Trading Indicators Are Useless

[nizar]

Joseph.

Ive got to agree with Moggi here.
From what I see Moggi uses a combination of Elliot and Gann.
both time and price cycles along with price points and price projections both up and down.

I wont comment on Gann---BUT

If your going to MAXIMISE profits in the business you need to know.

(1) Where Price is at relative to that which your trading right now
(a) A corrective move?
(b) A consolidation ?
(c) A trend or impulsive move?

(2) Where Price is GOING
(3) When will it get there.
(4) When will price show me my analysis is correct---our incorrect.
This is the one most get have problem getting their head around as it appears to the un trained that the goal posts get moved during a trade!!

While it may appear Moggi is being egotistical (Its nice that its someone else and not me for a change),he's not.
He can and so can quite a few others I know---and I'm getting better at it.

Answer ALL of the above in the majority of charts, in his trading.

Just sit back and think for a minute.

WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO YOUR TRADING if you could do all of the above?? (1-4).

Radge put it best I feel,analysis is a continual
"Prove,Disprove,Prove,Disprove."

There is no point in even attempting to explain how he trades to the masses,or anyone who uses Elliot,VSA or for that matter GANN.
It takes years to master,even to gain a competency,Ive been at it spasmotically for 12 and a have a basic understanding.Even this is enough to improve my short term trading Dramatically.

Demonstrations will be seen as bewildering (No GANN traders I havent turned,not to GANN).to those with little or no understanding.

Its WELL worth the effort and if at anytime you consider trading as opposed to Investing--- serious amounts in the market (Say that which you would invest on a house) you NEED to know (1-4).

I like Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner.
Advanced GET for software and Tradeguider for VSA.
But other may differ.
Expensive--yes to most--but show me a decient business that wont consist of considerable investment in TIME and MONEY.

Its no ego or arrogence its just too hard to wrap up in a paragraph or 2

Thats how some of us can come across,but it can become tedious,Im sure you understand.

Great post tech. Thanks for taking the time.
I was gonna say its your best post but its probably not.
Thanks for the book title as well its next on the list.
Cheers.

 

[IFocus]

If your going to MAXIMISE profits in the business you need to know.

(1) Where Price is at relative to that which your trading right now
(a) A corrective move?
(b) A consolidation ?
(c) A trend or impulsive move?

(2) Where Price is GOING
(3) When will it get there.
(4) When will price show me my analysis is correct---our incorrect.
This is the one most get have problem getting their head around as it appears to the un trained that the goal posts get moved during a trade!!

Just sit back and think for a minute.

WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO YOUR TRADING if you could do all of the above?? (1-4).

Radge put it best I feel,analysis is a continual
"Prove,Disprove,Prove,Disprove."

Hmmm….. tech/a looks like Nicks influence is gaining ground, I aim to gain the same, the 4 points are I feel an excellent contribution to the forum and to any method that is used to trade markets.


Focus

 

[Magdoran]

Great post tech. Thanks for taking the time.
I was gonna say its your best post but its probably not.
Thanks for the book title as well its next on the list.
Cheers.

Nizar,


Just be aware that to use Robert Miner’s style of EW, you really need to use his proprietary software to do this. Unlike the Prechter style where all you need is a bar chart and volume in terms of software, so most good charting programs will do (where you are learning a key interpretation and slightly modified version of R.N.Elliott’s original work. Do not think you can grasp this in 5 minutes either).

Tech, (and I do think he is a gifted technical analyst of some note in his own right) has recently focused on the Miner/Fisher school of Elliott Wave theories, hence you should be aware of the Prechter school of thinking which historically brought EW back into vogue after decades of obscurity.

Prechter and Frosts book on EW is a must read in my view if you really want to learn EW. At least know what it is about even if you depart from it, or adopt a modified style.

Regards


Magdoran

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

tech/a

It takes years to master,even to gain a competency,Ive been at it spasmotically for 12 and a have a basic understanding.Even this is enough to improve my short term trading Dramatically.

...and you have only just recently realised the potential of short term trading tech.

Just an observation of how you have changed and no attack on you. Your comments are appreciated and valuable.

Snake

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake

I am not saying its the best, all I am is thats what it does.

Momentum is also great, I dont use it though.

All I know obv works for me and works well in seeing the way the markets moving.

So that's all that matters.

Ok Joseph.
I shall leave you to it. When you discover its weaknesses feel free to post.
Snake

 

[Kauri]

Nizar,


Just be aware that to use Robert Miner’s style of EW, you really need to use his proprietary software to do this. Unlike the Prechter style where all you need is a bar chart and volume in terms of software, so most good charting programs will do (where you are learning a key interpretation and slightly modified version of R.N.Elliott’s original work. Do not think you can grasp this in 5 minutes either).

