TLS - Telstra Corporation

[tech/a]

Go where the money is and go there often.
Look at other sectors.
Lithium
Resource
Health

To name a few

 

[brty]

I fully agree with Tech/A here. Why waste time on something that might gain or lose 20-50% over the next year or so when other aspects of the market are flying with 200-1000% over a couple of weeks or months.
Yes you miss cap gains tax exemptions, big deal, get use to paying lots of tax if you want to be successful.

 

[Jimbo55]

I fully agree with Tech/A here. Why waste time on something that might gain or lose 20-50% over the next year or so when other aspects of the market are flying with 200-1000% over a couple of weeks or months.
Yes you miss cap gains tax exemptions, big deal, get use to paying lots of tax if you want to be successful.

I really don’t think I’d be lucky enough to find a stock that is going to give such gains (200%). I think my best chance would be for a asx100 company. I’m struggling as it is to find a reliable resource to seek advice from in terms of which shares to buy/sell/hold even for your household names

 

[brty]

Household names are not the section of the market where the gains are being made. You are looking left instead of right.

If you are looking for safety, good resource or income with very tiny risk, the returns are likely to be minor.
You do NOT bet the farm on any one play, but use the sorts of things taught and shown that work on so many threads.
Bet small, be prepared to lose, but let winners run.

The stock I mentioned on another thread, pretty much has nothing but an idea, but when I entered had a relatively low number of shares on issue, had a market cap of only $4m so not much above shell value, plus an idea or plan. I certainly did not want to hold for a long time, but a couple of positive looking announcements in the current market and it flew. It was only TA and experience I bought it on.

I can't find a good reliable household name to bet on at present either, yet making plenty at the other end of the market that is actually moving!!

 

[pixel]

You need to look at companies that will make returns on your investment each and every year....

spot-on
... and if they stop rising, sell them and replace them with shares in a company that does promise to rise. "promise" not as in "make big promises in glossy advertorial style", but "in the process of being re-rated by the Market, and rising".

PS: If you can, grab hold of a copy of Marcus Padley's commentary in today's weekend papers, e.g. The Weekend West.

 

[Triathlete]

spot-on
... and if they stop rising, sell them and replace them with shares in a company that does promise to rise. "promise" not as in "make big promises in glossy advertorial style", but "in the process of being re-rated by the Market, and rising".

PS: If you can, grab hold of a copy of Marcus Padley's commentary in today's weekend papers, e.g. The Weekend West.

www.pressreader.com/australia/the-west-australian/20171111/282797831656055

 

[Boggo]

Where to next, needs to close this gap.

 

[sptrawler]

I wonder who or what is driving the share price, I haven't been keeping an eye on them recently.

 

[sptrawler]

There are a lot of shares changing hands, and a lot of buy recommendations, there is a valuation of $4.40 on one.
I don't know what they are smoking.
Anyway, I'll sit on the fence and wait for the hype to settle, still backing Boggo and Triathlete's original prognosis.

 

[pixel]

Today's Option Expiry has probably some influence on the sp.
I have support at $3.61, which "just so happens" to be a significant Fibonacci level. If it plays out "by the book", $3.96 could be in sight.

 

[PZ99]

Telstra has seen its first half profit fall by 6 per cent as its sales revenue flat-lined and the impact of the NBN and write down of its video streaming business took its toll.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-...ofit-drops-6-per-cent-to-$1.7-billion/9449266

Sales, profit loss and lower divvies. Is the worst over or yet to come?

 

[sptrawler]

I find it interesting that the dividend is 7.5c and a special dividend of 3.5c, if this is the first step toward a dividend of 7.5c, the worst is yet to come.

The biggest problem telstra have IMO is, they seem to stuff up every opportunity to branch into new areas, the latest write down being one of a many.
It is a very competitive field and the opposition where given a big leg up when they entered Australia, at Telstra's expense.

 

[pixel]

I find it interesting that the dividend is 7.5c and a special dividend of 3.5c, if this is the first step toward a dividend of 7.5c, the worst is yet to come.

The biggest problem telstra have IMO is, they seem to stuff up every opportunity to branch into new areas, the latest write down being one of a many.
It is a very competitive field and the opposition where given a big leg up when they entered Australia, at Telstra's expense.

