Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Tomorrow's trading on the ASX?

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Bailxtrader said:
Here's a weird but wonderful outlook of the ASX for the future. They seem pretty keen on it rising 21.8% by the end of 2024. Something I can't quite get my head around. and to me is highly unlikely. Heads up for obtrusion. I got no idea what they base it on?

View attachment 171114View attachment 171115

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ASX 200 FORECAST 2024, 2025, 2026-2028

ASX 200 forecast and predictions for 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. The latest ASX 200 prediction for each month: open, maximum, minimum and close levels. ASX index outlook for years.
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only speculation on my part but

maybe they forecast wage rises , that will partly flow into Super/ETFs especially now some funds are moving away from 'green-investing

the May bump this year may be 'vote buying policies' by governments local and international propping up investor confidence ( or so they hope )
'
 
The ASX 200 last week finished up 0.2 per cent over five days of trading to close at 7658.32, just 0.5 per cent below its record high achieved on 02 February.

So far, the strength of the earning seasons in both Australia and the US has surprised a number of market participants, helping to buoy equity markets. Of the roughly third of the ASX’s big companies to have reported results for the December half, 47 per cent have been above what the market expected, while 34 per cent have missed.

... and if the trend continues, things could edge up more. US closed on Monday for Presidents Day
 
Interesting US to open lower but ASX to open slightly higher, but may close lower I think?

The ASX200 is expected to open slightly higher on Monday, with ASX200 futures up +8 points or +0.105% at 7,607. The index gained +0.69% on Friday with the materials sector leading the rise to finish +1.50%, while the Australian dollar edged +0.09% higher.

In stocks on Friday, materials led the gains with BHP rising 1% to $45.61, while Mineral Resources rose 4.7% to $59.75, on the back of rising commodity prices. In earnings, QBE and IAG both fell 1.7% and 3.8% after missing analysts’ profit forecasts, while Pro Medicus fell 7.2%, extending its fall to 19.3% over two days.

In what is expected to be a busy week in terms of earnings for the ASX, Monday will see Ampol and Cochlear announce their latest earnings report, with BHP on Tuesday and Rio Tinto on Wednesday. To round off the week, investors will be looking at Pilbara Minerals and Qantas who will announce on Thursday.

In local economic data this week, investors will be looking at the latest RBA meeting minutes scheduled to be released tomorrow, with Westpac’s leading index and wage prices growth on Wednesday, with the latest PMI data to round off the week.

Oil prices were higher at the close, with WTI crude and Brent up +1.49% and +0.74% to US$79.19 and US$83.47 a barrel. Oil traders will be keeping a close eye on oil prices at the open after the weekend saw tensions escalate in the Middle East. Iron ore futures in Singapore rose +1.41% on Friday to US$131.27 and are -0.51% lower this morning, while copper rose +2.14%. Gold was +0.46% higher at US$2.013.59 an oz with silver +2.17% higher, while Bitcoin rose +1.26% on Friday and edged -0.33% lower over the weekend to finish at 51,843.56.
 
Hers a market note from earlier this morning. I notice the ASX has came down since lunch and expect this to be a sign the ASX tide is turning. As the US remains lower

Australian shares are set to open higher, after a turbulent week on Wall Street.
ASX futures were up 0.1% or 8 points as of 8:30am on Monday, suggesting a higher open.
U.S. stocks fell to close out a choppy week of trading after the producer price index came in stronger than expected.
DJIA dropped 145 points to 38627, the S&P 500 lost 0.5% to 5005 and the Nasdaq slid independent research, ratings & tools for individual investors.

In commodity markets, Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to US$83.47 a barrel, while gold was up 0.5% to US$2,013.59.
In local bond markets, the yield on Australian 2 Year government bonds was up at 3.86% while the 10 Year yield was also up at 4.19%. US Treasury notes were up, with the 2 Year yield at 4.64% and the 10 Year yield at 4.28%.
The Australian dollar hit 65.30 US cents. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the US dollar against 16 other currencies, was down at 98.56.
 
US equities were unchanged on Monday as markets were closed for Presidents Day, while European stocks approach all time highs.

I expect the ASX to close lower?

The ASX200 is expected to open mostly unchanged on Tuesday, with ASX200 futures up +1 point or +0.013% at 7,609. The index edged +0.09% higher on Monday with the real estate, health care, and information technology sectors sliding -2.63%, -1.03%, and -1.09% respectively, while the Australian dollar rose +0.14% higher.

In stocks on Monday, poor earnings data from the real estate sector saw Lendlease slip 14% to $6.46, with GPT Group falling 4.6% to $4.34. While iron prices slipped more than 3% in Singapore following an underwhelming opening in Chinese markets after the Lunar New Year break, with iron miners BHP and Rio Tinto up +0.94% and +1.55%.

In local economic data this week, investors will be hoping to get a better understanding of the RBA’s path for rate cuts with the latest RBA meeting minutes scheduled to be released at 11:30. In earnings, investors will be focusing on the latest report for BHP, with markets estimating an earnings per share of $1.288 and a revenue of 27.452 billion.

Oil prices were mixed at the close, as tensions in the Middle East were offset by signs of weakening demand, with WTI crude up +0.13% to US$79.29 a barrel and Brent down -0.16% to US$83.34 a barrel. Iron ore futures in Singapore fell -2.96% on Monday to US$127.39 and are -0.93% lower this morning, while copper fell -0.66%. Gold was +0.18% higher at US$2.017.21 an oz with silver -1.70% lower, while Bitcoin fell -0.03% on Monday to 51,856.26.
 
