Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques

[acouch]

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac

 

[Euler]

Watch trading levels @

*5088
5057
**5025
5001
***4976
4945
**4913
4889
*4864

for today.

nb: r2 values included due to wider range being made

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

 

[nat]

To euler and acouch have a great day both of youse,and thanx again for your posts, when satisfied with way my spi trading going wil post something of worth that might help . Nathan

 

[Euler]

Nat, always good to have you here and your views. Take it slow and tread carefully with it. Learn and study and read and talk to anyone that will listen. And keep posting your views .... your methods are as valid as the next trader's as long as it works for you.
Good trading.


Watch trading levels @

*5143
5121
**5098
5057
***5015
4993
**4970
4929
*4887

for today.

nb: r2 values included due to wider range being made

 

[acouch]

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day,and good trades
ac

 

[Euler]

Watch trading levels @

*5214
5189
**5164
5133
***5101
5076
**5051
5020
*4988

for today.

 

[Crez]

HI guys, first post but I been reading the thread for a while now - great reading for a semi novice like myself. I have to throw one out to you guys to see if someone can help one of my friends with an exit plan. He has beeen in a pickle with some CFD aussie 200 contracts for a couple of months and trying to manage them has proven very difficult. I can't think of an exit without taking a helathy loss, so maybe you guys can. Here's the situation :
CFD $25 contracts
LONG -5849
LONG- 5272
SHORT X2 - 4860

The 4860 contract was cover as he was going to fall into margin. The 5849 long he was happy to hold onto thinking the 200 was only going to fall to 5300 or so. Capital spare is around $3000. I can't think of an exit without him taking a possible 15k loss. Can anyone put any further light on an exit strategy? I realise there are some "cluey" guys on the site like Euler, TH, AC etc, any thoughts would be much appreciated.

Cheers

Crez

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sorry Crez that don't make sense? (to me)

Whats the net position?? And at what average price?

 

[Crez]

Hi TH, at current levels the postions are roughly this:
5849 - down $17k
5272 - down $3k
4860 - down $14k
Oh and he has a long term postion of some US stock which is also down roughly 5k. Total balance of the trading account is 43k. Margin on each contract is worth 2.5 k, he is fully hedged at the moment.
Thanks for the quick response TH,
Cheers

Crez

 

[korrupt_1]

any thoughts would be much appreciated.z

From my calculations your friend hedged at around a nett loss of some 1400pts ($35K!!!) Can I ask why it took soo long to take action? Anyway, that's besides the point.

Your friend has basically locked a $35K loss in. Whatever he does, that's the amount that he's going to loose. If he was to close any of the long or shorts, and the market moves against him, he's going dig a deeper hole. The one thing he can do is to MINIMISE that loss - with the best case scenerio of him getting 100% of it back.

What I'd do is to look for when the market is extremely Oversold or Overbought (or any other strong technical indicators) that a change in direction is going to happen and take a risk and close one of the hedge contracts off. Then pray that once the hedge is closed, the market will move in his favour. If the market doesn't move in his favour, this is where you'll need to implement stop losses and try to preseve as much of that remaining $3K capital as possible.

Once the market looks like it's about to change direction, you can always re-hedge to lock in the new losses... hopefully some figure less than $35K.

Basically, what he's attempting to do is to use what's left of that $3K and turn that in $35K....

I also bet that daily interest is killing him? Perhaps close the contracts off (yes... realising his losses) and re-opening them when your CFD broker has finished calculating open positions for interest calculations. Just remember that $35K is your target to get back...

Other than that... especially to new traders... never get yourself into such situation... always use stop loss and have a trading plan on when things go bad... you have an escape route!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Hi TH, at current levels the postions are roughly this:
5849 - down $17k
5272 - down $3k
4860 - down $14k
Oh and he has a long term postion of some US stock which is also down roughly 5k. Total balance of the trading account is 43k. Margin on each contract is worth 2.5 k, he is fully hedged at the moment.
Thanks for the quick response TH,
Cheers

Crez

So Crez just to be clear is he long and short the same contract in the same Account

Or has he two diff accounts?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Why trade CFD`s without a stop loss?I did once and will never again.It is financial suicide.




.

 

[Crez]

Thanks K, agreed with the risk management - an absolute must. His postion on the trading front is very much part time. The contract that is the problem from my end is the 4860 short - I personally think that coming into reporting season, the market will move to the upside and the short postion is at 14k down at this level. Whether we get to the 5800 level is another story. I'm going to try to manage this for him as he is away serving as of 5 days ago. Appreciate your thoughts,

Crez

 

[Crez]

That's correct TH.

Crez

 

[Crez]

Same account TH

Crez

 

[Trembling Hand]

Same account TH

Crez

Who is the broker?

That is just the crappiest hedge I have ever seen. Its not even a hedge. What he has effectively done is close out the position and entered into a $278,000 loan @ X % interest and also lent out $243,000 to receive X% interest minus a fair bit.

There is nothing to do but close out all positions and start again. Or close one side and take a directional bet on the market a coin toss

OR this is what I would do.

Reduce the position by 30% on both sides just to lighten up the emotions and move in the right direction. in a day or two think about the next action which will probably be the same as the last.

None of these things are recommendations just possible actions that could be taken.

A link of some relevance,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial

 

[MRC & Co]

A link of some relevance,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial

LOL.

I thought the link was gonna be on hedging!

I still don't understand your 'mates' position.

If he is long, net 5 contracts and wants to hedge, he should go short 5 contracts, until he figures out this 'exit plan', right?

Only two ways about it now, he has to realise his losses. That is the only conclusion he can come too after prolonging it though hedging.

If you are going to hedge, you still need some kind of directional bias to make a profit and never heard of a ratio spread, on the same contract, at the same exchange in the same expiration month. The net difference will be identical to what you wanted to achieve with only a directional bet with fewer contracts.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I don't know how you can be long and short the same contract in the same account.
Thats a funny old set-up.

 

[chops_a_must]

Might it be the December contract?

MRC... I don't think you could be both long and short the same contract. You'd have to think of it like a calendar spread if I'm thinking of it properly...