Tony Abbott for PM

[So_Cynical]

1 Vote Tony was a little weak on the 7.30 report tonight, he said stop the boats probably 4 times and it occurred to me for the first time that its a lie, the word stop imply's an end to something, a car stops moving, a game of football stops at the final siren....yet he cant stop the boats.

What i mean is he can and most likely will slow em down, maybe reduce the arrivals by 85 or 90% but he cant stop em, not 100% and other than that all he was promising was a return to nothing, Howard type certainty of nothing...its the same message the Libs have taken to the last 2 elections and lost.

Tony and his supporters (the hard right) seem to think that nothing is somehow a positive message, all his promises were about stopping things and "going back" he seems to think nostalgia is a positive message, some sort of election platform.

 

[Julia]

Tony and his supporters (the hard right) seem to think that nothing is somehow a positive message, all his promises were about stopping things and "going back" he seems to think nostalgia is a positive message, some sort of election platform.

Well, right now, given the chaos of the Labor government and their ever changing leadership and cabinet resignations, a bit of 'the past' would be pretty damn welcome.

And if Mr Abbott stopped 90% of the boats, as you suggest he might, I think that would be a huge improvement.

Focusing on Mr Abbott's interview on "7.30", it will probably be viewed through the prism of already firmly entrenched views. i.e. the rusted on Labor acolytes like SC, will only see the still somewhat less than fluent speech etc., whilst those of the Right will see a basically decent person representing a party which is not flailing about amongst its own internecine warfare and which perhaps offers a decent chance of providing some stability of government.

 

[sptrawler]

1 Vote Tony was a little weak on the 7.30 report tonight, he said stop the boats probably 4 times and it occurred to me for the first time that its a lie, the word stop imply's an end to something, a car stops moving, a game of football stops at the final siren....yet he cant stop the boats.

What i mean is he can and most likely will slow em down, maybe reduce the arrivals by 85 or 90% but he cant stop em, not 100% and other than that all he was promising was a return to nothing, Howard type certainty of nothing...its the same message the Libs have taken to the last 2 elections and lost.

Tony and his supporters (the hard right) seem to think that nothing is somehow a positive message, all his promises were about stopping things and "going back" he seems to think nostalgia is a positive message, some sort of election platform.

As opposed to Labors positive stuff up, which however you look at it, is a stuff up.lol

They're not suggesting how they will fix the stuff up, just that they've got one. Of which they're positive.

Jeez you're great for a chuckle.

 

[Macquack]

As opposed to Labors positive stuff up, which however you look at it, is a stuff up.lol

They're not suggesting how they will fix the stuff up, just that they've got one. Of which they're positive.

Jeez you're great for a chuckle.

Have a chuckle Trawler, how dare So_Cynical make a rational critique of your poster boy.

Read the thread title, it has nothing to do with the Labor party, it is about assessing Tony Abbott's performance as a potential PM. Show some objectivity, that you demand of others.

 

[sptrawler]

Have a chuckle Trawler, how dare So_Cynical make a rational critique of your poster boy.

Read the thread title, it has nothing to do with the Labor party, it is about assessing Tony Abbott's performance as a potential PM. Show some objectivity, that you demand of others.

Problem 1, Abbott isn't a poster boy, that is the last thing he is, if he was he would be a shoe in. So maybe you could apply the same critique of your own statements.

Problem 2, There is nothing rational about the statement.

What i mean is he can and most likely will slow em down, maybe reduce the arrivals by 85 or 90% but he cant stop em, not 100% and other than that all he was promising was a return to nothing, Howard type certainty of nothing...its the same message the Libs have taken to the last 2 elections and lost.

Give me an objective assesment of that.

 

[Macquack]

Times have moved on, EVERYBODY has internet access, ipads, iphones, GPS. Coming to Australia has become increasingly easier.

Returning to the Howard solution is not going to be as effective as it was.

 

[Zedd]

Off topic but this comment caught my eye -

... he seems to think nostalgia is a positive message, some sort of election platform.

Considering our ageing population using nostalgic rhetoric is arguably a sound political tactic.

