TLS - Telstra Corporation

[CanOz]

Two stops to go, maybe 5.00 will be a good bargain! Got some powder dry for these guys.....

 

[rimtas]

Short term traders must look tomorrow for a bottom of this decline from ~6.50.

Next day we had a bottom at $5.53, since then series 1's and 2's started to develop. I am looking for a correction towards $6, maybe even put my own money if confirmation develops( as 5) in the next few days.

 

[MrBurns]

Just loaded up on TLS long term should be ok and they are at a low at the moment.

 

[skcots]

What was your reason for buying today?
I would have thought a yearly low would be a reason not to take any new positions yet.

 

[MrBurns]

I'm not a sophisticated investor
I just saw they were down and thought I might as well have it in TLS than sitting in the bank
I'm prepared for more volatility but will be holding long term.

 

[skcots]

Fair enough. I can see the value of the dividend over the bank.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm not a sophisticated investor
I just saw they were down and thought I might as well have it in TLS than sitting in the bank
I'm prepared for more volatility but will be holding long term.

I agree with your sentiments, but I just can't get my head around, where Telstra will get the money to support the dividend as the NBN rolls out.

I do have a holding in them, but can't see the benifit in adding to them, maybe someone can enlighten me.:1zhelp:

 

[MrBurns]

I hope their foray into Asia will keep the growth going apart from that I employ the strategy of fingers crossed

 

[UMike]

I agree with your sentiments, but I just can't get my head around, where Telstra will get the money to support the dividend as the NBN rolls out.

I do have a holding in them, but can't see the benifit in adding to them, maybe someone can enlighten me.:1zhelp:

I read ya.

I sold alot of them at the $6.50 mark but struggled with that decision. However, buying half of that lot back (even though I missed out on 2 dividends) makes sense as I think they will be a great long term investment. Even with the NBN.

Bottom picking quality stocks atm is a valid stratagy imo.

 

[Ves]

I agree with your sentiments, but I just can't get my head around, where Telstra will get the money to support the dividend as the NBN rolls out.

Can you please expand on this?

It seems you are predicting that Telstra might be less profitable once the NBN rolls out (hence a lower dividend). What are the reasons you think might be behind this?

 

[Porper]

Quite a bit of negativity around for TLS but the patterns suggest a bounce will kick in now. A push down through 5.25 means I am wrong. I'll post a chart when I have some time.

 

[Porper]

Quite a bit of negativity around for TLS but the patterns suggest a bounce will kick in now. A push down through 5.25 means I am wrong. I'll post a chart when I have some time.

Chart attached. A few things advocating a bounce.

1. Bullish divergence has triggered.
2. 5 wave move down within wave-C
3. Hit 1.618 projection and reversed.
4. Volume increased at lows.

If $5.25 fails to hold then the patterns change for the worse...a lot worse. Also more applicable to U.S markets... but the 200 day moving average has been very significant on this chart. May well now act as resistance on the way up.

I hold TLS.

 

[rnr]

I hold TLS.

Porper, if you don't mind me asking, are you trading (i.e. Holding purchased since 19/10/2015) or are you a long term holder of TLS shares? No sinister reason for asking, but if trading then I would like to ask some further questions.

Cheers
Rob

 

[Porper]

Porper, if you don't mind me asking, are you trading (i.e. Holding purchased since 19/10/2015) or are you a long term holder of TLS shares? No sinister reason for asking, but if trading then I would like to ask some further questions.

Cheers
Rob

Hi Rob, just a swing trade at the moment. However I don't tend to take profits at set targets...just tighten stops.

 

[rnr]

Hi Rob, just a swing trade at the moment. However I don't tend to take profits at set targets...just tighten stops.

Hi Porper, thanks for responding and, as per my initial reply, another question if I may.

Do you enter a swing trade, long or short, if your wave count and divergence are evident on same bar (i.e. look for a bearish trade following wave B in August of this year)?

 

[Porper]

Hi Porper, thanks for responding and, as per my initial reply, another question if I may.

Do you enter a swing trade, long or short, if your wave count and divergence are evident on same bar (i.e. look for a bearish trade following wave B in August of this year)?

Yes, that is a good example (wave B high). However you'll rarely pick the exact high/low as divergence needs to trigger as a confirming factor before initiating a position. In that example you'd have shorted on the 5th of August. I didn't as wave B could only be labelled after the event as it pushed through the 61.8% retracement level.

At the recent low the divergence triggered on Tuesday so a nice low risk entry. For me that's a very important aspect of a trade.

 

[CanOz]

Nice Porper, the volume profile has some confluence with your target

 

[Porper]

Nice Porper, the volume profile has some confluence with your target

Great, the more confluence the better CanOz. Doesn't guarantee anything but provides an edge i.m.o.

 

[sptrawler]

Can you please expand on this?

It seems you are predicting that Telstra might be less profitable once the NBN rolls out (hence a lower dividend). What are the reasons you think might be behind this?

The only reason I think they may be less profitable, in the long term, is they end up being an on seller of internet access same as everyone else.

The difference being, they do receive ongoing lease payments for backbone access.

I personally don't think, this will end up being enough to support, the current dividend payout ratio. I could be wrong, have been on heaps of occasions.

But what is their current earning per share? $0.34c and their current dividend $0.30c that isn't much margin.IMO

It isn't a problem when you bought them at $3, but it does expose the gonads, if you bought them at $6.

That is unless you can see a blinding flash of light, where they are going to obtain growth, rather than lose customers.

I always thought Telstra should have made a move on a free to air broadcaster, and built a broader footprint, much earlier.

Poking around and throwing away money in O/S countries, to supply what they already had, seemed fraught with danger.

Untill they come up with something, that is going to make everyone chose them, over Iprimus, Dodo, Optus,Virgin and so on. I can't see where the growth is going to come from, to support the P/E's of the banks etc.

Like i always say, it's only my take and I don't drive a porsche or live in a McMansion, so I'm no guru.

 

[Ves]

That's all fair enough, if the communications industry (internet / mobile / data etc.) became increasingly commoditised in Australia, then my thinking would be that a lower cost base through larger scale than the competition would be a potential saving grace for Telstra. That all depends on them holding a leading share of the market of course.

Also; my understanding is that the government (don't recall which one, but probably both) made a bit of a dog's breakfast of the NBN competition laws, and there were a few loopholes open for Telstra, Optus and especially TPG to exploit through Fibre to the Basement. Not sure what this does in terms of profits going forward.

All 3 seem to hold separate non-NBN infrastructure too, which could potentially be leveraged.