TLS - Telstra Corporation

[Triathlete]

I am expecting TLS to continue towards $4.60 and worst case $4.15.....might be time to start shorting....

Attached is my latest analysis...Happy trading

Triathlete

 

[Quant]

I am expecting TLS to continue towards $4.60 and worst case $4.15.....might be time to start shorting....

Attached is my latest analysis...Happy trading

Triathlete


View attachment 68624

Wow im sure they are WAY better candidates for shorting , solid earnings with a fully franked div in the 6% zone in this 10 year 2.3% yield world isnt anything id be shorting here atm when its already near 20% of recent highs . Good luck if you do short sell

 

[Triathlete]

Wow im sure they are WAY better candidates for shorting , solid earnings with a fully franked div in the 6% zone in this 10 year 2.3% yield world isnt anything id be shorting here atm when its already near 20% of recent highs . Good luck if you do short sell

Yes you could be right, but I am just looking at the levels...I actually think BKL at the moment might be a better short ...what do you think??

 

[UMike]

I am expecting TLS to continue towards $4.60 and worst case $4.15.....might be time to start shorting....

Attached is my latest analysis...Happy trading

Triathlete


View attachment 68624

Would depend a lot on how you think the ASX200 is going.
Seems TLS has outperformed this slightly.

Buyers number have seemed to halve atm while the sellers numbers stayed the same.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

$4.92 close today

doesn't matter how good the dividend is on these companies, the chance of losing capital is so high no one is buying

 

[dpgrubesic]

$4.92 close today

doesn't matter how good the dividend is on these companies, the chance of losing capital is so high no one is buying

I'd give you that i'd argue the market has been pretty shaky past couple weeks due to the US election and if Trump wins it will probably continue in a a bear fashion for the short term.

 

[Klogg]

$4.92 close today

doesn't matter how good the dividend is on these companies, the chance of losing capital is so high no one is buying

Confirmation bias.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

$4.85 at close, apparently you not buying Telstra but some type of bond proxy stock that will go up and down depending on what happens to bonds

nothing to do with telecommunications

 

[Miner]

$4.85 at close, apparently you not buying Telstra but some type of bond proxy stock that will go up and down depending on what happens to bonds

nothing to do with telecommunications

agreed TLS is not doing well . But if I compare performance on stock eg TPM, VOC - then it tells some story on telecommunication stocks. I incurred some loss on my buy price but I am long on TLS.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85

 

[sptrawler]

I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85

Until Telstra can come up with a plan to shore up earnings, investors will continue to lose confidence in their ability to maintain the dividend.

The NBN is still rolling out and making the playing field more and more level, the majority of the customer base is concentrated in the high density city areas, where all carriers will have the same coverage therefore equal earning potential.

Telstra needs to find another income stream, while it is still getting compensation payments from the Government, giving all their money away to support a dividend is short sighted.IMO

They should have bought channel10 when it was available, then integrated free to air/ foxtel and over the internet t.v years ago. Only my opinion.

I have a holding in Telstra, but I'm definitely not adding to it, until I can see where their growth will come from.

The banks get natural inflation hedged growth, by the fact wages generally go up, so more goes in, Telstra is competing in a market where prices generally go down.

As I said only my opinion, as a contribution to the discussion.

 

[Miner]

I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85

Until Telstra can come up with a plan to shore up earnings, investors will continue to lose confidence in their ability to maintain the dividend.

The NBN is still rolling out and making the playing field more and more level, the majority of the customer base is concentrated in the high density city areas, where all carriers will have the same coverage therefore equal earning potential.

Telstra needs to find another income stream, while it is still getting compensation payments from the Government, giving all their money away to support a dividend is short sighted.IMO

They should have bought channel10 when it was available, then integrated free to air/ foxtel and over the internet t.v years ago. Only my opinion.

I have a holding in Telstra, but I'm definitely not adding to it, until I can see where their growth will come from.

The banks get natural inflation hedged growth, by the fact wages generally go up, so more goes in, Telstra is competing in a market where prices generally go down.

As I said only my opinion, as a contribution to the discussion.

Candidly today my confidence on TLS is shaken terribly. Price has dived down . NBN was down in many areas of Perth yesterday also. That could also have contributed investment community.
Like Toyota L I am now in 'deep soup'.
Let us pray together for miracle like Trump saw. But I do not have red hair of three lovely mistresses turned out to be wives as Trump has.

 

[UMike]

OK OK.....
But what's changed to last few days.

I've been lucky and unloaded quite a few at the last few peaks.
I've just bought back to my original holding amount.

 

[Triathlete]

I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85

What you have described here is what the majority of buy and hold investors do.

I learnt my lesson many many years ago when the same thing happened to me holding MBL and watching that stock go from $20 into the $90's and was still holding it when it came back down to $40.I was very inexperienced at the time....

Since that time I knew I had to look at investing differently so I eventually learnt something about technical's to go with the fundamentals and this has helped me.

A must for me now is every time I take a position I will always set an exit point both on the upside and downside based on the Fundamentals and Technical's at the the time of the investment and then just continue to monitor the situation....

Whether there is better reports coming out on the company and if the technical's are supporting that view, and they match up then all good and if the technical's do not support that view then I keep a close eye on the situation...just my

 

[So_Cynical]

10 year chart clearly shows where TLS was good, "no remorse" buying, i have no idea what so ever why anyone would be buying after that point, looking back it was quite a large (3 years) entry point if one considered that under $3.75 was the buy zone, under $3 it was a screaming buy.
~

 

[Miner]

just putting some salt on my own wound TLS has been downgraded . The 2.5% rise on last week could be a temporary. Still holding but watching to get my exit low price .
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/63932-ratings-agency-cuts-its-outlook-on-telstra.html

 

[UMike]

just putting some salt on my own wound TLS has been downgraded . The 2.5% rise on last week could be a temporary. Still holding but watching to get my exit low price .
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/63932-ratings-agency-cuts-its-outlook-on-telstra.html

Morningstar analyst estimates still maintain their $6.00 Intrinsic Valuation but with a Fair Value Uncertainty:
Medium

 

[Miner]

Morningstar analyst estimates still maintain their $6.00 Intrinsic Valuation but with a Fair Value Uncertainty:
Medium

Agreed. I read just now from Fat Prophets that they have initiated BUY for Telstra on long term basis.

"Telstra is resting on long-term support, and the Telco looks to be great buying at current levels. A 6.5% dividend yield (9.5% grossed up for franking credits) combined with longer term top line revenue growth prospects, is an opportunity that doesn’t come knocking every day."

BTW I am also looking into TPG and AYS instead of VOC.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

the dividend is just worthless at the moment, it means nothing by the looks of it, 9.5% gross yield!

so many companies that are paying out year after year are flops yet a company with a very minor dividend is soaring

when this changes who knows

 

[Miner]

the dividend is just worthless at the moment, it means nothing by the looks of it, 9.5% gross yield!

so many companies that are paying out year after year are flops yet a company with a very minor dividend is soaring

when this changes who knows