TLS - Telstra Corporation

[ROE]

Too right. Reminds me of Kerry Packer's quip, "You only get one Alan Bond in a lifetime"

That was before the internet trading
There dozen of them now every week

 

[Bintang]

That was before the internet trading
There dozen of them now every week

That's funny but I think you are talking about smaller fry than Alan Bond and unfortunately The Future Fund stopped dumping TLS. I wish they would do it again.

 

[datto]

That was before the internet trading
There dozen of them now every week

The thing with Bondy is that even though he went through the mincer, in the end he's still got plenty of coin. He's about the only survivor from that era.

 

[The Falcon]

^ Not forgetting K.M. Stokes of course

 

[Muschu]

The thing with Bondy is that even though he went through the mincer, in the end he's still got plenty of coin. He's about the only survivor from that era.

Survived in monetary terms only however.

 

[datto]

^ Not forgetting K.M. Stokes of course

Bondy was more colourful

He made me laugh

 

[datto]

Survived in monetary terms only however.

Life's had it's ups and downs I suppose

 

[rimtas]

As of Today TLS is moving against the main trend for 5 straight month. That's the biggest time-wise correction since the 2010 Bottom, suggesting that the 5 year run-up is over. Depending of what the broader market will do, TLS may crash or move sideways, but the bottom line is that it should correct the entire advance since $2,5 bottom. It could take years.

Now the stock is still above the two trendlines that market see as important ones. The breach of any of them only confirms that bear market in TLS has started. Short term wave subdivisions are not textbook, best looking like a bunch of 3's, but switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.

 

[tinhat]

As of Today TLS is moving against the main trend for 5 straight month. That's the biggest time-wise correction since the 2010 Bottom, suggesting that the 5 year run-up is over. Depending of what the broader market will do, TLS may crash or move sideways, but the bottom line is that it should correct the entire advance since $2,5 bottom. It could take years.

Now the stock is still above the two trendlines that market see as important ones. The breach of any of them only confirms that bear market in TLS has started. Short term wave subdivisions are not textbook, best looking like a bunch of 3's, but switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.

View attachment 62897

Maybe it helps that I don't know much about Elliot waves and don't use them, except when they appear obvious to me, but the wave count you've applied to that chart is just plain ridiculous. Talk about the emperor wearing no cloths. Leave aside your mumbo jumbo, stand back from the monitor and tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart. No argument that it is correcting - it has come off over 10% this year; but how you've managed to get five Elliot waves into that chart is beyond me.

 

[Triathlete]

Maybe it helps that I don't know much about Elliot waves and don't use them, except when they appear obvious to me, but the wave count you've applied to that chart is just plain ridiculous. stand back from the monitor and tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart. No argument that it is correcting - it has come off over 10% this year; but how you've managed to get five Elliot waves into that chart is beyond me.

View attachment 62912

You are using a weekly chart.

The chart that was put up previous was a daily chart

Here is my take on it from the daily chart.....I prefer using weekly and monthly charts.

Wave 2 has retraced almost 100% of the wave 1...usually retraces 38.2% - 61.8% but can be up to 100%.

Wave 3 is usually the extended wave and the safest wave to profit from usually rises 162% to 262% of the price range of wave 1.
In this case it has risen 725% of wave 1.The minimum a wave 3 rises is usually 100%.

Wave 4 usually retraces 38.2% to 61.8% of price range of wave 3 and usually no more than 50%.In a very bullish share wave 4 may only retrace up to 25% in this case 16%.

Wave 5 usually rises 50% to 75 % of price range of wave 3. In this case just short of 50%.

Note: Their are other rules but this is the basics for this explanation.

 

[Muschu]

As of Today TLS is moving against the main trend for 5 straight month. That's the biggest time-wise correction since the 2010 Bottom, suggesting that the 5 year run-up is over. Depending of what the broader market will do, TLS may crash or move sideways, but the bottom line is that it should correct the entire advance since $2,5 bottom. It could take years.

Now the stock is still above the two trendlines that market see as important ones. The breach of any of them only confirms that bear market in TLS has started. Short term wave subdivisions are not textbook, best looking like a bunch of 3's, but switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.

View attachment 62897

Hi Rimtas

I appreciate your contributions.

I can't locate a previous post of yours that I was searching for. I thought it suggested $6.08 as a buy point.

I may have this totally wrong and am not a TA by any stretch of the imagination.

Does anyone on ASF REALLY know where the market is heading?

Regards and apologies if my recollection is incorrect.

 

[Triathlete]

Hi Rimtas


I can't locate a previous post of yours that I was searching for. I thought it suggested $6.08 as a buy point.

I may have this totally wrong and am not a TA by any stretch of the imagination.