US equities were lower on Tuesday as the technology sector weighed down returns ahead of Nvidia’s latest earnings report, while investors await the latest FOMC

The ASX200 is expected to open lower on Wednesday, with ASX200 futures down -21 basis points or -0.276% at 7,584. The index edged -0.08% lower on Tuesday, with the materials sector sliding -1.09% on the back of falling iron ore prices, while the Australian dollar rose +0.15% higher.

In stocks on Tuesday, a fall in iron ore prices in China and Singapore saw Rio Tinto and South32 fall -2.2% and -3.4%, while BHP slid -1.1% on the back of an underwhelming earnings report. In financials, ANZ dropped 2.2% after the Australian Competition Tribunal approved its $4.9 billion takeover of Suncorp’s banking arm, with Suncorp rising 6% on the back of the deal.

In local economic data, Tuesday saw the release of the latest RBA meeting minutes, where the RBA considered raising rates by 25 basis points as the central bank deemed inflation would take “some time” to return to the 2-3% target. Investors will now be shifting their focus to the latest Westpac leading index data for January, with investors hoping to see an improvement on the prior month's reading. Wednesday will also see the latest wage price index data, with markets expecting an increase of 4.1%.

Oil prices were lower at the close, as weakening demand continues to weigh on prices, with WTI crude and Brent down -1.66% and -1.29% to US$77.15 and US$82.48 a barrel. Iron ore futures in Singapore fell -5.15% on Tuesday to US$122.83 and are -1.10% lower this morning, while copper rose +0.52%. Gold was +0.36% higher at US$2.024.47 an oz with silver -0.12% lower, while Bitcoin edged +0.47% on Tuesday to 52,149.51.
 
The ASX200 is expected to open lower on Thursday, with ASX200 futures down -19 basis points or -0.251% at 7,542. The index closed -0.66% lower on Wednesday, as mixed earnings saw consumer staples slide -4.26% and information technology up +2.23, while the Australian dollar was relatively unchanged at -0.06%

In stocks on Wednesday, information technology was propped up by Wisetech, with the software provider rising 11.2% after posting a 5% increase in net profit to $118.2 million, while Woolworths weighed down consumer staples, falling -4.3% following the announcement that CEO, Brad Banducci, was stepping down. Mining stocks were also weaker after concerns about demand from Chinese steelmakers pushed iron ore prices lower, with BHP down 2.4% and Rio Tinto falling 1.8%, after announcing its lowest net profit in five years after the market close.

In local economic data, Wednesday saw the release of the latest Westpac leading data for January, with the report showing a decrease on the prior month, while the latest wage price data, showed wages rose mostly in line with expectations at 0.9% over the quarter and 4.2% on an annualised basis. Investors will now shift their focus to the latest PMI data scheduled to be released at 09:00, with investors aiming for an improvement on the previous month's reading.

Oil prices were higher at the close, with WTI crude and Brent up +1.26% and +0.94% to US$78.01 and US$83.12 a barrel. Iron ore futures in Singapore fell -1.46% on Wednesday to US$119.07 and are +0.57% higher this morning, while copper rose +0.34%. Gold was relatively unchanged up +0.01% at US$2.024 an oz with silver -0.56% lower, while Bitcoin was -1.42% lower on Wednesday to 51,298.76.
 
US equities were higher on Thursday on the back of Nvidia’s latest earnings exceeding analyst expectations, while key economic data came in weaker than expected and Fed officials continued to add commentary.

The ASX200 is expected to open higher on Friday, with ASX200 futures up +32 basis points or +0.423% at 7,542. The index was relatively unchanged on Wednesday closing +0.04% higher, led by the utilities sector which finished +2.01% higher, while the Australian dollar was relatively unchanged at +0.09%.

In stocks on Thursday, Qantas fell 6.8% on the back of its pre-tax profits falling 12.8%, while Medibank’s shares were 5.4% lower after its guidance for premium growth in 2024 missed the market’s expectations. In materials, Pilbara Minerals half-year profits fell 82% as lower lithium prices weighed on the mining giant, while Fortescue’s shares rose 2.1% after increasing their interim dividend by 44% to $1.08 per share on a strong iron ore price for the half year. To see more on our analysis of Fortescue click here.

In local economic data, Thursday saw the release of the latest PMI data, with the report showing an increase on the previous month's reading.

1708641100052.png

Oil prices were higher at the close, as US WTI crude stockpiles rose below market expectations of 3750k at 3514k. WTI crude and Brent rose +0.68% and +0.60% to US$78.44 and US$83.53 a barrel. Iron ore futures in Singapore rose +0.51% on Thursday to US$120.95 and are +1.06% higher this morning, while copper rose +0.50%. Gold was relatively unchanged down -0.09% at US$2.024.13 an oz with silver -0.59% lower, while Bitcoin was +0.40% higher on Thursday to 51,596.61.
 
Interesting next week to if the ASX can congour the mountain in the for-seen future, or will the bear take over. Markets in general around the world are flying high?

The risk-on rally across on Thursday helped the ASX 200 extend its gains overnight. The 4-hour chart shows a strong rally from the 200-day EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci level, although a small shooting star candle formed alongside an RSI divergence (after it has reached overbought). This is nothing major and could simply mean a small retracement or period of consolidation.

Ultimately any dips towards the 50-bar EMA or 7624.7 support level could be favourable for bears, but if prices simply extend their lead at the open then a move for 7700 could be on the cards. At which point we’ll find out whether it has the momentum to break to a new record high or retreat once more from that pivotal level.

1708673499047.png
 

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