TLS - Telstra Corporation

[DeepState]

Is that why they're down to $4.30 today ??

TPG spectrum acquisition.

 

[sptrawler]

Well it had to happen sooner or later, Telstra had better come up with a vision for growth, sitting there like mushrooms isn't going to cut. IMO

 

[Porper]

The weekly chart shows the better patterns.

Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.

Disclosure: I am short.View attachment 69965

The target area has now been achieved. However, that doesn't imply the rout is over. It's just a POTENTIAL reversal zone.

I still hold my short position.

 

[pixel]

Looks like its on it way to the next level.
Previous post here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-99#post-939986

Weekly chart
View attachment 70694

Fibonacci suggests an even worse scenario could be possible.
When the sequence 0-100%-50%- is breaking beyond 100% again, I often find 200% the next target. In this case, 200% is near enough $3.20.

 

[sptrawler]

I may as well follow through with this as an exercise, let's see if it plays out.
Assuming from above pic that we are in a Wave C on the weekly chart and C has a five wave sequence of which four have already played out then we are left with two target areas.

(Weekly - click to expand)
View attachment 70287

Well Boggo, the chart you posted on March 10, was pretty accurate regarding depth of fall.

 

[peter2]

Good work by all the TA's on this thread to project possible target prices for this move down.

I couldn't convince family TLS holders to sell on the break below 6.00, because they thought the div was too good to miss out on.

 

[pixel]

Good work by all the TA's on this thread to project possible target prices for this move down.

I couldn't convince family TLS holders to sell on the break below 6.00, because they thought the div was too good to miss out on.

hmm - $1.80 = 6 years times 30c divi; forget inflation.
that's about right back to $6 - provided it doesn't drop any lower.

too bad they don't teach real-life Maths anymore in schools

 

[peter2]

Then you invest the TLS proceeds into something that's going up and paying 4% div like a market ETF. After "6 years" you have so much more.

too bad they don't teach real-life Common Sense anymore in schools.

 

[PZ99]

Does anyone think the divvy will drop or is that a length of string question ?

 

[Porper]

Does anyone think the divvy will drop or is that a length of string question ?

I am no fundamentalist so I may be completely wrong...but, the dividend will have to be cut at some point as they can't afford to pay it at it's current rate. The other problem is growth...or rather lack of it. They need to pull a rabbit out of the bag and that's not easy.

 

[Boggo]

I have a mate in Hong Kong who has a significant six digit holding in TLS.
Last April he was buying more on the advice of as he put it "one of the top financial planners in Adelaide" who told him it had bottomed and he would never see these prices again (he may be right too ).
I gave him my opinion at the time and he emailed me about a month later to tell me how wrong I was, strange that I haven't heard any mention of TLS from him recently

Just my way of looking at it.
If a stock is going down but the dividend is good (ie TLS) its like having two employees on your payroll, one is working and the other one is standing around costing you money.
Surprising too is how many don't understand the formula for or implications of a rising dividend yield.

ALL as an opposite example has tripled in price in three years and only has a dividend yield of 1.3%.
Which one should you be holding...

 

[Boggo]

I am no fundamentalist so I may be completely wrong...but, the dividend will have to be cut at some point as they can't afford to pay it at it's current rate. The other problem is growth...or rather lack of it. They need to pull a rabbit out of the bag and that's not easy.

Expensive advertising and promotions, exorbitant non competitive prices, head in the sand attitude, competitors trouncing them and a falling share price - something has to give.

A perfect recipe for very basic "common sense" fundamentals to reinforce technical price behaviour.

 

[MrChow]

Does anyone know what happens after the NBN pit access contract expires in 30 years (or whenever it is)?

I assume if the NBN is still in use then, would they have to extend the contract with Telstra or do they have other options?

 

[sptrawler]

Does anyone think the divvy will drop or is that a length of string question ?

Their last dividend was 15.5 cents, their earnings were 14.8 cents, like everyone has said somethings got to give.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Will tpg wholesale this 4G to Telstra, Optus etc,

 

[sptrawler]

Will tpg wholesale this 4G to Telstra, Optus etc,

Why would TPG do that?
Also Telstra and Optus have their own 4G 700Mhz spectrum bandwidth, why would they want to purchase extra capacity off TPG?

 

[Muschu]

T....................
too bad they don't teach real-life Common Sense anymore in schools.

Yep, let's blame the schools....

 

[WRiley]

Their last dividend was 15.5 cents, their earnings were 14.8 cents, like everyone has said somethings got to give.

At present moment, I am factoring in just 12 cents dps per HY when I buy this ctr. If the dps given out is higher, I get to earn more,.. I preferred to err on the lower side.
TLS has never paid less than 14 cents dps per HY since the stats started in 2006/7. Hence, I'm even going below 14 cents to justify the yield for me to buy this ctr.
In the back of my mind,.. I wouldn't discount out the fact that this dps may go lower than 12 cents in the next one to two years if the profit shld suffer further.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Tls was not allowed to bid on this new spectrum?

 

[sptrawler]

Tls was not allowed to bid on this new spectrum?

No, because they bought a big chunk in the first auction of the 700Mhz spectrum, in 2013.