Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[professor_frink]

Don't have access to Shanghai, but the Hong Kong H shares are getting flogged- down 1.95% in the morning session. Futs on the H-shares off 2.45%. Can't imagine Shanghai is doing too well

<edit> Singapore has a Chinese index as well- FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50. It's down about 4.6%

This is getting real ugly-
HSI just gapped down after lunch and preceded to lose another 150+ pts
HK H shares futs off by 4% now.
FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 off by 6%

<edit>- make that 200 pts from the lunch break on the HSI

 

[Edwood]

bring it on!

a bit from McHugh - reckons we could have a little more to go, ie we could just be in a 4 - altho we could have seen a shallow 4 last week, guess we'll know soon enough...

 

[CanOz]

This is getting real ugly-
HSI just gapped down after lunch and preceded to lose another 150+ pts
HK H shares futs off by 4% now.
FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 off by 6%

<edit>- make that 200 pts from the lunch break on the HSI

Found a daily chart of the Shanghai comp. 600 points!!!!!! 7%, is that right?

 

[professor_frink]

Found a daily chart of the Shanghai comp. 600 points!!!!!! 7%, is that right?

That sounds about right.

I think the FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 futures I'm watching is a similar index.

Interesting chart Ed. Is it in log scale? Wave 1 looks bigger than 3

 

[Edwood]

That sounds about right.

I think the FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 futures I'm watching is a similar index.

Interesting chart Ed. Is it in log scale? Wave 1 looks bigger than 3

w3 cannot be the shortest - he has w1 extending, and a 6,400-ish constraint on w5 to keep within the 'rules' - otherwise his count will be incorrect. his count is pretty bearish tho as he has us riding into a major top - not sure about that, others have us in a major 3. will try to stick up an alternative shortly

 

[Edwood]

nope the alternative count isn't on my laptop - PC is all packed up ready for a move - its all a bit too long term anyway, so will just have to concentrate on the action around that trend line for now

 

[professor_frink]

nope the alternative count isn't on my laptop - PC is all packed up ready for a move - its all a bit too long term anyway, so will just have to concentrate on the action around that trend line for now

That trendline you posted earlier may be in danger tomorrow-By my chart, we've got price sitting right near the trendline(which I wouldn't have much faith in, given how steep it is), and price has been rejected pretty convincingly at a monthly pivot.
With the Dow off over 50 already, and the SPI has lost 40 pts since the day session closed, we could be in for a bit of a move down

here's the chart-

 

[Edwood]

well I guess thats the trend line gone then - CMC offering 5,865 atm

 

[professor_frink]

well I guess thats the trend line gone then - CMC offering 5,865 atm

morning Ed,
closest thing to short term support I can find is the 3rd Jan highs. Maybe not today, but in the next couple definately could be in play.

Thinking of coming out of retirement for today's spi open
Then move on to the nikkei open.
Then move on to HSI open.

Gunna be a busy day!

 

[Sean K]

Thinking of coming out of retirement for today's spi open
Then move on to the nikkei open.
Then move on to HSI open.

Frink, do you mean buy the open, for the recovery?

 

[professor_frink]

Thanks for that Prof...i was watching the whole thing unfold and i liquidated everything before the close...i hope i didn' jump the gun.

I think its quite exciting, all cashed up and ready to go.

Cheers,

Doesn't look like you jumped the gun CanOz

May have been quite a good call

 

[professor_frink]

Frink, do you mean buy the open, for the recovery?

Na. Even if it looked like setting up for a long on the open, I'd prefer to trade a breakdown of any rally today.

May be more inclined to look for a late afternoon rally if we don't get smashed too much during the morning session, but would do that strictly as a quick scalp-no o/n holds at all.

 

[CanOz]

Doesn't look like you jumped the gun CanOz

May have been quite a good call

Thanks Prof....I think the buying climax was Friday. Now to watch and try and pick the selling climax. Awesome learning experience.

Cheers,

 

[professor_frink]

Anyone got market depth right now- mine's gone awol

 

[Edwood]

morning

we'#re now at 50% retrace of the move out of Jan 7 low, closed my shorts for now, will see how the day develops. good stuff hey! great action. Dow was a bit hairy this am tho

 

[professor_frink]

morning

we'#re now at 50% retrace of the move out of Jan 7 low, closed my shorts for now, will see how the day develops. good stuff hey! great action. Dow was a bit hairy this am tho

yeah it looks like it's found some short term support- I didn't have any buy depth this morning- It just came back a couple of minutes ago
50% of that move up on the futs is 5765, with a weekly pivot @ 78

<edit> we have an upside break above the weekly pivot. No chance of me going long on it but- think I'll just wait for the nik to open

 

[dodgers]

Good call guys, got my shorts on yesterday morning (a big difference from last year when I got nailed!)

What's your strategy from here....maybe the chance to increase short position on any technical bounce today up to the 5850 level before continuing the journey down...?

 

[professor_frink]

morning dodgers.

We've bounced after retracing 50% of the move up from the Jan lows, and have found a bit of resistence @ 5800 in this morning's trade. If it bounces from here may depend on what the rest of Asia do- if the nik & HSI bounce off the open, we may have a bottom, otherwise look out below

 

[Edwood]

hi dodgers - not sure what I'll do next to be totally honest I wasn't expecting it to come off this fast! will just see how the action is today, probably just sit back & wait for it to settle & take my signals around the 1day MA. 5,700 area (61% retrace) is possible but seems content with 50% for the moment & there's a decent gap above to fill!! anyone got an exact figure on the size of the gap?

 

[professor_frink]

the opening gap was 215.
the gap from today's high to yesterday's low is 179.

Currently the nik is dn 700