Tech, (and I do think he is a gifted technical analyst of some note in his own right) has recently focused on the Miner/Fisher school of Elliott Wave theories, hence you should be aware of the Prechter school of thinking which historically brought EW back into vogue after decades of obscurity.

Prechter and Frosts book on EW is a must read in my view if you really want to learn EW. At least know what it is about even if you depart from it, or adopt a modified style.

Regards


Magdoran

Mag,
For Miners E/W any software with Fib tools is suitable, his proprietary software simplifies it, but is not essential.
Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Mag,
For Miners E/W any software with Fib tools is suitable, his proprietary software simplifies it, but is not essential.
Cheers

I have not studied Miners book in any depth, but for me it appears a little too mechanical in nature. Just depended what you want and the type of trader you are too. Also some key EW patterns in his book (and Nicks book too) appear not to be mentioned. Perhaps to try and simplify things, not sure?

 

[Kauri]

I have not studied Miners book in any depth, but for me it appears a little too mechanical in nature. Just depended what you want and the type of trader you are too. Also some key EW patterns in his book (and Nicks book too) appear not to be mentioned. Perhaps to try and simplify things, not sure?

Possibly, but regardless, proprietary software isn't needed.

 

[wavepicker]

Possibly, but regardless, proprietary software isn't needed.

He makes mention of time cycle projections, I would have thought that to
use this application it would have been easier to use his software??

 

[Kauri]

He makes mention of time cycle projections, I would have thought that to
use this application it would have been easier to use his software??

What tool does he use for making the time cycle projections??

 

[tech/a]

tech/a



...and you have only just recently realised the potential of short term trading tech.

Just an observation of how you have changed and no attack on you. Your comments are appreciated and valuable.

Snake

Snake.

Gunna be honest here.

I've not been in the position where I've needed or wanted to create a short term cashflow from short term trading. What happened was that I have a ticker on my desk,Marketcast and had watched often as I worked many many trades grow from 10c to 50c in a few weeks.
Id often have a dig at myself that I WATCHED another 200% move just go by.

So One day I saw another get going so I bought $20k worth and a few days later I sold it for $43k. So I simply applied the M/M rules I know and traded a few. No plan--No blueprint,just experience.
It became pretty obvious that there was some serious investment potential in short term trading. So unlike LONGTERM trading to me short term needs the 4 above addressed.
Id done Prechters course around 10 yrs ago and forgotten most.I've watched Wave and the other guy that took off (Forget who he was) and Radge on his journey. I want simple easy,software that will HELP and the ability to trade both ways and the answer to the 4 questions above.

Thats where I'm at. Im setting my trading platform method and blueprint up.
Why Serious investment in $$ terms demands serious business admin.
It will be part of the overall diversification of Investment---not THE chosen investment method.

IFOCUS

Ive watched Nick for over 10 yrs.
His influnce in not only Elliot wave---which is very minor pales in comparison to him switching on the light to WHAT makes your profitable in trading---regardless of HOW you choose to trade.

But I will say this.
Short term is distinctly different to longterm trading.
So is options to CFD's.

Fundamental to technical.

There are some EXCELLENT contributors who specialise in each individually or combined methods who pull no punches and add fantastic value to this forum.I have picked up much from many in all aspects that interest me.
Sincere thanks.

 

[Magdoran]

Mag,
For Miners E/W any software with Fib tools is suitable, his proprietary software simplifies it, but is not essential.
Cheers

Hello Kauri,


Thanks for your post, great to get your perspective on this subject, much appreciated.

From my understanding of what I’ve seen, the way this style is marketed, you are strongly recommended to use the software to utilise the key concepts of that style, are you saying this isn’t so? My understanding and impression was that there is a timing aspect to the style in Dynamic Trader, and that in practice the software is pretty much critical to this particular process.

Certainly, the core common tenants of EW are covered as in any reputable EW course, so there is no disagreement at this level, any reasonable Elliott course should deliver the ground floor “101”basics. However my understanding was that the key value proposition that is used to promote this approach is in the areas that this style is differentiating itself from other styles, namely the area that the software is presumably able to augment. Do you have a different perspective to this, and if so, would you mind outlining it in as much detail as possible please?

Since Nick identified Robert Miner as his source recently, I have been investigating it for comparison to the Fisher approach, and contrasting these with Prechter – I’m an inquisitive creature in my nature, and love to research and tinker with things and theories. Hence my knowledge of Miner is limited to my recent reading of some of his works, and the second hand impressions from those that have studied his works (probably not to the extent that Nick has).

