Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TNY - Tinybeans Group

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galumay said:
Honestly, I think that just shows how emotionally invested you are in the narrative. A couple of investors I know who had dipped their toes in TNY, sold out today as soon as they saw the announcement. They saw it as reflecting very poorly on management and filled with hyped up catch phrases of an advertising company trying to pivot.
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Agree to disagree here.
 
verce said:
When I read this line, I was instantly convinced of at least a 100 million AUD market cap fair valuation:
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Honestly, thats insane, (not to say it wont get to that sort of share price), a share price of around $3 would imply earnings of around $10m.
 
galumay said:
Honestly, thats insane, (not to say it wont get to that sort of share price), a share price of around $3 would imply earnings of around $10m.
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How do you explain something like YOJ or NUH then?

Tech company valuations work differently. I'm sorry, that's just the way it is. Uber is still making a loss, for example.
 
verce said:
Tech company valuations work differently.
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LOL!! The old "its different this time" trope.

Well lets see, I dont think it is, sooner or later there is no other valuation than the sum of your future cash flows discounted back to present value. When the hype and speculation ends, thats what drives investment pricing.

Uber is a terrible example, precisely because its still making a massive loss, with no path to profitability and a broken business model. If you think its share price somehow reflects its value then buy it, I would be looking to short it if anything.

Tech company valuations dont work differently, its just that in the late stage of a long bull market, fuelled by the success of a few of these type of businesses, there has been a structural disconnection between price and value by a market fuelled with FOMO and hype.

No doubt higher multiples are warranted for tech companies with very low capital costs and very fast growth, but a lot of the prices imply infinite growth and fixed, high margins into the distant future with perfect execution by management at every step - thats a fantasy future.

As I said earlier, its not improbable in this market that TNY could run up to $3 in price, but to suggest it is "fair valuation" requires some quantifiable valuation to support your claim. What is the return on invested capital, or earnings or free cash flow that would make it "fair value" at $3? Its clearly not "fair value" at $1 let alone $2 or $3.

If what you really mean is that you think the share price could be $3 regardless of valuation metrics, then honestly, you should just say so.

I would actually agree with you, there is a possibility that the price will be $3. The 'greater fool' theory has supported plenty of high prices for all sorts of assets over the history of markets.

I hope for your sake the price does keep going up and you get out at some point and make a lot of money, your level of conviction in the narrative deserves that at least!
 
I can tell I’m not going to change your mind on anything. It is what it is. I see this as an investable proposition. Let’s see how the rest of the year unfolds. They could get to cashflow positive soon.
 
verce said:
I can tell I’m not going to change your mind on anything
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I am not trying to change yours, just making some friendly challenges to your claims!

I will leave you in peace with TNY, I think we have probably created enough words for anyone interested in the business to keep them occupied for an hour or two!

I should bugger off and spend more time talking about businesses I am actually interested in!
 
Good morning verce, I read the notice from yesterday and perhaps I am misreading it but it disquieted me. It read like there is going to be an AI trawling everyone's actions, buying habits and activities. They say everyone's' information is private, perhaps identifying elements of the people are private but certainly not what is on their space. They are going to sell the info to big business as I understand it. I had planned to buy this for my daughter when she has her children but I have gone off the idea now, until I hear further about TNY.

If I had bought in earlier, I think I would take profits now. As Peter2 says, you can always buy back in if you are wrong.

The chart saw a slide back below the short term rising support line coming from the cross at the symmetrical point. It may rise up again, it is still above the 98c support line I identified on the 5 minute chart a number of posts back now!

Call it a gut feeling but profits in the bank can be a sweet thing. However I could be very wrong as I always say, so do your own assessments folks!

Edit: I meant to add the Twiggs money flow is falling and the number of buyers to sellers has closed a bit 29 buyers to 24 sellers.
tny13.5.19.png
 
tech/a said:
Never under estimate luck.
I have made more money and found
more happiness from pure luck
than ANYTHING ELSE.

But I know EXACTLY what to do when I find luck or it finds me.
(1) Leverage it and
(2) Compound it.

I also know exactly what to do if my luck runs out.
(1) Minimize loss.
(2) Make changes.

NEVER in BOTH cases do ----------- NOTHING!

So lets have a look at the analysis as of right now.

View attachment 94291
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`

I've decided to (If the setup arises) to put some skin in the game.
This chart mark up tells me what I'm looking for to buy in.
 
If Life 360 can IPO just recently at 700 million market cap with a 2018 net loss of around 20 million, then TNY which is nearly cashflow positive can get to 100m market cap.

That is triple the current price so around $3.
 
For what its worth …… I like the chart (especially after today) …… I personally don't trade breakouts and generally only trade penny Stocks (but I always like seeing other Punters make a few bob if possible;))

With that in mind, if this behaves and nudges back above $1.10 … I would expect $1.40 within a shortish time frame ….

That assessment is based on my super secret algorithmic percentage adjusted indicator which is at least 99% accurate and has never lost in the last 5 years:p ……. (sorry, correction …. the last 5 weeks:rolleyes:) … apart from that 1 (maybe 2) bad trades I made last week, so maybe 5 days:D
 
I can only imagine that Thursday brings positive news and things are going better than expected - otherwise there would be no need to suddenly host a conference call.
 
Goodness how good does it feel to be wrong?! :D
Clearly the market liked what it saw in the notice, FA is not my strong point as I may have mentioned before.....What do we see on the chart today?
Well TNY is getting a bit older so I can do an End of Day chart, my fave.

I see what is generally regarded as a bearish Descending Triangle. Will it be bearish for TNY or simply the first tread on the 'stairway to heaven'! :happy:

Why do I think verce is going to knock me off the top spot in the comp in the very near future? :p

tny 14.5.19.png


 
barney said:
For what its worth …… I like the chart.
With that in mind, if this behaves and nudges back above $1.10 … I would expect $1.40 within a shortish time frame …. That assessment is based on my super secret algorithmic percentage adjusted indicator
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Almost:p ….. High of $1.385 today …. Who says technical analysis doesn't work:D
 
Now, more importantly … about that booze up @verce …… I like Bourbon and coke (diet of course … I'm watching my weight … increase:eek::D ….

Well done ….You should be feeling pretty chuffed;)
 
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