tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
TNY - Tinybeans Group
- Thread starter System
- Start date
-
- Tags
- tinybeans group tny
Sourced from a respected technical analyst on HotCopper
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Shows the quality of HC
https://tinybeans.com/documents/research-reports/KPG Capital - TNY Research - April 2019.pdf
(KPG Capital - $2.56 AUD price target.)
Verce's Ultimate Guide to TNY
I've been tracking the rollout and uptake of the app each time it is updated on iOS (which is quite frequently) - and while it's clear they are doing very well in the US - this is really only the beginning of their market penetration.
There is a high volume of traffic through the website and the app and it has all been via word of mouth and positive reviews (which is why they are closing revenue contracts with companies like Lego, Macmillan Books, Pottery Barn, Scholastic, Canon, Walt Disney, Walmart and Nike).
Chairman John Dougall said in his last letter to shareholders that he has personally taken several technologies "from zero to over $100,000,000 per annum. I believe that the Tinybeans offering has global potential."
I'm inclined to agree with his assessment of TNY’s global potential just by looking at the stats. Here's a cut from earlier this year (TNY in blue is compared to its next closest competitor Lifecake in red, who was actually acquired by Canon – yes taken over by the multi-billion dollar Japanese printer company Canon). Lifecake did not have advanced capabilities such as machine learning or big data analysis to generate unique insights into the millennial demographic.
During my research I found out that Google (yes, that Google) offer Tinybeans Premium Subscriptions for free for the first year as a perk to their US employees. I thought that was pretty neat. More recently, a former CEO of Yahoo and senior executive at Google has raved about the Tinybeans app in an interview.
Now keep in mind TNY haven't even officially begun to look at countries outside the United States - "our current focus is on the 35 million young families in the USA. We’ll look at other markets once we capitalise on the significant potential of the US" - but it's already gaining viral traction in other nations due to the unique privacy proposition and decline of Facebook.
Turns out that privacy is important – especially when it comes to family. Tinybeans empowers people with legitimate concerns about entities such as Facebook to take back ownership of their data. Family is arguably the most important thing in our human lives, so it naturally follows that people take this seriously.
I've previously said that we are witnessing a momentous shift from traditional social media monopolies to more trustworthy niche providers (such as Tinybeans). Similar to how we are also witnessing trust shift from the 'Big Four' banks, VISA & Mastercard to new consumer-friendly brands and services such as Afterpay.
People overestimate the power and agility of a generic platform like Facebook, which has already suffered reputational and brand damage. Millennial parents are rightfully concerned about privacy, and nobody wants to overshare on a non-secure network. The user reviews of TNY speak for themselves.
Is there evidence of this? Look at the Net Promoter Scores so far. This is the best tool we have when it comes to social media to gauge the loyalty towards and popularity of a platform.
Tinybeans has a Net Promoter Score of +80.
What does Facebook have? I’m glad you asked… MINUS 21
Now some of you are probably thinking – how long can people possibly keep using this app? Well, there are ~131 million children born each year and plenty more parents to come in the future. TNY has very high retention rates for users compared to social media platform averages. User acquisition has predominantly been through word of mouth referrals.
There is potential and scope to expand the platform to focus not just on infants – but tracking the entire journey of the early life of a child.
Once a customer signs up, the brand loyalty is very high. Over 90% of Tinybeans members would purchase a product or service that Tinybeans recommends. It has the first touch of the millennial parent demographic (much like Afterpay) and these people are just coming into their prime income-earning years. That means more dollars across the board. The 'special event' sales for brands reminds me of the Afterpay "Afteryay Day" kind of deal. Here is an example of their e-commerce potential.
The new content platform combined with machine learning that was just announced further validates TNY as the number one repository in the world for parents and families to consume content (and targeted advertising). In the course of my research, it was readily apparent that 'big data' and advanced data analytics are what drive takeovers in the tech space. Tinybeans are now building out their competitive moat, and this already looks to be very lucrative - "powerful results" already.
Combine this with the global content platform they launched on 26/04/19, and it's a winning formula. Competitors will find it hard to break into this space.
