Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[Edwood]

Evening - some good swings the last few days, hope you're all on the right side of them! have been moving house so unfortunately not able to participate

 

[dodgers]

So what does everyone think... Correction Over??

Here's yesterdays tech wrap-up from Macquarie...

Today’s strength has taken the market through resistance at 5919 which is at face value a positive indication and necessitates consideration of the possibility that an important lowpoint is in place. However, the structure warrants a degree of caution as it is not entirely constructive despite the break. Ongoing price action above 5919 over coming days would strengthen the case for continued uptrend to new highs. A failure to hold levels above support at 5969 would be somewhat negative. A break of lower support at 5895 needs to occur for a clearly bearish pattern to re-emerge.

 

[MoMoney]

If it fails a retest of 5920, then theres more downside, if it holds, consolidates or bounces and runs, correction over!!

 

[CanOz]

Professor or Bronte, or anyone, are you guys trading this recent volitility?

Cheers,

 

[Bronte]

Professor or Bronte, or anyone, are you guys trading this recent volitility?

Hi CanOz,
Yes, we are still "Trading the SPI''
(almost every day now since 1996)
We love this recent volatility

 

[CanOz]

Hi CanOz,
Yes, we are still "Trading the SPI''
(almost every day now since 1996)
We love this recent volatility

That move down this afternoon (still not over) was so sudden...how do you trade those?

Cheers,

 

[Bronte]

Yesterday was confirmation of the Double Top
6050 26th February
6052 26th March
Both Big Numbers
One month apart

 

[Bronte]

That move down this afternoon (still not over) was so sudden...how do you trade those? Cheers,

We just trade what we see CanOz.

 

[Edwood]

I'm around too C - but on client site so having to resort to 'swing trading' - i.e., watching it come in & out of profit & getting annoyed when I can't close when I want

Interesting that SPI went that high Bronte - CMC didn't go anywhere near it, nudged over 6,000 but that was it. Am short on the CMC contract from 5,973 so happy to see this come off after the run up but not confident it will go down much as support looks stronger here in Aus than on US - imho.

 

[Edwood]

closed my short for +43 - lots of bullish harmonics showing on US indicies so a chance of a bounce there which will no doubt affect ASX. can't trade intra-day at the moment so having to use limit orders. assuming we don't tank from here will be looking to re-enter shorts higher up

 

[professor_frink]

Professor or Bronte, or anyone, are you guys trading this recent volitility?

Cheers,

Hi CanOz,

yes, trading as per usual for me- focusing on the nikkei, and play around on the HSI, so not really trading the SPI much presently.
In regards to trading moves like the one yesterday, you could have used almost any standard trend following technique to grab a piece of it-looking for lower highs/lows, MA's, etc.

Not sure if you get volume with the CFD index you're following, but there was a big vol increase as we came out of the lunchtime drift and the down move gathered momentum. So that could be one area to look at.

Daily pivot points would have given multiple opportunities to enter- after each support level was broken, there was a retracement and test of S1,S2 and the S3 levels yesterday on a 1 minute chart, so that could be another method to look at.

During this correction, most moves have been beginning/ending around S/R levels from the Jan/feb run up, so that could be another thing to look at for possible trades.

If you do decide to do some intraday trading, and come up with a method your comfortable with, you won't be worried at all by moves like yesterday-
they'll be the days you get excited about!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I'm around too C - but on client site so having to resort to 'swing trading' - i.e., watching it come in & out of profit & getting annoyed when I can't close when I want

Interesting that SPI went that high Bronte - CMC didn't go anywhere near it, nudged over 6,000 but that was it. Am short on the CMC contract from 5,973 so happy to see this come off after the run up but not confident it will go down much as support looks stronger here in Aus than on US - imho.

Edwood you sure is is the actual SPI and not there aussie200XJO or similar?

I saw the IG aussie200XJO just touched over 6000 but saw that the SPI went right over 6000 to 6050

See attached aussie200 forwards chart that is the IG SPI Contract

Don't yell, if i am wrong!

 

[wiseguy]

Edwood you sure is is the actual SPI and not there aussie200XJO or similar?

I saw the IG aussie200XJO just touched over 6000 but saw that the SPI went right over 6000 to 6050

See attached aussie200 forwards chart that is the IG SPI Contract

Don't yell, if i am wrong!

cmc's aussie200 only reached 6009 on the 26th March.
anyone know how cmc or IG derive their data?

 

[professor_frink]

Interesting that SPI went that high Bronte - CMC didn't go anywhere near it, nudged over 6,000 but that was it. Am short on the CMC contract from 5,973 so happy to see this come off after the run up but not confident it will go down much as support looks stronger here in Aus than on US - imho.

There was contract rollover for the futs in between the 2 highs. Fair value on the June contract will generally be higher as there is longer to expiry.

 

[Kauri]

cmc's aussie200 only reached 6009 on the 26th March.
anyone know how cmc or IG derive their data?

They are Market Makers so it is basically their own pricing model based on their assesment of the market, the vol and direction (long/short) of what they hold, and the underlying. Similar to Bookmakers.

 

[Edwood]

Edwood you sure is is the actual SPI and not there aussie200XJO or similar?

I saw the IG aussie200XJO just touched over 6000 but saw that the SPI went right over 6000 to 6050

See attached aussie200 forwards chart that is the IG SPI Contract

Don't yell, if i am wrong!

course not Trade_It!!

looks like CMC are showing the XJO contract then I guess - never quite sure as it tends to skew (I am using the UK spreadbet contract). Out of interest how are you guys findign the CFD product in terms of how closely does the price track XJO and whats speed of execution like during market hours? and does it trade "24 hrs"? (sorry too lazy to look it up myself!)

ta in advance

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Frink and others the SPI does not have any breaks during the day does it? 24hours.

Also the Spi contracts you trade, do they have a dealing spread, or is that only a CFD thing?

 

[Edwood]

They are Market Makers so it is basically their own pricing model based on their assesment of the market, the vol and direction (long/short) of what they hold, and the underlying. Similar to Bookmakers.

yes thats right - Am in the process of opening an IB account to try to get around those issues, nearly there! (its a bit of a process)

 

[wiseguy]

course not Trade_It!!

looks like CMC are showing the XJO contract then I guess - never quite sure as it tends to skew (I am using the UK spreadbet contract). Out of interest how are you guys findign the CFD product in terms of how closely does the price track XJO and whats speed of execution like during market hours? and does it trade "24 hrs"? (sorry too lazy to look it up myself!)

ta in advance

i find the fills on cmc to be pretty quick 1-2 seconds, except during big announcements during the US session, where you can quite often get requoted.

 

[professor_frink]

Frink and others the SPI does not have any breaks during the day does it? 24hours.

Also the Spi contracts you trade, do they have a dealing spread, or is that only a CFD thing?

yes it has breaks. It's open from 9:50am-4:30pm, then reopens at 5:10pm. It shuts again at 7, or 8 am, depending on U.S daylight saving.

contract specs for SFE products here http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/trading/con_specs.pdf

No dealing spread, that's a CFD thing.