Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[Joolean]

Hey ac or GMS, wondering if I could I get your comment on some hypothetical market psychology.

I'm no pitchfork expert but I added these lines where it looked logical.
My thinking is that if we break the middle orange line, then we're probably breaking out of the current daily range, and it's a long way down from there. However in shorting the R3 line near the close, I was worried about a play back to the R2 line as it did on the open.

This question might be nonsensical as it hasn't actually played out and I know diddly about market participants, but if we were going to break lower, is there any logic to thinking that "They'd" want to shake out the shorts before doing so and buy it up 10 points to R2 first?
The spike up at open seemed to be testing the overnight value, but I can't see that there's anything left to test by a move to R2 again.
Of course I have no notion of who 'They' are or if 'They' exist.
I'm interested in the intentions behind market movements and just wondered if you could offer an opinion on that scenario or at least confirm my idiocy on market mechanics.

Cheers,
Jules.

 

[Joolean]

Oh oops. I just realised the image I attached is missing the R labels I'd added somehow.
I won't bother re-attaching. The top down sloping orange line was R1, the white line below that was R2 and the white line below that one was R3.
As it stands, we broke higher in the evening session, but not as I'd hypothesized anyway. Still curious on your take of what this move up would mean if we were to then roll over.

 

[acouch]

Oh oops. I just realised the image I attached is missing the R labels I'd added somehow.
I won't bother re-attaching. The top down sloping orange line was R1, the white line below that was R2 and the white line below that one was R3.
As it stands, we broke higher in the evening session, but not as I'd hypothesized anyway. Still curious on your take of what this move up would mean if we were to then roll over.

as per chart the market is on a downward trend,and as your arrow indicates you would expect the market to do just that and you would enter on the touch of the upward line to take your short to the mid orange ML again to take profit..or snug your stop in at a higher place if you wanted to trail.
but remember the mid line is the 50%, and always a good place to take profit
hope this helps jules
have a great weekend
ac

 

[acouch]

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac

 

[Joolean]

as per chart the market is on a downward trend,and as your arrow indicates you would expect the market to do just that and you would enter on the touch of the upward line to take your short to the mid orange ML again to take profit..or snug your stop in at a higher place if you wanted to trail.
but remember the mid line is the 50%, and always a good place to take profit
hope this helps jules
have a great weekend
ac

Thanks ac. That scenario roughly panned out in the end. Perhaps it's selective hindsight vision, but it amazes me how well price tracks such straight lines. Profiting off them is another matter.

I've been tracking volume at price with market delta for a while now, and volume seems almost entirely secondary to price targets. It's useful, but it's as if price is going to get to a particular point no matter what volume gets in the way.

 

[GMS]

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated within key resistance and support levels 4683 to 4724 on Friday, in a session of development following the distributive break lower in the prior sessions.

Overnight the market initially continued to develop in the range, then triggered a distributive break lower that extended to 4646. Responsive buying rotated the market higher in the morning session to close at 4694.

The distributive break lower Friday night, continues the trend of prior sessions. The failure of a rejecting responsive buy tail at the low and double distribution to the downside indicate continuation of the bearish bias.

The point of control is 4693. A break above opens potential for a rotation to initially 4711 then 4724. A break at 4683 opens potential for a break to 4665.

Resistance levels 4700, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752, 4763, 4771, 4784
Support levels 4693, 4683, 4671, 4665/60, 4643, 4626, 4618, 4602/4595.


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4685 to 4735
Overnight Session 4655 to 4700


Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.

 

[Broadway]

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated within key resistance and support levels 4683 to 4724 on Friday, in a session of development following the distributive break lower in the prior sessions.

Overnight the market initially continued to develop in the range, then triggered a distributive break lower that extended to 4646. Responsive buying rotated the market higher in the morning session to close at 4694.

The distributive break lower Friday night, continues the trend of prior sessions. The failure of a rejecting responsive buy tail at the low and double distribution to the downside indicate continuation of the bearish bias.

The point of control is 4693. A break above opens potential for a rotation to initially 4711 then 4724. A break at 4683 opens potential for a break to 4665.

Resistance levels 4700, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752, 4763, 4771, 4784
Support levels 4693, 4683, 4671, 4665/60, 4643, 4626, 4618, 4602/4595.

Hello GMS,
Thankyou for contributing.
I was wondering if you could define some of your phrases in laymans terms, please.
- 'in a session of development' ?
- 'distributive break lower' ?
- 'double distribution to the downside' ?

Is your method based on Market Profile or something else?

Regards,
Broadway.

 

[GMS]

Hello Broadway,

My analysis is based off market profile and capital flow charting. Development is horizontal price action on the chart and is the market accepting prices in a range. The market is said to be balancing.

Distribution is vertical price action with the market breaking out of a development and taking a new directional move - higher or lower. In this situation the market is said to be imbalanced.

The double distribution should be double development. In theory a market that has made two developments in a session has a bias in the direction that the two developments were established. On Friday night the market made the second development to the downside of the first, therefore indicating a bearish bias.

Let me know if you would like more information.