What exactly is your knowledge of Fisher, Miner and Prechter Kauri? You seem to be an EW practitioner of sorts, but I noticed wavepicker had to outline the “1-2 1-2 1-2 nesting pattern” to you recently, hence to what extent do you think you can effectively compare and contrast the styles (especially Miner to Prechter)?

Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Snake.

Gunna be honest here.

I've not been in the position where I've needed or wanted to create a short term cashflow from short term trading. What happened was that I have a ticker on my desk,Marketcast and had watched often as I worked many many trades grow from 10c to 50c in a few weeks.
Id often have a dig at myself that I WATCHED another 200% move just go by.

So One day I saw another get going so I bought $20k worth and a few days later I sold it for $43k. So I simply applied the M/M rules I know and traded a few. No plan--No blueprint,just experience.
It became pretty obvious that there was some serious investment potential in short term trading. So unlike LONGTERM trading to me short term needs the 4 above addressed.
Id done Prechters course around 10 yrs ago and forgotten most.I've watched Wave and the other guy that took off (Forget who he was) and Radge on his journey. I want simple easy,software that will HELP and the ability to trade both ways and the answer to the 4 questions above.

Thats where I'm at. Im setting my trading platform method and blueprint up.
Why Serious investment in $$ terms demands serious business admin.
It will be part of the overall diversification of Investment---not THE chosen investment method.

IFOCUS

Ive watched Nick for over 10 yrs.
His influnce in not only Elliot wave---which is very minor pales in comparison to him switching on the light to WHAT makes your profitable in trading---regardless of HOW you choose to trade.

But I will say this.
Short term is distinctly different to longterm trading.
So is options to CFD's.

Fundamental to technical.

There are some EXCELLENT contributors who specialise in each individually or combined methods who pull no punches and add fantastic value to this forum.I have picked up much from many in all aspects that interest me.
Sincere thanks.

Hey Daffy,


Boy, what a convert you are! I remember when you were really sceptical on EW, and short term trading! Snake is right, what a magnificent journey you have been on!

And now you’re even looking into how to trade the short side. What a change! Well done, and I’m happy that there has been some payback for all the hard work you have put in over the last couple of years.

I must say when you made a couple of EW calls recently I almost fell off my chair, and what’s more they were really good calls too.

It’s funny, but it seems we are both determined to rattle everything that moves, aren’t we?


Kind Regards


Magdoran

 

[Bronte]

Yes, we totaly agree with Magdorans observations
Well done & a much improved duck

 

[Kauri]

Hi Magdoran,
A simple observation, Miners software is not needed to apply his version of E/W. When I first read his book I started off applying it with the built in tools available in both Metastock and Amibroker. Nothing more, nothing less.

"an EW practitioner of sorts"

I wouldn't, and in fact haven't ever, professed to be this, in fact in many of my posts I state that I am starting out with E/W and am on L Plates. Basic E/W is simply a tool I try to utilise alongside others in my "campaign", I attempt to use it to identify a trend, its position and direction, my position, and wether a trade taken has a good probability of being profitable. Simple I know, but in life I have found that complicated is not allways better. As stated in some of my posts I still get it wrong more often than I get it right, but hey didn't we all have to learn to crawl before we could walk??


Please post as a quote from any of my posts where I have even mentioned Fisher, Miner,or Prechter, let alone compared their styles.

Hello Kauri,
.........
What exactly is your knowledge of Fisher, Miner and Prechter Kauri? You seem to be an EW practitioner of sorts, but I noticed wavepicker had to outline the “1-2 1-2 1-2 nesting pattern” to you recently, hence to what extent do you think you can effectively compare and contrast the styles (especially Miner to Prechter)?

Regards


Magdoran

Regards

Kauri

 

[Magdoran]

Hi Magdoran,
A simple observation, Miners software is not needed to apply his version of E/W. When I first read his book I started off applying it with the built in tools available in both Metastock and Amibroker. Nothing more, nothing less.
I wouldn't, and in fact haven't ever, professed to be this, in fact in many of my posts I state that I am starting out with E/W and am on L Plates. Basic E/W is simply a tool I try to utilise alongside others in my "campaign", I attempt to use it to identify a trend, its position and direction, my position, and wether a trade taken has a good probability of being profitable. Simple I know, but in life I have found that complicated is not allways better. As stated in some of my posts I still get it wrong more often than I get it right, but hey didn't we all have to learn to crawl before we could walk??


Please post as a quote from any of my posts where I have even mentioned Fisher, Miner,or Prechter, let alone compared their styles.


Regards

Kauri

Hi Kauri,


Thanks for that. Like you, I am striving to expand my knowledge, feeling that I am at the brink feeling forwards.

