Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[>Apocalypto<]

what's an ETCFD Trade it?

hey Frink,

I mean the new ASX cfd's coming this year or Exchange Traded CFD's

sorry not to make that clear

 

[Edwood]

Trade-It - copied from the ASX website:

"In Quarter 2, 2007, ASX will launch the world's first Exchange Traded CFD market. Exchange Traded CFDs will be listed on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). The proposed suite of Exchange Traded CFDs includes CFDs on:

• ASX's Top 50 Stocks,
• Major global equity indices,
• Key FX crosses, and
• Selected commodities."

thought it might lead to increased volumes for SPI, but probably not if only the top 50 stocks from ASX are included (added - unless of course ASX200 is included as one of the major indices).

you can sign up for email updates re: CFD's

 

[Edwood]

very quiet here atm - everyone on holiday?

whats the view then? market pausing before more up, or are we at key resistance and due a pull-back? I guess time will tell . here's a 4hr view of continuous contract - am looking for some downside now

 

[nat]

Hi ed wood it is quite in this section isnt it ,miss the old thread a bit was always something on the go ,im afraid i havent much to add still in learning mode ,got whipsawed the smorning and only made up a heap of points when left trade opened when thought had closed everything ,bit of a worry when thats my best trade for day ,another day another lesson ,thiink market is in balance at moment waiting for a break either way .Nathan

 

[professor_frink]

howdy Ed, nat,

haven't been trading the SPI much recently-quite enjoy the late starts on the HSI, and the current volatility in it makes for some very interesting trading.

Will be back to post if I start trading it again

 

[Edwood]

ha ha - you gotta laugh hey Nat still, it worked out OK, hope you're still long

sheesh seems to be little point trying to short the 'tops', may as well take my bear suit off & join in the buy the dips brigade! I guess as the amount of short interest increases it becomes easier for 'the boys' to kick off swift short-covering rallies

 

[Edwood]

howdy Ed, nat,

haven't been trading the SPI much recently-quite enjoy the late starts on the HSI, and the current volatility in it makes for some very interesting trading.

Will be back to post if I start trading it again

aye am a big fan of late starts Prof, ASX opens at noon for me. glad to hear HSI is working out!

 

[Edwood]

right - have printed this off & stuck it next to the PC...

"buy the dips, buy the dips, buy the dips"

couldn't be more simple really

 

[professor_frink]

aye am a big fan of late starts Prof, ASX opens at noon for me. glad to hear HSI is working out!

cheers Ed

right - have printed this off & stuck it next to the PC...

"buy the dips, buy the dips, buy the dips"

couldn't be more simple really

Don't forget to print one off that says "sell the rallies"- It will be needed at some point as well

 

[Edwood]

yeah I guess I should do that, but until it bends I'll stick with the trend

the bollies are contracting & we have a bullish looking symmetrical triangle so could be another moooove coming

 

[professor_frink]

It'll be interesting to see if it runs.
HSI is losing an arm and a leg atm, here's an example of why I'm not super keen on the SPI atm

 

[Edwood]

aww, don't show me that Prof!! sheesh. no wonder you've been quiet. here's hoping we'll get a bit of that over here soon then

 

[professor_frink]

aww, don't show me that Prof!! sheesh. no wonder you've been quiet. here's hoping we'll get a bit of that over here soon then

There was an even bigger day last thursday
The SGX nik contract just opened down 30 pts(it opens 15 min before the Japanese ones), and the SPI is starting to follow it.

"sell the rallies,sell the rallies"

 

[Edwood]

great stuff mate - looks like you timed it perfectly to start getting involved over there. I hear its turned into a real bubble, people queuing outside broker offices in China trying to open accounts - like lambs to the slaughter!

some interesting notes coming out lately, don't know if you've come across McHugh? he has Mar 12 lined up as an important date - if you believe that whole fibonnacci thing of course

anyway, I'll let you get back to making money!

 

[Edwood]

typical - looks like a bullish triangle which wasn't, at least I got another long on at the dip!

 

[Edwood]

a bit on China for you Prof... have fun

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[Edwood]

charging away! but starting to run out of steam. assuming we gap open again today you'd have to think its getting exhaustive in nature

 

[nat]

Hi all ,was this a day for a gap trade down ,was thinking it was but didnt take it ,maybe next time Nathan

 

[Edwood]

hi Nat - took a short myself on todays gap but have to confess I am not an expert on them (sounds like Bronte is your man) or ASX for that matter as have only been following it for a few weeks now but it does seem that ASX likes to fill its gaps & definitely something to get on to as it goes a bit flat after the opening couple of hours

someone has probably done some analysis on it - eg gap size as a % move from previous close & the probability of gap fill - 100% fill, 75% & 50% proportionate to gap size - & you could set up your trades accordingly

 

[professor_frink]

morning all-
Cheers for the article Ed, would make for great trading if it all fell to pieces like the nasdaq did

In regards to this morning's gap nat, what I'd be looking for is a gap open with a decent spread between the cash and futures(30-40 pts), and I'd be looking for a move down through a pivot level in the first 5 minutes or so. For these types of plays, I like the see the futures moving down well before the cash opens.
This morning on open, the spi was trading at less than a 20 pt premium, and the spi gapped up above R2 and held there leading up to the cash opening, which for me, makes it just as likely to be a gap and go kind of play, as opposed to a gap and fill one.