?
Why is gold moving?

jog on
duc
 
This related post from duc, is a good post and with all the other posts on this related topic to trend looks positive,
I have been personally in and out of the market lately chopping the volitality , tho this week for me personally I will be moving 80% of my cash reserves in to long term position on banks, typically anz and wbc and boc , typically 40% down down from pre covid,
My reasoning y, I think banks have been punished hard, yet the Australian banks are the pillars of our market with strong dividends and alot of room to.move forward,
I'm thinking I will gauge this week and get in just before the 2nd stimulas announced by the u.s,

Personally I think once the u.s announces the 2nd stimulas, we are going to see a strong movement up till the u.s elections mid September ,
The Only volitality I see is the cold war with china and november if Biden gets in, otherwise I see a strong move upwards
 
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