 

[sptrawler]

Times have moved on, EVERYBODY have internet access, ipads, iphones, GPS. Coming to Australia has become increasingly easy.

Returning to the Howard solution is not going to be as effective as it was.

No I agree, it is easier to stop something before it gets out of control, rather than try and stop something that has become out of control. Which Rudd and Labor are responsible for.

How in some way, that can be held up, as an issue for Abbott, is beyond belief!!!!!
How the hell is Labor ever going to have any credibility on the issue, or have any chance of stopping it.

There is a huge push, at the moment, by the people smugglers on the expectation of a change of government.

So are you saying, it will make no difference which party is elected, or are you trying to excuse the $hit situation we find ourselves in.?

 

[So_Cynical]

And if Mr Abbott stopped 90% of the boats, as you suggest he might, I think that would be a huge improvement.

Sure but reducing the boats isn't "stopping" the boats is it? "ill stop the boats" is a simple message while "ill dramatically reduce the number of boat arrivals" is another message all together.

Focusing on Mr Abbott's interview on "7.30", it will probably be viewed through the prism of already firmly entrenched views. i.e. the rusted on Labor acolytes like SC, will only see the still somewhat less than fluent speech etc.,

Something else i noticed tonight for the first time is that Tony rarely ums and ahs like the pollies we are used to, Ums and ahs are a way to make noise while you think of an appropriate answer, Tony doesn't do that... instead he just pauses.

Doesn't change the fact that he is going into an election with a platform of rolling back progress and stopping the clock...stopping things rather than starting things, pretty bizarre to be going into an election with a platform of nothing new.

 

[sails]

...Returning to the Howard solution is not going to be as effective as it was.

Macquack, are you proud of the fact that labor have turned a small trickle into a flood?

Howard had the hole in the dyke of our borders under control. Labor re-opened the dyke and now the wall has crashed down. Of course it's going to be harder to fix!!

How you can gloat over this is beyond me. I care about my country and prefer a government that doesn't let important things such as our border control and debt get soooo far out of hand.

The libs have a proven history of far better management skills in these areas than this Rudd/Gillard/Rudd brand of labor have ever done. And Rudd seems to be simply more of the same as Gillard when it comes to policy. He's just a little easier to listen to but even that's wearing thin...

 

[sydboy007]

Has anyone stopped to consider the MAJOR reason there are more boats coming to Australis is BECAUSE there is a LOT more conflict around the world.

Howard was lucky to be in power when the global economy was on it's debt fueled growth spurt, most economies were doing very nicely, and the need / incentive to leave your home country was much lower.

The way TA is going on about the issue, he's going to make the Indonesians jack up, and from their point of view they've got far far more refugess - whether economic or not - and with the hardliners not facing SBY at the next election an easy out for them is to just encourage as many boats to head this way as possible.

We need to make free trade work so that poor countries can get themselves out of their poverty, which reduces the economic refugees and real ones because parents who believe their children will have a better life than them DON'T strap bombs onto themselves, and generally don't want to start or support wars. We need to overhaul the reguee system so that it does work and people don't become so desperate and disillusioned that they take other steps.

This is an issue with no easy answers, and lots of hard work required by many countruies. It also means rich countries have to stop proecting their innefficient industries, especially agriculture.

Tony is being very stupid saying he'll stop the boats. No he wont. When they keep comming, even if in reduced numbers, he's not achieved what he's pretty much promised he will do. He will have made most of SEA pi$$ed off with Australia and we will be seen as part of the problem and have little input in finding a solution.

Australia already has one of the alrgest humantarian resettlement programs in the world, based on a per capita basis. It would make more sense for Tony to push all OECD countries to have the same level as we do, but I suppose it's easier to pick on the poorer countries than try to push the rich countries to change their ways.

No I'm not some soft leftie, but if we game the global trading system so that most of what the poor countries produce is exlcuded fromt tarif reductions, and therefore limiting their ability to trade their way to higher economic development and living standards, then we have to face up to the fact we are contricuting to the problem just as much as war loards and corrupt governments are. A much freer global trade market WOULD stop the boats - eventually. It's just not an easy solution because there's too many powerful vested interests who would lose out by it.

