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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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Five wave pattern is now on the limit low for Wave 4, a close below 5.07 and this pattern will be invalid.
I Guess this is now invalid.... Is that good or bad chart wise?

As a customer I have never been more dissatisfied and if this recent experience is any guide to the future getting out now would be a wise idea.
 
Will have a look at the updates when I get to the computer later.
Likely now to resume its downward trend however I think it has a dividend coming up which may play havoc with the pattern for a while.

I have been a customer for over eight years, nearly got done with a new phone and plan until I saw that Optus had a much better plan.
I also gave them up on home phone line, I packaged that with broadband plan through Internode for over $30 month saving by combing them.

They are being overrun by better deals and customer service in every area that I am aware of.
 
UMike said:
Five wave pattern is now on the limit low for Wave 4, a close below 5.07 and this pattern will be invalid.
I Guess this is now invalid.... Is that good or bad chart wise?
Click to expand...

Not sure when they are paying a dividend, usually in March each year. Maybe someone can update me on this.

It is likely that the recent pattern since mid Nov is just a corrective to the downward trend since July.
If this is the case then around $5.17 would be the first test of the recent direction of the last week or so. Should it continue up through that then around $5.35 would be the next resistance and a break up through that would be a new trend direction.

A potential dividend could distort this in the short term.

Basically, TLS is in a downtrend and has experienced a corrective pattern which (imo) is unlikely to last and until it either breaks up through $5.30 or down through $5.00 its a heads or tails prospect.

(click to expand)
 
Here is my latest analysis on Telstra.

As we move closer to the Dividend date 01/03/2017 I will be looking for the stock to move closer towards the previous high of $5.29.

If we get a good result we may break this level at which point I would be looking at the stock to move towards $5.48 to $5.57 which is 100% from the extension of the low $4.70,$5.29 and $4.99 as shown on the chart.

If the Elliot Wave pattern can hold its shape then a move higher to 162% level of $5.94 is a possibility but we are a long way from that yet.

Should the results not be favorable then a reversal and continuation of the longer term Wave C will come back into play again and we may see a move lower back towards $4.60 which is the 50% level of the All Time High which is a very significant support level and really needs to hold here otherwise the stock would be in serious trouble..

Interesting few weeks coming up...Happy trading everyone...


 
I see why the slide happened now.....

Telstra's first-half profit has dropped 14.4 per cent to $1.79 billion, largely due to the loss of earnings that followed the sale of its stake in a Chinese car website and stiff competition at home.

Net profit for the six months to December 31 dropped from $2.09 billion in the same period a year earlier as revenue fell 6.4 per cent to $12.8 billion.

Interim dividend was flat at 15.5 cents a share, fully franked.
 

That is a really good dividend, when you consider they only earned 14.8 cents a share, I wonder how long they can keep that dividend for?
 
Porper said:
The weekly chart shows the better patterns.

Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.

Disclosure: I am short.View attachment 69965
Click to expand...

Always good to get your view using the wave principle.

On the weekly chart a Wave C was a view I also agree with.
On the Monthly chart I have it still marked as a wave 2

I had shorted the stock earlier on its move down to $4.70 which was just above the 50% level of the All time high at $4.60.

Once we started moving back I took the position that it may have completed.
Maybe not after today.

With the result just posted the $4.60 will be a level I will keep an eye on now .

If it breaks here then the move to $4.15 looks on the cards.

Time will tell though....
 

The interesting aspect of the daily chart is the 3-wave move up to the recent high. It can only be a corrective pattern, or part of a larger structure. It can't be a wave-1 as overlap has occurred.
 

Attachments

  • TLS2.gif
    84.2 KB · Views: 34
Totally unsurprising to anyone in the industry. Telstra is a basket case and the NBN has routed their business, they have adapted very poorly to being a retailer only, customer service has actually got worse and the silo mentality withing the org has caused massive strutural dysfunction.
 
Interested to see if Telstras announcement has changed your view on the upcoming report of Vocus.
Im still comfortable, but another drop wouldn't surprise me.
 
Porper said:
The weekly chart shows the better patterns.

Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.

Disclosure: I am short.View attachment 69965
Click to expand...

Weekly chart, slightly different method but same target area should it break down through $4.50.

(click to expand)
 

Knowing the reason for the drop is good,...

What can we do, or Telstra do... in the coming days to 'replace' that lost profit to maintain our dividend payout at 31 cps ? Well, they can always wait for the NBN payments to come in,... only question is : will this be enough ?
 
WRiley said:
Looks like it broke earlier but bounced up again.
Click to expand...

I may as well follow through with this as an exercise, let's see if it plays out.
Assuming from above pic that we are in a Wave C on the weekly chart and C has a five wave sequence of which four have already played out then we are left with two target areas.

(Weekly - click to expand)
 
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