TLS - Telstra Corporation

[MrChow]

TLS capital management review was worded alot like BHP in 2015 with emphasis on balance sheet over distributions.

BHP had a 30 year record of rising dividends then changed to a payout ratio which resulted in dividends 3 times less.

TLS won't be that extreme, but hypothetical payout ratio of 75% on forecast medium term EBITDA (-10% net NBN vs offset strategies) would cut dividends by about a third.

They said a decision would be due this year, under that scenario what do you pay for 2020 eps of 28c and dividend of 20c?

 

[WRiley]

TLS capital management review was worded alot like BHP in 2015 with emphasis on balance sheet over distributions.

BHP had a 30 year record of rising dividends then changed to a payout ratio which resulted in dividends 3 times less.

TLS won't be that extreme, but hypothetical payout ratio of 75% on forecast medium term EBITDA (-10% net NBN vs offset strategies) would cut dividends by about a third.

They said a decision would be due this year, under that scenario what do you pay for 2020 eps of 28c and dividend of 20c?

I am estimating a yearly dps of 24 cps as of this moment,.... you are calling 20 cps ?? TLS has NEVER PAID anything less than 28 cps yearly since FY2007 !

 

[sptrawler]

I am estimating a yearly dps of 24 cps as of this moment,.... you are calling 20 cps ?? TLS has NEVER PAID anything less than 28 cps yearly since FY2007 !

Telstra owned everything in 2007.
As time goes by they will become more of a reseller, with a rental component from the NBN, unless they can come up with a way to diversify.
Previous attempts, to break into Asia, have come to nought.
The Governments cross media ownership rules, stymie a lot of options to diversify into inter media content, so I personally can't see were the moneys going to come from.
I do hold Telstra.

 

[sptrawler]

TLS capital management review was worded alot like BHP in 2015 with emphasis on balance sheet over distributions.

BHP had a 30 year record of rising dividends then changed to a payout ratio which resulted in dividends 3 times less.

TLS won't be that extreme, but hypothetical payout ratio of 75% on forecast medium term EBITDA (-10% net NBN vs offset strategies) would cut dividends by about a third.

They said a decision would be due this year, under that scenario what do you pay for 2020 eps of 28c and dividend of 20c?

A 30% drop in dividend, would in must circumstances result in a drop in share price, unless the company has a light at the end of the tunnel rhetoric and vision.
I do own them, but at this point am not adding to the holding.

 

[Boggo]

$4.80 is significant now on TLS, that will close the gap on the daily chart.
Still tending to think that another turn down may be a possibility, just my

 

[Porper]

$4.80 is significant now on TLS, that will close the gap on the daily chart.
Still tending to think that another turn down may be a possibility, just my

Agree Boggo, the gap is important now. I still believe the larger degree patterns portend another leg down. The only problem is the Butterfly reversal pattern as shown. These often prove to be significant. A push up through point A would be required to avoid a deeper retracement i.m.o.

 

[WRiley]

Telstra owned everything in 2007.
As time goes by they will become more of a reseller, with a rental component from the NBN, unless they can come up with a way to diversify.
Previous attempts, to break into Asia, have come to nought.
The Governments cross media ownership rules, stymie a lot of options to diversify into inter media content, so I personally can't see were the moneys going to come from.
I do hold Telstra.

If Telstra is able to secure something from the coming 4G spectrum auction in April, then, this would be the light at the end of the tunnel ???

 

[sptrawler]

If Telstra is able to secure something from the coming 4G spectrum auction in April, then, this would be the light at the end of the tunnel ???

The other carriers will be bidding for some spectrum also, of greater concern is access to their rural network, if the ACCC forces access big problems. IMO

 

[WRiley]

The other carriers will be bidding for some spectrum also, of greater concern is access to their rural network, if the ACCC forces access big problems. IMO

It is sufficient if TLS can get a bigger chunk of the auction, and it's not necessary for her to catch everything, IMO,... then the ACCC will not, hopefully force access into ALL the rural areas. Just a small part of the rural area is okay.

 

[Porper]

Nothing changes in my view. The wave equality projection aligns with the 61.8% retracement level providing confluence as per chart. Still heading lower. Also, as I posted yesterday...the banks have bearish divergence on the daily and weekly charts. Not good for the XJO.

 

[sptrawler]

The problem with Telstra, is they don't think outside the square, just try using their websites to give them a suggestion.
It is o.k if you want to comment on what they do, but try giving them an idea, they don't supply a box for new ideas/suggestions. lol
Obviously they think, they do everything right, and there isn't a new idea worth pursuing.
Just another Aussie icon going round the S bend. IMO

 

[WRiley]

Available blocks of the 700 MHz spectrum is due to start auction on Tuesday, April 4th.,... unless the date has been changed by the ACMA. Let's see how Telstra does,...

 

[Boggo]

I have a Telstra sim in my ipad for use when I am out of wifi range etc.
The current 365 days is about to expire so I had a look at the recharge cost with Telstra and how much the same would cost with Optus.
With Optus I have to pay $2 for a new sim card and then recharge it.

I have recently cancelled my home phone and mobile that were with Telstra and gone to Internode and Optus.
Looks like the ipad data is due for a change too.

Is this a complete ripoff or am I missing something ? No wonder they are on the nose !!

 

[sptrawler]

Boggo it might be worth going to a Telstra shop, I'm on $50 for 5gig 365 day expiry. I think they also do $140 for 16gig with 730 day expiry.
Still expensive, but better than what you have posted.
Telstra is hanging on by its finger tips, if they have to give other carriers access to their Country network, they are history. IMO

 

[Boggo]

Boggo it might be worth going to a Telstra shop...

Thanks sptrawler.

I was with Telstra for many years with my iphone and when the old one started playing up I had a look at the iphone SE as it is fairly compact and the same size as the iphone 5.

The pic below was what I found, I printed off both pages and went to the local Telstra shop, showed them what Optus was offering but they wouldn't budge.

Result was that I went with Optus and also cancelled my home line that was with Telstra and bundled that in with Internode broadband, $$ savings on both home line and broadband.

"It's our way or the highway" attitude is costing them business but they don't seem to care !

iPhone SE comparison, note the talk time difference.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes Telstra prices are outrageous, I'm with Iprimus home line and woolies mobile, only have Telstra mobile data usb dongle for coverage while travelling.

 

[WRiley]

The 700 MHz spectrum auction was held yesterday. Anybody heard of any results yet ?
http://www.acma.gov.au/Industry/Spectrum/Spectrum-projects/700-MHz-band/700-mhz-auction-overview

 

[sptrawler]

TPG and Vodaphone picked up the remaining 700mhz spectrum, Telstra wasn't allowed to bid as it purchased a slab in an earlier auction.

 

[PZ99]

Is that why they're down to $4.30 today ??

 

[Boggo]

Looks like its on it way to the next level.
Previous post here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-99#post-939986

Weekly chart