Hi Muschu,
That price above $6.08 may have been an entry back then but we would have been on an impulse wave 5 still moving higher and based on EW theory would have been looking for it to rise to 50% @$6.83 as a minimum,16% higher,... to 75% @ $7.62 which is 25% higher.

However now that we are in retracement and a possible wave A or LT wave 2 now is not the time to buy as we are possibly in a corrective wave decline ( as Rimtas has mentioned )which could be anywhere between 38.2% to 100% we cannot tell until we see it unfolding on the chart and keep updating our wave counts.

Also looking at the daily chart an earlier entry of $5.81 on dow theory entry would have been a conservative entry if you had been trading off this daily chart and a more aggressive trader may have been in earlier after the first signs that the trend had change up on daily and weekly Gann swing up.

 

[craft]

switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.

Would take a turn around in current financial suppression environment IMO. The TLS business is pretty stable ATM and price is more a result of the discount rate applied than anything else. It could be regarded as expensive on an absolute basis but not relative to other reasonably stable yields available.

On a relative basis to the XAO nothing in duration or depth out of the ordinary here.




ps
Waves are for surfing.

[video=vimeo;71959302]https://vimeo.com/71959302[/video]

 

[Triathlete]

The TLS business is pretty stable ATM and price is more a result of the discount rate applied than anything else. It could be regarded as expensive on an absolute basis but not relative to other reasonably stable yields available.

Then best to let it discount some more before jumping back in...!!

 

[Triathlete]

You are using a weekly chart.

The chart that was put up previous was a daily chart

Here is my take on it from the daily chart.....I prefer using weekly and monthly charts.

Correction to previous post 1770....I have put up a weekly chart instead of a daily chart as well but we can still see the breakdown of the waves.

There is a possibility that we could be retracing on a wave 4 and so we could still have a wave 5 to go we will need to see how far this move retraces to have an idea of where we are.

The trend lines that where shown on Rimtas's chart will be important so need to keep an eye on it and we still may get a chance to trade it long once we get some confirmation on what wave we are on.

Possibilities in my opinion so far we could be on a wave 4,wave A, or a Long term wave 2.

 

[Porper]

the wave count you've applied to that chart is just plain ridiculous. Talk about the emperor wearing no cloths. Leave aside your mumbo jumbo, stand back from the monitor and tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart.

To me there is no high probability wave count on this chart. The one previously put forward as completing 5-waves is clearly incorrect and fits somebody's bias...as in a wave count has been made to "fit" someone's expectations. A common fault with Elliott Wave pupils.

Moving down in a falling channel to support. Good yield which should be sustainable, so difficult to envisage a steep decline.

 

[Porper]

To me there is no high probability wave count on this chart. The one previously put forward as completing 5-waves is clearly incorrect and fits somebody's bias...as in a wave count has been made to "fit" someone's expectations. A common fault with Elliott Wave pupils.

Moving down in a falling channel to support. Good yield which should be sustainable, so difficult to envisage a steep decline.

Forgot to mention the 200 day moving average. Coincidence?

 

[Triathlete]

To me there is no high probability wave count on this chart. The one previously put forward as completing 5-waves is clearly incorrect and fits somebody's bias...as in a wave count has been made to "fit" someone's expectations. A common fault with Elliott Wave pupils.

Moving down in a falling channel to support. Good yield which should be sustainable, so difficult to envisage a steep decline.

Hi Porper,
With the way you have marked up your chart could we not say that the move from the low in Sept 2014 to the high in Feb 2015 could be the LT wave 1 and with the current retracement if it finds support as is shown on your chart could be the LT wave 2 and then start the LT wave 3 ?

 

[Porper]

Hi Porper,
With the way you have marked up your chart could we not say that the move from the low in Sept 2014 to the high in Feb 2015 could be the LT wave 1 and with the current retracement if it finds support as is shown on your chart could be the LT wave 2 and then start the LT wave 3 ?

Could be Triathlete but the leg you are talking about unfolds in 3-waves...corrective. Also where does that leg higher fit within the larger degree count? TLS price action has been strong, no doubt about that but for the most part it has been quite choppy. My opinion only but for me, trying to force a count on this chart doesn't help from a trading point of view. Sometimes it's best to go with more traditional analysis....or stand aside.

 

[Triathlete]

Could be Triathlete but the leg you are talking about unfolds in 3-waves...corrective. Also where does that leg higher fit within the larger degree count? TLS price action has been strong, no doubt about that but for the most part it has been quite choppy. My opinion only but for me, trying to force a count on this chart doesn't help from a trading point of view. Sometimes it's best to go with more traditional analysis....or stand aside.

Thanks for your view Porper.
I had also carried out some price analysis to try and support the EW wave count and had come up with these level which are the strongest in my view:

$5.70
$7.00
$7.68
$10.84
$11.50

I usually use a combination of price, pattern and time analysis to help zero in on the likely future movement and turning points of a stock and do not use EW in isolation.