Cheers

 

[GMS]

Jules,

Without intimate knowledge of the market participant's intentions, its impossible to speculate that they are squeezing the shorts before selling the market lower. For all we know it could be a participant seeing value and buying on this view.

That said, keeping records and establishing whether the market is likely to rebound to the R2 line more often than not following taking a short on the R3 line, gives you a sharpert view of the market.

cheers.

 

[Joolean]

Thanks GMS. Yeah I take your point.
Perhaps I have too much time on my hands , but when I'm watching every trade go by, it gets me thinking about who and why someone bought or sold at a particular price. I can't ever really know but I do find it useful to contemplate, or second guess.

Presumably the market movers aren't sitting there like me trying to work out which direction it's going minute by minute, but instead know whether they want to enter/exit the market and at which prices ahead of time based on a combination of fundamentals and charts. Then set about obfuscating the execution of those orders during the day or have a program do it for them.

Jules.

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac

 

[GMS]

Good Morning,


The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated higher off the open yesterday on a responsive buy tail at 4695. Overnight the market continued higher, distributing to 4783, to rotate back to key level 4746 and closing 4762.

The market has rejected the downside distribution, returning to the established development of the last fortnight, where the market built price efficiency around 4762 (SPI Analysis report 19/11)

Key resistance is at 4784, a break opens potential for an extension of the current distribution to 4804 then 4812.
Key support is at 4762, a break opens potential for a rotation to the lower side of the prior development 4752 and 4746.

Resistance levels 4771, 4784, 4790, 4804, 4812, 4818, 4833, 4844. 4852
Support levels 4762, 4752, 4746, 4724, 4718, 4711, 4700, 4694, 4683

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4669 to 4724
Overnight Session 4739 to 4768


Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.

 

[acouch]

spi road map eod trading
ac

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
this is the last one for the week as i will be away
for a few days..road map back for Monday's trading
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[GMS]

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated off the development high early yesterday, extending lower through the day session. Overnight the market continued the distribution lower to 4679, to then rotate higher to key resistance 4724, where responsive selling again rotated the market lower.
The market has rotated lower, although responsive buying overnight rejected the continuation of a distributive break lower. Key support is at 4683, a break opens potential for continuation of the distributive break and imbalance. Key resistance is initially at 4724 then 4746

Resistance levels 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752/55, 4763, 4771
Support levels 4700, 4693, 4683, 4671, 4665/60, 4643, 4626

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4720 to 4766
Overnight Session 4686 to 4709.



Have a good day

 

[GMS]

Good Morning,


The SPI200 December 09 contract initially rotated lower yesterday to key support 4683, triggering a responsive buy tail that rotated the market higher initially to key resistance 4724. A late session break of 4724 took the market higher into the close.

Overnight the market continued the rotation higher, to key resistance level 4762, and closing at 4759.

The market has again failed to break the 4683 development low and distribute lower. The rotation higher puts the market back in the established development. Early signs of a responsive sell tail trigger at 4762 into the close this morning, indicates the market may be rejecting an advance above this level, although we require confirmation of the signal on the reopen.
Key resistance is initially at 4762 and development high 4779/84. A break of this level opens potential for a new distribution and imbalance. Key support is initially at the current point of control 4746 then 4724.

Resistance levels, 4762, 4771, 4779/84, 4790, 4804, 4812, 4818, 4833, 4844
Support levels 4752, 4746, 4724, 4718, 4711, 4700, 4694, 4683

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4690 to 4716
Overnight Session 4737 to 4751.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.

 

[GMS]

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract failed in its extension higher on the open yesterday, rotating lower back through the development through the session.

Overnight in the shortened session, the market triggered an initiating sell tail at 4702 and the market distributed lower out of the development low 4683 to 4656 where responsive buying rotated the market back to a high of 4683, and the market rotated within this range into the close.

The market has made a distributive break to the downside raising the potential for increased volatility and imbalance today. A continuation of the distribution today opens key support at 4647 and 4621. Key resistance is at 4683 and 4702.

Resistance levels, 4683, 4689, 4700/02, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752
Support levels 4671, 4665/60, 4647, 4626, 4621, 4602/4595, 4586, 4579, 4569

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4723 to 4750
Overnight Session 4659 to 4695

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[GMS]

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the distribution lower Friday on the reopen, triggering a responsive buy tail at 4568 that rejected the break lower. The market rotated higher through the remainder of the session developing in a 4569 to 4611 range.
The market opened Friday night and resumed the distribution lower, to a responsive buy tail at 4644, that rejects the break, and the market rotates higher. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4605 extending the move higher to 4657, where responsive selling caps the advance and the market develops through the remainder of the session.
Key resistance is at 4656, then 4683, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4700/02. Initial support is at 4626, and key support at 4611, a break here opens potential for a rotation back to 4589 and 4567.

Resistance levels, 4643, 4656, 4660, 4665, 4761, 4683, 4689, 4700/02, 4711, 4718
Support levels 4626, 4818, 4611, 4605, 4597, 4586, 4579, 4567, 4563, 4544

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4582 to 4667
Overnight Session 4564 to 4627


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.

 

[acouch]

afternoon all
a day in the life of the spi
ac