 

[moXJO]

Sure but reducing the boats isn't "stopping" the boats is it? "ill stop the boats" is a simple message while "ill dramatically reduce the number of boat arrivals" is another message all together.



Something else i noticed tonight for the first time is that Tony rarely ums and ahs like the pollies we are used to, Ums and ahs are a way to make noise while you think of an appropriate answer, Tony doesn't do that... instead he just pauses.

Doesn't change the fact that he is going into an election with a platform of rolling back progress and stopping the clock...stopping things rather than starting things, pretty bizarre to be going into an election with a platform of nothing new.

I have to concede that I dont think Tony will win on what he has so far. There has been a shift in the publics thinking these last few years and even when the sports bets showed a labor thrashing it was still evident under the surface. Dont get me wrong I think Rudd is full of $hit and selling dreams that will become nightmares but he campaigns well enough to stave off defeat.

I also don't doubt Tony would stop the boats. The policy worked for a reason. But libs are having trouble selling any other message.
Indonesia is already pissed after the cattle debacle and Timor. Free trade only works when its not pick and choose which industry applies.

 

[Julia]

Considering our ageing population using nostalgic rhetoric is arguably a sound political tactic.

Interesting point. It seems, though, that the older part of the electorate isn't enough to make up for Mr Rudd's ability to swing younger voters his way.

From today's Australian following the latest Newspoll:

Since Mr Rudd was restored as Prime Minister just two weeks ago, Labor's primary vote has risen nine percentage points to 38 per cent to equal its level at the August 2010 election. In the same period, the Coalition's primary support has fallen six points to 42 per cent, below its election level.

And the preferred PM is even worse (can't find the actual figure right now).

If the trend continues, Mr Rudd is going to win the election for Labor. If he can do this, despite the gross dysfunction the Labor Party has demonstrated over the last three years, it's an unmistakeable indication of just how much many people dislike Mr Abbott. I'm not sure whether it's largely his lack of personable manner or more the lack of any really positive policies, ie too much reliance on "we'll go back to do everything John Howard did". Populations are usually forward thinking and perhaps Mr Abbott's reliance on suggesting the old team is back (which it isn't, of course) will be his undoing.

Kevin Rudd's glibness of manner seems to be cutting it out there. I'm surprised, but accept that it's so.

I don't like raising this possibility, but will the Coalition in fact be forced to reconsider whether Malcolm Turnbull should replace Tony Abbott, even at this late stage? It would be an act of bastardry toward Mr Abbott, but might save the Coalition in the same way that Rudd is apparently saving the Labor Party.

 

[basilio]

I don't like raising this possibility, but will the Coalition in fact be forced to reconsider whether Malcolm Turnbull should replace Tony Abbott, even at this late stage? It would be an act of bastardry toward Mr Abbott, but might save the Coalition in the same way that Rudd is apparently saving the Labor Party. Julia

That would make it interesting. In fact on most polls Malcolm Turnball would be worth at least 4-5% over Tony Abbott.

But... would Malcolm have the necessary support in the Liberal party ? Given the way small l liberals have been driven out of the party I wouldn't think so. And one of the most significant changes Malcolm Turnball would bring would be a realistic commitment to tacking climate change. I think that would create apoplexy amongst many of the current Lib/Nats.

Now lets say that Rudd continues to make inroads into the community. The polls start to look like 52-48 in favour of Labour. Maybe the Liberal back room pragmatists will hold their nose, swap leaders ( and give Abbott a nod that he can come back when the election is won). Of course Turnball could then do a Rudd and cement his position by changing the criteria for removing leaders.

What interesting times we live in ..

 

[sydboy007]

Could it be people see TA as a cheat / liar / hypocrite when they measure what he's said about Peter Slipper and then how he's been able to do similar jaunts at tax payer expense, only to be told pay the money back and please don't do it again. I mean seriously, he's not even been asked to justify himself. Was it beyong him to make the distinction between travel as a poltician on opposition bussiness, and travel on spruiking his new book.

