Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[acouch]

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac

 

[Freddo]

Today will be very interesting.

Sycom close was 5420 so thats 144 points down from Fridays close.
I believe 144 is a significant number for those people in the Gann (whoops can I use that word in this thread ) If I find out why I'll post it in the Gann SPI thread

Anyway, I expect we will see a strong rally at the open from stops going off.
Hopefully I'll get 12-15 points of a scalp

Happing SPIing

Freddo

 

[Freddo]

No rally off the open to give a scalp trade like I thought it might.....
it's come down too far for me to short it so I'll wait until tomorrow for a trade
opportunity.

 

[Trembling Hand]

No rally off the open to give a scalp trade like I thought it might.....
it's come down too far for me to short it so I'll wait until tomorrow for a trade
opportunity.

Going home already Freddo?

Should be a large range day today. With plenty more opportunities.

 

[Freddo]

Going home already Freddo?

Should be a large range day today. With plenty more opportunities.

Yep, taking my bat and ball...

Unfortunately I have appointments for the rest of the day.

I agree should be plenty of intraday ops but I won't be able to stick close enough to see them emerge then manage the trades.

I'm mainly EOD for the next couple of months, with the big range days we have been having it's killing me being on the sidelines.

 

[Freddo]

Doesn't look like I have missed much !

Can someone poke this thing with a stick and wake it up!

 

[Broadway]

Murphy's Law, soon as you left it tried to go south, found some volume (1.52pm), got rejected twice , found some more volume then took off.

Interesting 80% retracement to finish the day.

 

[julius]

not sure if i am the only donkey but i just discovered this in fib trader:

right click chart background
go to chart > open options
go to 'others' tab
tick the 'scroll bar' box

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[Freddo]

Stumbled across something very interesting.

Check out the attached chart.

Signal is buy when the high of the coloured bar with the red dot is broken.

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[Freddo]

Sycom close 5370, well down on the close of the day session yesterday.

Should be an interesting open today will be looking for an opportunity to trade
the gap attempting to close.

 

[nat]

Sycom close 5370, well down on the close of the day session yesterday.

Should be an interesting open today will be looking for an opportunity to trade
the gap attempting to close.

hi there freddo good to c you posting again,with that chart you put up is it saying an entry point im guessiing but for every entry it needs an exit or is that in there as well ?

Could very well be a gap trade today ,but who knows could just keep going down to.

What confirmation do you use to think be worth going for the gap trade?Just enter on strength long with stop and let it go ?Nathan

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sycom close 5370, well down on the close of the day session yesterday.

Should be an interesting open today will be looking for an opportunity to trade
the gap attempting to close.

Gap closed very smartly and now taking off to yesterdays highs wouldn't be surprised to see it reverse there around Japans open, 11:00.

 

[onemore]

G/Day Freddo,

Welcome back ,can you explain the chart entries in a bit more detail.

Cheers

 

[Freddo]

hi there freddo good to c you posting again,with that chart you put up is it saying an entry point im guessiing but for every entry it needs an exit or is that in there as well ?

Could very well be a gap trade today ,but who knows could just keep going down to.

What confirmation do you use to think be worth going for the gap trade?Just enter on strength long with stop and let it go ?Nathan

Hi Nathan,
Great to "talk" to you again.
The chart I posted is in it's infancy. I was simply experimenting with a home grown utility I call XRay cause I have a terrible imagination however it is supposed to show the "inside" of the market.

Xray is something I binned because it didn't give me many signals.
Last night I was just tinkering with it and I nearly fell off my chair when
I realised that it was generating some excellent signals.

I disregarded it previously because of I had forgotten an important point
in my design I was worried about getting hundreds or results so I had it just return the top result. By the time I got it working I forgot this important point so when it returned a signal that is strong but only happens twice a year
I left it.

Some changes I did last night meant I have a potential system based on 8 signals which offer around 8 trades per year each so 8 x 8 = 64 potential trades per year.

what I have to do now is fine tune the exit and calculate things like expectancy and the equity curve to see how that looks. Then run it on out of sample data.

Re Gap trades (got my wish this morning )

I usually give it around 12 points sometimes just 8 then enter that direction.
If it is in the direction of what I think is a larger trend and I have time I trail a stop similar to a swing trade. If it's a counter trend trade then usually I'll look for a quick scalp.

 

[Freddo]

G/Day Freddo,

Welcome back ,can you explain the chart entries in a bit more detail.

Cheers

Hello Onemore,

The chart I posted doesn't show entries, it shows bars which are signalling a potential long entry when the high of the signal bar is broken.

Thats as far as I have got it but it is showing great potential.
I still have to fully develop and test the entry and exit.

Xray (got to get a better name) which I mentioned in a previous post
gave me a list of short signals as well which I haven't charted yet.

I will post more details as I code and test things.

If it does work then it will once and for all prove my theory that charts should be thrown in the bin (for me at least anyway). I will also have a truckload of books and software to sell.

Cheers

Freddo

 

[julius]

freddo '07 was a unique market...i have daily systems that killed it for the whole year but fail dismissaly in other periods. worth a bit of caution imo

 

[Freddo]

freddo '07 was a unique market...i have daily systems that killed it for the whole year but fail dismissaly in other periods. worth a bit of caution imo

Totally agree Julius, my testing last night was for 2000 - current.

I always also test on an out of sample data range and I'll also look too remove the extraordinary profitable trades and look for the median but usually leave the most adverse trades in.

I test via system testing in charting software cause thats the quickest.
Then I test via a database and SQL queries
then finally I step through every trade manually.

I do this because charting software offers a quick way of testing however
there is still an element of black box to many charting software testers.
Anything that looks promising in this goes to the next level.

I use a database and a home grown application called take_a_trade
it means a bit of time coding the trading system but because I know exactly
how take_a_trade manages trades -eliminates all black box syndrome

If it makes through this level - I step each trade manually because I may have a bug in take_a_trade.

I once found a system that returned something like $30,000 a year trading
1 contract ... yee haa ! I tested using a system tester on different years bull and bear.... results were consistent .... woo hoo

Put it through take_a_trade results lousy! WTF
turns out I confused between Metastock and TS languages and put a minus sign where it shouldn't have been.

So my system wasn't looking back trying to work out tomorrow.

It looked FORWARD and took a trade today because it could look to "tomorrows" price's since with historical data
"tomorrow" has already happened

how funny is that !

 

[Freddo]

Gap closed very smartly and now taking off to yesterdays highs wouldn't be surprised to see it reverse there around Japans open, 11:00.

and what happened around 11:30?
Good call!