At ~45 million AUD market cap, this is still very much undervalued. Tech company valuations work a bit differently to conventional stocks most people are used to. Social media networks, in particular, derive their value from the size of the network. Given the highly targeted nature of the app to the lucrative millenial parent demographic, the value of each user is probably significantly higher than comparative generic social media companies.
Metcalfes Law would dictate that if the number of users in a network doubles (which it has after reaching 3 million users since IPO) then the value of said network actually goes up by quadruple. Therefore, TNY should be trading at four times its 2017 valuation - or a price target of around $4 AUD per share.
Even if you ignore this, when you look at other social media companies, TNY remains severely undervalued and a very compelling investment proposition. I note with interest that Pinterest just IPO'd in the United States @ 10 billion USD. Need I say more?
Most people seem to overlook that TNY since IPO has tripled the users; built out a world-class team; reduced costs across the board; signed new partners like Disney and Lego; increased revenues; and accumulated over 40,000 5-star ratings on the App Store.
Now imagine if they switched on their marketing efforts for mainland Europe or Asia? That growth would be HUGE. And I dare say families in Europe and Asia are at least as invested - if not more so - in recording and maintaining a family journal that functions as a secure, digital keepsake. A digital keepsake that will never fade away like an old photo book. Do not underestimate the tremendous power of keeping a family history and heritage. It's part of the human experience.
Finally, TNY have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to turning operating cash flow positive during calendar year 2019 and appear very much on track to achieve this based on the last few quarterlies.
You would be a fool to sell at this current inflection point - just as the company is about to reach critical mass and on the cusp of profitability. Shares will be challenging to acquire from here on out with the Top 20 holding 75% of the 33 million share on issue.
- Joined
- 24 December 2005
- Posts
- 2,601
- Reactions
- 2,065
Here you go verce, nice rising Twiggs Weekly Money Flow. TNY is above the resistance line of its all time high. Now it has changed from a red resistance line to a green support line. This is seen as being into 'Blue Sky' territory, meaning there are no more overhead resistance lines to overcome.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
About the same as yesterday
Relax.
Relax.
Looks like we have our first institutional investor.
https://www.dmxam.com.au/files/DMXCP Investor Presentation April 2019.pdf
Slide 8:
Tinybeans Group Limited (TNY): fast growing, family photo sharing platform, with increasing global profile
https://www.dmxam.com.au/files/DMXCP Investor Presentation April 2019.pdf
Slide 8:
Tinybeans Group Limited (TNY): fast growing, family photo sharing platform, with increasing global profile
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Brutal
galumay
learner
- Joined
- 17 September 2011
- Posts
- 3,359
- Reactions
- 2,167
Yep, I posted a link a page or two ago after they took a 'tiny' position. They are not the only small private fund to have a punt, but I think the first to go public.
Latest Highlights from the transcript of the investor call:
Machine Learning
In terms of the machine learning, this is something we announced only this week. It allows us to create this new offering and analyze all this data that we have and provide insights around it. The data is anonymized and it's never going to affect the trust of our users and the power is in the aggregated insights around that. It doesn't affect our users, it doesn't affect their privacy, and nothing will ever be shared personally to anyone external. It's all about this aggregated view on the data at a rolled-up level.
We can understand based on what the data is telling us when a child starts to transition to solids. And then I started to go to package goods and see how old they are and the difference of the east coast to the west coast of Australia to the UK. It's still fairly new and we have a long way to go. We see this developing and growing, and we see the revenue opportunity into FY20.
Cashflow, Marketing & Scaling Up
Growing the revenue per active user is going to continue to be a priority. Having said that, we're planning out FY20 and we're definitely thinking getting to cashflow breakeven is going to give us a chance to really accelerate things because our unit economics, like we shared of CAC to LTV, is really appealing.
The other thing is this content platform which will also bring in new users that won’t require a user to add a photo to sign up, you could do it that way and look at other services the company provides and sign up without having to be able to add photos.
As we plan FY20, as the revenue grows and accelerates, especially into the holiday season this year, that the Q4 calendar is going to be substantial for us. It's going to be on what we've done today and definitely there will be more money aside for marketing, especially as we shared a CAC to LTV metrics.
