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no, as the market is a living thing, to get 80% right you are doing ok, that is for sure..
if you are in wrong get out..it is as simple as that
have a great day
ac
Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques
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no, as the market is a living thing, to get 80% right you are doing ok, that is for sure..
if you are in wrong get out..it is as simple as that
have a great day
ac
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no, as the market is a living thing, to get 80% right you are doing ok, that is for sure..
if you are in wrong get out..it is as simple as that
have a great day
ac
No, I mean if there has been any study on whether the 20% failures (to reach the median) are randomly distributed, or whether they might be more likely to fail if against the trend, if there is no trend, if a large retracement is needed etc. The price might reach the median 80% of the time, but that doesn't mean that is the case for all situations. Some may be better than others? It's not that significant, I'm just curious.
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skc
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Gee I must be missing something, I trade the SPI everyday and just mimic the Cash direction , usually at a premium most times .
Yes there are extensions that I reverse on , and overplays as well
Bobby, can you elaborate on this a little bit? My understanding is that the SPI leads the cash market in Australia. For example yesterday when the Chinese GDP figures were out, the SPI fell a lot faster than the XJO.
Do you watch the cash as in XJO, or the major components within it?
Do you use an XJO chart for direction? If so, how's that different to watching the SPI chart instead?
thanks
Hi SKC,
Sorry to get back so late .
Yes I do agree the SPI leads the cash , all I do is trade off what the cash is doing , I watch this site http://www.bellpotter.com.au/market_activity/
as well as the XJO & SPI one minute chart for signals to enter & exit all day long .
I'm jumping in & out running up to 5 contracts at a time , dropping & adding these at a whim , flipping direction often .
All done without any stops
Hi SKC,
Sorry to get back so late .
Yes I do agree the SPI leads the cash , all I do is trade off what the cash is doing , I watch this site http://www.bellpotter.com.au/market_activity/
as well as the XJO & SPI one minute chart for signals to enter & exit all day long .
I'm jumping in & out running up to 5 contracts at a time , dropping & adding these at a whim , flipping direction often .
All done without any stops
stops are way over rated i agree Bob !!
stops are way over rated i agree Bob !!
Yep they take the edge off
Also I can't set them until after the trade is entered , that tiny bit of time is critical for hitting the close out button if need be .
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Neither futures or cash lead really, sometimes it's one, other times it's the other.
I personally would never trade just off cash, but if it's approaching a level (say resistance) and then cash moves away (down) after hitting that level, then it's probably being defended and therefore, the futures probably won't be able to be used to push it through. But you have to be fast. Other than that or if a big cash level is broken (like when we came down through 3817 or 18 today, signalling a false break of the previous cash high back in January), then I personally don't find cash overly useful. Only use it for levels, or sometimes to confirm what the stocks are doing if the big ones are moving.
My
I personally would never trade just off cash, but if it's approaching a level (say resistance) and then cash moves away (down) after hitting that level, then it's probably being defended and therefore, the futures probably won't be able to be used to push it through. But you have to be fast. Other than that or if a big cash level is broken (like when we came down through 3817 or 18 today, signalling a false break of the previous cash high back in January), then I personally don't find cash overly useful. Only use it for levels, or sometimes to confirm what the stocks are doing if the big ones are moving.
My
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I think the biggest influences on the spi are regional (Asian).
Sometimes hints about trends can come from Japanese Government Bonds. (JGB).
JGB showed bullish price action and volume early on Friday and when it broke north at around 1130am, I figured Asia would head south and the SPI would have to follow.
Sometimes hints about trends can come from Japanese Government Bonds. (JGB).
JGB showed bullish price action and volume early on Friday and when it broke north at around 1130am, I figured Asia would head south and the SPI would have to follow.
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Interesting Broadway, I know of a few who trade JGBs and SPI, and they have never picked up a correlation they can trade off that I know of, but I will look into it.
Cheers for the comment.
Cheers for the comment.
I noticed at times the JGB is inverted to the N225, and its relatives - n225m, topx and sgxnk.(which I guess is stating something obvious to bond traders).
And if the N225 has a big influence over the entire Asia region, then A=B=C.
I think a mathematical correlation would prove to be poor because bond moves often happen before index moves. I think bond traders are a slightly more experienced crowd. But if any bonds start moving and trending, I wouldnt be making a trade against the bond move.
The real bearishness of Friday actually started at 5-6am Friday when the ES made a double top at HOD with alot of volume on stocks and ETFs.
In fact,Ive been seeing alot of volume coming into peaks for most of last week in Europe and the US. It's just that surprise good earnings results keep bumping up the market. I think if this coming week isnt bearish, then the permabears will finally give up and cover.
FAZ has become one of the top 10 traded ETFs in the US recently.(Bear financial ETF).
It has either exploded in popularity just last week or the next leg down could be significant from the volume coming in.
And if the N225 has a big influence over the entire Asia region, then A=B=C.
I think a mathematical correlation would prove to be poor because bond moves often happen before index moves. I think bond traders are a slightly more experienced crowd. But if any bonds start moving and trending, I wouldnt be making a trade against the bond move.
The real bearishness of Friday actually started at 5-6am Friday when the ES made a double top at HOD with alot of volume on stocks and ETFs.
In fact,Ive been seeing alot of volume coming into peaks for most of last week in Europe and the US. It's just that surprise good earnings results keep bumping up the market. I think if this coming week isnt bearish, then the permabears will finally give up and cover.
FAZ has become one of the top 10 traded ETFs in the US recently.(Bear financial ETF).
It has either exploded in popularity just last week or the next leg down could be significant from the volume coming in.
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All good comments Broadway and I agree.
Thanks.
Thanks.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Agree as well, some valuable observations Broadway. I've been watching SKF, the Ultrashort Financial ETF, maybe i'll post a chart tomorrow, but there has been dip buying all last week.
Got stopped out of all US shorts mid week, but have a few more to post for Monday. The thing is, there are not really any good short patterns, only signals with massively overbought indicators. Hardly anything to be considered probable.
My only worry, and this may sound amateurish, is when this decline starts, it could be a snap drop and difficult to jump on board unless one is prepared to load up on some shorts before hand. Hope that makes sense.
Cheers,
CanOz
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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After readng my last post this morning it seems a bit off topic, sorry SPI traders....too much wine i think..
Good trades!
CanOz
, sorry SPI traders....too much wine i think..Good trades!
CanOz
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for those interested in Medianline's
this says it all..77 pages worth printing out..
you will have to join the forum though to gain access
have a great day
ac
http://www.marketgeometry.com/forum/Fisher.pdf
this says it all..77 pages worth printing out..
you will have to join the forum though to gain access
have a great day
ac
http://www.marketgeometry.com/forum/Fisher.pdf
Thanks, I'll take a look at it.
I'm going to watch the SPI this week to see whether the better hours (as opposed to trading the SPY during US hours) are worth it. I ruled it out completely a couple of weeks ago due to the spread, but now I'm trading longer timeframes (the equivalent of say a 5 minute chart) I'm hoping it won't be so bad.
I'm going to watch the SPI this week to see whether the better hours (as opposed to trading the SPY during US hours) are worth it. I ruled it out completely a couple of weeks ago due to the spread, but now I'm trading longer timeframes (the equivalent of say a 5 minute chart) I'm hoping it won't be so bad.
