TLS - Telstra Corporation

[Triathlete]

I also do not doubt the sincerity of many analysts.

I do wonder, if analysts of any particular conviction are so skillled at what they do, how many of them are now people of exceptional wealth.

I think the question should be....

"How many of these analyst / technicians are now generating greater than the average returns of the market due to there knowledge of the market and there skill level to generate and above market return."

So if the average has been 8% over the very long term and they are generating greater than 20% in there personal portfolios then it will still take many years to achieve exceptional wealth even starting with a 100K portfolio and without leverage.

Or if we look at it another way....

If the market returns 20% in a year and the analyst/technician returns 40%
then there returns would be classified as exceptional and a very skilled technician of the market.

 

[Muschu]

I think the question should be....

"How many of these analyst / technicians are now generating greater than the average returns of the market due to there knowledge of the market and there skill level to generate and above market return."

So if the average has been 8% over the very long term and they are generating greater than 20% in there personal portfolios then it will still take many years to achieve exceptional wealth even starting with a 100K portfolio and without leverage.

Or if we look at it another way....

If the market returns 20% in a year and the analyst/technician returns 40%
then there returns would be classified as exceptional and a very skilled technician of the market.

That's a fair point Triathlete. Thank you. I hope some posters have done this well.

And, if I may add, when I said "With respect" I meant it. I have been around too long to play word games.

 

[rimtas]

Based on Telco's Index XTJ, Telstra can be labelled the same as Index, which Is a nice looking Leading Diagonal.
Though the most recent rise from $5.95 to $6.34 took just two weeks and looks a bit short in terms of time in order to correct 5 mo decline, but it corrected 50% of it, which can be considered as enough. Maybe it will squeak another wave to $6.44 producing a better looking wave and give the last chance for folks to exit near highs, but chances that the third wave is starting, are high.

The drop below $5.95 will confirm that "fast and furious" selling is starting, that will carry prices right to $5.00 area in a relatively short time, giving everyone a realization that no matter how strong fundamentally company is, it's share price is still at the mercy of the market mood.

 

[CanOz]

I wouldn't mind owning a bit of the ole Telstra, whats the dividend at 6 bucks?

 

[notting]

It's a very long view.
But worth noting -

 

[PinguPingu]

Mixed result, but decent divvie. Looks like some dip buyers coming in for the yield.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

reasonable effort by TLS

as life rolls on I cannot see any other company providing the internet, data and mobile service that they offer and this will slowly equate to a better valuation for shareholders

the contracts they get which involve the supply and management of big data networks to government and large corporations will be a good contributor as well I feel

 

[So_Cynical]

as life rolls on I cannot see any other company providing the internet, data and mobile service that they offer and this will slowly equate to a better valuation for shareholders

The problem with being number 1 is staying there, maintaining market share while the lower cost competitors chip away at you, the NBN provides a level playing field of sorts, EVERY other telco provides what telstra does at a lower price with less or similar service.

the contracts they get which involve the supply and management of big data networks to government and large corporations will be a good contributor as well I feel

Maquarie do a lot of the data services to govt depts, The recent Amcom Vocus merger will help Vocus chip away at the corporate market...the game has changed a bit for Telstra, mobile they are still dominant but again when your number 1 it's hard to get growth.

 

[Knobby22]

I sold mine a few months ago. if I still held I would be looking to sell on any upturn. This company has peaked.

 

[rimtas]

TLS has a nice three wave correction (up) and now is poised to break may-Jun bottom and decline towards $5.

 

[Muschu]

TLS has a nice three wave correction (up) and now is poised to break may-Jun bottom and decline towards $5.


View attachment 63951

Any further thoughts on this one Rimtas? I appreciate your contributions.

 

[MrBurns]

TLS has a nice three wave correction (up) and now is poised to break may-Jun bottom and decline towards $5.

Time to buy then ? Yes I know you roll the dice and take your chances

 

[Triathlete]

Looking at my own weekly chart and price tables.I would expect TLS to hold around $5.70 currently on a EW C.

If this price does not hold then it could come back all the way to $4.50 over time.

I will post a chart in the next day or so of my analysis.

 

[Triathlete]

Looking at my own weekly chart and price tables.I would expect TLS to hold around $5.70 currently on a EW C.

If this price does not hold then it could come back all the way to $4.50 over time.

I will post a chart in the next day or so of my analysis.

My current view on Telstra, weekly chart.....Any other views???

 

[Muschu]

My current view on Telstra, weekly chart.....Any other views???


View attachment 64061

I'm no chartist TriA and wish I could contribute more in that area. Telstra has been a pretty good investment for both growth and dividends in recent times. I am semi-retired and TLS is in my portfolio. I recently decreased my holdings in case the SP headed south as several analysts have suggested it may.
That doesn't really appear to have happened yet, apart from the XD response. It may decline of course - or not.
However I am interested in the probabilities from here.... So far diminishing my hold has proven expensive...

 

[rimtas]

I hold a firm view that TLS is poised to decline to 2010 bottom of 2.54. This could happen either until Jul 2016, or until 2022-23, where only Wave (A) bottoms out in 2016.
I am not a financial advisor, but waves suggest that if there is a rebound till 6.20 in the coming days/weeks, which is highly probable, take the last chance to get out. Back tests from below the channel comes more often than not, so I expect this to happen.

TLS is overbought, over believed and all TLS shareholders share the same dream. Alarm is ringing, and when it stops, all dreamers awake. Then there will be too late to hope for a dream to continue.

 

[tinhat]

I am not a financial advisor, but waves suggest that if there is a rebound till 6.20 in the coming days/weeks, which is highly probable, take the last chance to get out.

Then, perhaps you shouldn't be giving out financial advice.

 

[Triathlete]

I'm no chartist TriA and wish I could contribute more in that area. Telstra has been a pretty good investment for both growth and dividends in recent times. I am semi-retired and TLS is in my portfolio. I recently decreased my holdings in case the SP headed south as several analysts have suggested it may.
That doesn't really appear to have happened yet, apart from the XD response. It may decline of course - or not.
However I am interested in the probabilities from here.... So far diminishing my hold has proven expensive...

I agree with you on knowing the likely probabilities......and whether you are able to get them in your favour or not before you invest or trade..

I also like to trade on... "what I know and see and not what I think"

Here is another chart on TLS this time it is based on a longer term view using a monthly chart.

 

[Muschu]

Really interesting and much appreciated.... Might watch for a little while yet..

 

[rimtas]

Short term traders must look tomorrow for a bottom of this decline from ~6.50.