We know as parents we spend a huge amount on our children, and families spend huge amounts on families. We want to be able to help them access these services, content and products on our platform. We think the lifetime customer value could be hundreds if not thousands of dollars. I think it will take us a while, but it could be pretty significant, as with all this rich data, we can then be able to pre-empt and offer things, whether it's buying something or signing up to a babysitting service. We see the services turning on, enabling revenue growth, and a deeper engagement with the user to be able to grow the per user revenue.
Once you tell other big brands that Lego is working with you, they scratch their heads and they go, well, if they're working with you when your audience is only this large, you clearly offer a very high value prop.
Obviously, it's a wonderful time for the company. It's an exciting growth stage and a great space in terms of family, a huge market opportunity for us. The revenues are really growing quarter on quarter and clearly so is the cashflow. That is good for us internally, as we’re just planning out next year and the next three years for that matter. For us it's all about scaling and accelerating
Machine Learning
In terms of the machine learning, this is something we announced only this week. It allows us to create this new offering and analyze all this data that we have and provide insights around it. The data is anonymized and it's never going to affect the trust of our users and the power is in the aggregated insights around that. It doesn't affect our users, it doesn't affect their privacy, and nothing will ever be shared personally to anyone external. It's all about this aggregated view on the data at a rolled-up level.
We can understand based on what the data is telling us when a child starts to transition to solids. And then I started to go to package goods and see how old they are and the difference of the east coast to the west coast of Australia to the UK. It's still fairly new and we have a long way to go. We see this developing and growing, and we see the revenue opportunity into FY20.
Cashflow, Marketing & Scaling Up
Growing the revenue per active user is going to continue to be a priority. Having said that, we're planning out FY20 and we're definitely thinking getting to cashflow breakeven is going to give us a chance to really accelerate things because our unit economics, like we shared of CAC to LTV, is really appealing.
The other thing is this content platform which will also bring in new users that won’t require a user to add a photo to sign up, you could do it that way and look at other services the company provides and sign up without having to be able to add photos.
As we plan FY20, as the revenue grows and accelerates, especially into the holiday season this year, that the Q4 calendar is going to be substantial for us. It's going to be on what we've done today and definitely there will be more money aside for marketing, especially as we shared a CAC to LTV metrics.
We know as parents we spend a huge amount on our children, and families spend huge amounts on families. We want to be able to help them access these services, content and products on our platform. We think the lifetime customer value could be hundreds if not thousands of dollars. I think it will take us a while, but it could be pretty significant, as with all this rich data, we can then be able to pre-empt and offer things, whether it's buying something or signing up to a babysitting service. We see the services turning on, enabling revenue growth, and a deeper engagement with the user to be able to grow the per user revenue.
Once you tell other big brands that Lego is working with you, they scratch their heads and they go, well, if they're working with you when your audience is only this large, you clearly offer a very high value prop.
Obviously, it's a wonderful time for the company. It's an exciting growth stage and a great space in terms of family, a huge market opportunity for us. The revenues are really growing quarter on quarter and clearly so is the cashflow. That is good for us internally, as we’re just planning out next year and the next three years for that matter. For us it's all about scaling and accelerating
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Stopped out of TNY at B/E.
I'm sorry - looks like you got shaken out by professional accumulators targeting stop losses. That's the problem with an illiquid stock with so few shares on issue - traders are going to get burned. I saw the same thing happen with PO3.
At least it was only 3k.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
- Joined
- 14 October 2004
- Posts
- 20,400
- Reactions
- 6,317
Devastated
- Joined
- 17 August 2006
- Posts
- 7,739
- Reactions
- 8,332
Interestingly my Chart from last Thursday makes more sense today ….. The Range nominated was $1.18-$1.29 …… which were todays Low/High ….
It finished at the top of that Range today so still treading water ok.
Personally expecting a ranging period in the short term, but also expect if/when it breaks higher, it will do it with a gap above $1.40
If it happens to retest the $1.13 (which is possible), longer term holders will want to see some Demand/Volume around that area for confirmation.
Don't hold so all just mindless meanderings from me
….. but so far its behaving as expectedLast Thursday musings/chart below:-
me too (out i mean)
that ann the other day made me feel dumb as i do not understand whatever it was tryin to tell me with all that fancy technical talk - tinybeans no longer made me laugh. it just made me feel dumb so it had to go.
viva weetbix
viva penis