This is such a multifaceted area that I am aware that there are many different viewpoints and perspectives. I believe even having a discourse when people don’t fully agree can be enlightening, and was seeking to get a feel for where you were coming from. So, you see, I’m always interested in peeling away the layers of the onion as you can imagine. This is in part how I learn and qualify ideas, including yours…

I was interested to see if you had looked at a range of sources and what your opinion was on the subject. Thankyou for outlining your present observations and I look forward to seeing how you progress. There are some great resources of knowledge on this site, and I’m sure you will in due course contribute more as you develop.



Kind Regards



Magdoran

 

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri,


Thanks for that. Like you, I am striving to expand my knowledge, feeling that I am at the brink feeling forwards.

This is such a multifaceted area that I am aware that there are many different viewpoints and perspectives. I believe even having a discourse when people don’t fully agree can be enlightening, and was seeking to get a feel for where you were coming from. So, you see, I’m always interested in peeling away the layers of the onion as you can imagine. This is in part how I learn and qualify ideas, including yours…

I was interested to see if you had looked at a range of sources and what your opinion was on the subject. Thankyou for outlining your present observations and I look forward to seeing how you progress. There are some great resources of knowledge on this site, and I’m sure you will in due course contribute more as you develop.



Kind Regards



Magdoran

Hello Magdoran,
There are indeed some great resources of knowledge on this site, in my short time here I have already learnt which contributers quietly add value and knowledge.
Thanks for your encouraging words.
regards
Kauri...

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake.

Gunna be honest here.

I've not been in the position where I've needed or wanted to create a short term cashflow from short term trading. What happened was that I have a ticker on my desk,Marketcast and had watched often as I worked many many trades grow from 10c to 50c in a few weeks.
Id often have a dig at myself that I WATCHED another 200% move just go by.

So One day I saw another get going so I bought $20k worth and a few days later I sold it for $43k. So I simply applied the M/M rules I know and traded a few. No plan--No blueprint,just experience.
It became pretty obvious that there was some serious investment potential in short term trading. So unlike LONGTERM trading to me short term needs the 4 above addressed.
Id done Prechters course around 10 yrs ago and forgotten most.I've watched Wave and the other guy that took off (Forget who he was) and Radge on his journey. I want simple easy,software that will HELP and the ability to trade both ways and the answer to the 4 questions above.

Thats where I'm at. Im setting my trading platform method and blueprint up.
Why Serious investment in $$ terms demands serious business admin.
It will be part of the overall diversification of Investment---not THE chosen investment method.

IFOCUS

Ive watched Nick for over 10 yrs.
His influnce in not only Elliot wave---which is very minor pales in comparison to him switching on the light to WHAT makes your profitable in trading---regardless of HOW you choose to trade.

But I will say this.
Short term is distinctly different to longterm trading.
So is options to CFD's.

Fundamental to technical.

There are some EXCELLENT contributors who specialise in each individually or combined methods who pull no punches and add fantastic value to this forum.I have picked up much from many in all aspects that interest me.
Sincere thanks.

Tech,
Thanks for the account of your journey.
What did you think of Prechter's material?
Snake

 

[wavepicker]

What tool does he use for making the time cycle projections??

Chapter 5 -Dynamic Time Projections. Have not read book in any depth but he has a long chapter on Time, most probably using some sort of Fibonacci time extensions. I would imagine it would be easier to accomplish this task using software that was scratch built for such a purpose. The the rest of the applications as you say maybe acomplished with a basic software fib tools.

Perhaps a dedicated EW software like AGet would have built into it to do this?

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Hey Daffy,


Boy, what a convert you are! I remember when you were really sceptical on EW, and short term trading! Snake is right, what a magnificent journey you have been on!

Not really Always had a great deal of respect for Elliot and Steidlmayer Stratagies.Just didnt use them---didnt need them as I traded/Trade longterm portfolio Systems trading.

And now you’re even looking into how to trade the short side. What a change! Well done, and I’m happy that there has been some payback for all the hard work you have put in over the last couple of years.

Trading short is a necessity in my view if your trading in shorter timeframes.
As for payback,if you mean that which the market has provided--I have no complaints, its NOT improvement I'm looking for its a new TYPE of trading.
Like when i went from Buying and holding Houses to Developing apartments.

I must say when you made a couple of EW calls recently I almost fell off my chair, and what’s more they were really good calls too.

Thanks Moggi your patronism doesnt go un noticed.

It’s funny, but it seems we are both determined to rattle everything that moves, aren’t we?

Thats not my intention.

SNAKE
Pretty heavy going from my memory of around 8 yrs ago.
I guess when you use it regularly its more foremost in your mind.
Its really when I saw consistent PRACTICAL use of Elliot that I realised that this was a serious analysis tool in the hands of trained exponents.