Telstra had a much too easy ride for much too long.
Remember, they were given an $11B present from the taxpayer for the suburban copper network, which was in most parts corroded and in disrepair. It had been known for years that it had far exceeded its use-by date; therefore, only the absolute minimum was done to maintain it fit for the old steam phone purposes. Consequently, most of those $11B were in fact a net profit - once off.
And who benefits the most from the need to patch up the inevitable breakdowns and the subsequent NBN stuff-ups? SSM of course. Now SSM have the quasi-monopoly in network maintenance, and their soaring profit results a showing the utter stupidity of turfing it out. As a TLS subsidiary, it would substantially enhance the bottom line...

 

[moXJO]

I had my business phones set up with them and it was almost double the price of what a competitor was offering.
It took over a month and a half of telstra stuffing around just to get the complex service off the line so I could port the numbers.

From the sounds of it, there was mass migration going on. They even tried to get me to stay by offering me a deal that was still way over. While also under delivering services. That was after I told them what deal I was getting with the other mob.

Been a while since they were this bad.

 

[tinhat]

I took most of my profits some time ago. I only have a tiny portion left in the self managed super and my Mother's income portfolio. The problem is I churned a fair chunk of my investment in TLS into VOC and TPM and I've now got bloody hands from catching those two falling knives. I swore that would be the last time I try to pick the bottom of a stock price and I've since developed some further TA rules around value buying.

As someone who uses very little data and rarely uses my mobile (limited reception where I live - I have to go to the road to make a call) I find their tablet plans on a 24 month contract quite reasonable.

They had a great deal a while ago where I got a Samsung Tab A and 1.5GB of data (somehow I managed to wrangle an extra 0.5GB of data from them under the contract) for $15 a month. Unfortunately, I accidently left the tablet on the roof of my car while unloading it and I ran the tablet over a few weeks ago. The tablet was actually bent like a banana and the screen was all smashed but it miraculously continued to work for a while the battery has now died. I've got four months ($60) until the contract ran out and when I asked Telsta what it would cost to early terminate they said $180.

I just got my Mum a Samsung Tab 8 (9.7") with 1GB data for $30 a month on 24 month contract. We share a total of 3GB data on the account and never use it. $10 per GB automatic top-up if we do seems a good deal.

 

[greggles]

A 10 year chart provides an interesting perspective on Telstra.

There are few industries that have seen as much deregulation and competition as telecommunications and Telstra has been the big loser since peaking at around $6.75 in early 2015.

However, there are signs that it may be starting to bottom out. Dividend yield is around 7%, so it appears to be mostly negative sentiment that is dragging it down at the moment. $3 appears to be a key level, so it will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

 

[Triathlete]

I always like to go back and see how a stock has unfolded to see whether the analysis has turned out correctly or not.

I find this really can help your confidence as far as what you expect the market or individual stocks to do.Telstra has been one of those stocks that has seemed to follow EW theory...

Back on the 27th Aug 2015 the long term view using Elliott wave was showing the start of a wave 2 by my calculations and was at $5.90 with a view that it could go as low as $2.55.

Looking at the closing price on Friday we are now at $3.08 it will be interesting to continue to watch what happens from here.

I agree with you on knowing the likely probabilities......and whether you are able to get them in your favour or not before you invest or trade..

I also like to trade on... "what I know and see and not what I think"

Here is another chart on TLS this time it is based on a longer term view using a monthly chart.

View attachment 64066

Time to sit and wait for a wave 3 turnaround me thinks. Of course the stock could still continue lower and then who knows we may get a move sideways for some time until we get some positive news on the stock which will start to propel the stock higher.....

 

[Triathlete]

Back on the 27th Aug 2015 the long term view using Elliott wave was showing the start of a wave 2 by my calculations and was at $5.90 with a view that it could go as low as $2.55.

Looks like the $2.55 is getting closer after today close.....How much further is Telstra going to fall??

Any views on the stock after the latest announcement.???

 

[greggles]

Looks like the $2.55 is getting closer after today close.....How much further is Telstra going to fall??

Any views on the stock after the latest announcement.???

I think it'll get back to that $2.55 low it reached at the end of 2010. It almost seems a bit inevitable when looking at a 10 year chart. TLS in a really competitive sector with slim margins and it has a lot of infrastructure to maintain. It will never be a growth stock again and there are so many other better opportunities out there IMO.

 

[fiftyeight]

Why do carriers allow companies like Boost to use their network? I work remote, so I have to be on the Telstra network, but I and most other people on site use Boost rather than the expensive Telstra plans. I imagine this would be similar in many small towns.

Metro I would still choose Boost as the coverage is great and for Spotify and youtube Boost is fast enough. Why spend the money on infrastructure to have the "best" network to then allow someone else to use your superior network and steal your market share gained from having the best network?