Nothing worse than a person who talks the talk and never walks the walk. Polticians seem to perpetually do it.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Interesting point. It seems, though, that the older part of the electorate isn't enough to make up for Mr Rudd's ability to swing younger voters his way.

From today's Australian following the latest Newspoll:


And the preferred PM is even worse (can't find the actual figure right now).

If the trend continues, Mr Rudd is going to win the election for Labor. If he can do this, despite the gross dysfunction the Labor Party has demonstrated over the last three years, it's an unmistakeable indication of just how much many people dislike Mr Abbott. I'm not sure whether it's largely his lack of personable manner or more the lack of any really positive policies, ie too much reliance on "we'll go back to do everything John Howard did". Populations are usually forward thinking and perhaps Mr Abbott's reliance on suggesting the old team is back (which it isn't, of course) will be his undoing.

Kevin Rudd's glibness of manner seems to be cutting it out there. I'm surprised, but accept that it's so.

I don't like raising this possibility, but will the Coalition in fact be forced to reconsider whether Malcolm Turnbull should replace Tony Abbott, even at this late stage? It would be an act of bastardry toward Mr Abbott, but might save the Coalition in the same way that Rudd is apparently saving the Labor Party.

Julia , I think you have some very valid points above . As I have observed todays society seems to be dictated by the endless desire to be popular and many young people are constantly searching for their 15 minutes of fame. The uptake of personal public websites such as Facebook and Twitter are now proof of this.
Rudd is totally on his game via this new social media , he is able to get through to these younger voters .
It's unfortunate though that these younger voters are making a choice mainly based on popularity alone.
We will probably see another Labor term handed to them courtesy of Facebook and the younger voters .

 

[Calliope]

We will probably see another Labor term handed to them courtesy of Facebook and the younger voters .

I agree. As I said in another thread, our future may be decided by juveniles who are putty in the hands of the master manipulater Rudd. If Abbott tried this sort of nonsense it would go down like a lead balloon. Rudd does it and the kids say "he's one of us"!!!

 

[Some Dude]

I agree. As I said in another thread, our future may be decided by juveniles who are putty in the hands of the master manipulater Rudd.

This is why I have, and will keep, insisting that facts based discussions identifying how we arrive at our conclusions, instead of simply what we believe, is important to everyone no matter what your philosophical or political inclination. When we settle for perception or gut based decision making, especially when it accords with our own beliefs, it can easily swing the other way with no apparent logical validity.

The more we can enhance the process by which people arrive at their conclusions and formulate their opinions, no matter whether we agree with them or not, the less susceptible they are of being manipulated.

 

[qldfrog]

Julia , I think you have some very valid points above . As I have observed todays society seems to be dictated by the endless desire to be popular and many young people are constantly searching for their 15 minutes of fame. The uptake of personal public websites such as Facebook and Twitter are now proof of this.
Rudd is totally on his game via this new social media , he is able to get through to these younger voters .
It's unfortunate though that these younger voters are making a choice mainly based on popularity alone.
We will probably see another Labor term handed to them courtesy of Facebook and the younger voters .

Julia,
you are definitively right:
but the current liberals leaders are so anti MT that I do not give him much chance;
See the replies i got when i suggested that a few weeks ago here
I actually blame their attitude in the disaster Australia faces (debt + illegals) as they let Julia Gillard win (well kind of) last time and are still ready to do the same mistake again with Kevin Rudd by clinging to old preset ideas.

 

[Julia]

Could it be people see TA as a cheat / liar / hypocrite when they measure what he's said about Peter Slipper and then how he's been able to do similar jaunts at tax payer expense, only to be told pay the money back and please don't do it again. I mean seriously, he's not even been asked to justify himself. Was it beyong him to make the distinction between travel as a poltician on opposition bussiness, and travel on spruiking his new book.

I was really surprised to hear this yesterday. As you say, syd, he certainly talks the talk on honesty.
I cannot understand why anyone who is a candidate for the highest public office would consider it remotely worth the risk to be dishonest. My regard for him is definitely diminished as a result.

However, I still find the thought of another three years of Labor, and K. Rudd's pompous patronising profoundly depressing.