Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

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hey Prof - oh yeah Fri 13th! my bro is 40 today! I'd better call him quick....

Dow looks to be up against resistance around this zone - around 61% retrace of the drop off the high - & MACD is about to cross again on the 10 day signaling a down swing. might not amount to much but we're still within the realms of the start of wave 3 down, according to McHugh & EWI, so until that view is eliminated the potential is still there. I'm not currently short Dow tho, only ASX

I'll send you a couple of reports
 
Edwood said:
hey Prof - oh yeah Fri 13th! my bro is 40 today! I'd better call him quick....

Dow looks to be up against resistance around this zone - around 61% retrace of the drop off the high - & MACD is about to cross again on the 10 day signaling a down swing. might not amount to much but we're still within the realms of the start of wave 3 down, according to McHugh & EWI, so until that view is eliminated the potential is still there. I'm not currently short Dow tho, only ASX

I'll send you a couple of reports
Click to expand...

Sorry Ed, the way your last post was worded, it sounded like it was already heading south. Or maybe it was just the way I read it. Stupid professor:cautious:

Definetely think another leg down is a possibility at some stage- if I'd been in there selling the open this morning on the SPI, I'd be seriously contemplating an o/n hold:)
 
looks as tho Dow might sell off a bit tonight as well fwiw
Click to expand...

Elwood

Last night/yesterday I saw the dow break its short term on 4hour chart was so close to going short but cuz it had not broke main line I used all my strength and said no.

And it would have been another stop out if I had taken in.

It is still yet to really test old highs, feels looks sluggish to me.
 
SPI7-4.jpg


SPI14-4.jpg


Frank Dilernia
 
Trade_It said:
Elwood

Last night/yesterday I saw the dow break its short term on 4hour chart was so close to going short but cuz it had not broke main line I used all my strength and said no.

And it would have been another stop out if I had taken in.

It is still yet to really test old highs, feels looks sluggish to me.
Click to expand...

I'm close to going short the Wall St. mini, just waiting confirmation on pivots.

Cheers,
 
yes tempted too, but it is counter-trend so risky

I'll be sleeping at the open so might look to stick a limit on around 12,570 looking for a sell down from there with stop above 12,611
 
Edwood said:
yes tempted too, but it is counter-trend so risky

I'll be sleeping at the open so might look to stick a limit on around 12,570 looking for a sell down from there with stop above 12,611
Click to expand...

I think i'll see it open....should be interesting.

Cheers,
 
just had a look at weekly ASX200 & saw we cracked 800pts above the 50ma this morning - farthest we've been above the ma this bull market. The Feb correction we got to 700-ish pts and May '06 also 700-ish.
 
Edwood said:
just had a look at weekly ASX200 & saw we cracked 800pts above the 50ma this morning - farthest we've been above the ma this bull market. The Feb correction we got to 700-ish pts and May '06 also 700-ish.
Click to expand...

Insane isnt it! Too much money, no home i say, very impulsive move...wonder what the opposite reaction will look like lol!!!

Cheers,
 
did you bother staying up Can? I didn't put my order on as it turned out, the idea would have been ok for 30-odd points, but only if I'd stayed up to watch it, otherwise would've stopped out for -30. (btw will post Dow stuff on the Dow thread in future...)

while the ASX is still grinding up, think I'll sit back for a bit & just wait for some topping signals - could have another 150+ in it yet (so I guess I should go long but couldn't look myself in the mirror if I did that) :)
 
Edwood said:
did you bother staying up Can? I didn't put my order on as it turned out, the idea would have been ok for 30-odd points, but only if I'd stayed up to watch it, otherwise would've stopped out for -30. (btw will post Dow stuff on the Dow thread in future...)

while the ASX is still grinding up, think I'll sit back for a bit & just wait for some topping signals - could have another 150+ in it yet (so I guess I should go long but couldn't look myself in the mirror if I did that) :)
Click to expand...

Yes, i stayed up and went short just after the open, watched it drop and then come back and hit my stop, oh well...worth a try. Should have known to fight the trend...only a tiny loss though, about the same as i was up after the open, 300 USD or so. I went to bed at 1 am my time here, so 3 am Melbourne time. I don't think i'll bother doing that again.

I think i'm with you, wait until it tops out.

Cheers,
 
Edwood said:
did you bother staying up Can? I didn't put my order on as it turned out, the idea would have been ok for 30-odd points, but only if I'd stayed up to watch it, otherwise would've stopped out for -30. (btw will post Dow stuff on the Dow thread in future...)

while the ASX is still grinding up, think I'll sit back for a bit & just wait for some topping signals - could have another 150+ in it yet (so I guess I should go long but couldn't look myself in the mirror if I did that) :)
Click to expand...

Yes, i stayed up and went short just after the open, watched it drop and then come back and hit my stop, oh well...worth a try. Should have known to fight the trend...only a tiny loss though, about the same as i was up after the open, 300 USD or so. I went to bed at 1 am my time here, so 3 am Melbourne time. I don't think i'll bother doing that again.

I think i'm with you, wait until it tops out.

Cheers,
 
afternoon - longer-ish term I see McHugh has mid 6,400's fwiw to keep his EW count valid for the current action (ie currently in w5), Twiggs thinks we're heading for 6,350-area. not sure what the equivalent is in SPI terms :eek:

nice spike at the open today, did anyone here fade it?

Frank Dilernia - can you talk me through your chart from Friday pls? not sure I follow whats going on but it looks as though we are at your target for April highs? thanks in advance
 
Edwood said:
Frank Dilernia - can you talk me through your chart from Friday pls? not sure I follow whats going on but it looks as though we are at your target for April highs? thanks in advance
Click to expand...

found your thread Frank & am just reading the AMT report - is that report your work as well? good stuff if it is! :xyxthumbs
 
Frank D said:
Edwood,

there is another thread running on the SPI, that might help you out regarding April highs.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5846

AMT report is for subscribers (bi-weekly) on US markets and SPI, similar as to what's going on in the other thread.

Regards,
Frank Dilernia
Click to expand...

hi Frank - yep thats the thread I found - cheers for that. interesting stuff. so given the April SPI target high is taken out you would now look for the next high, around 6,310 on one of your charts?
 
Edwood,

Short term I’m looking for a 2-day stall/rotation, this lines up with an UP bias on Thursday following my systems. However, between now and Thursday the market can be anywhere, if it is still trading above the 3-month highs on Thursday then I favour a move to 6310, that won’t the case if by Thursday we are another 100 points lower and breaking the 3-day lows.

I never know how far any day will move. If I’m in a trade I ‘hope’ I don’t get stopped out and I ‘hope’ it reaches my exit zones. Everything in the market is random, there are no guarantees, other than following strict trading rules.

With all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of a trading plan.

Support and resistance isn’t some static level in the market that never moves. Support and resistance is dynamic, it constantly moves with the start of each new timeframe. Identifying and clearly defining support and resistance becomes part of my risk/reward strategy. Identifying good risk/reward trades does not guarantee success; however not identifying good risk/reward trades almost always guarantees failure.

Yesterday’s exits zones are an example and hopefully today’s exits zones (6193) are an example. But in reality I never know any outcome until after the event, so I don’t know if 6310 will reach, but by Thursday I should have a better idea.

Frank Dilernia

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5846&page=2
 

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