TLS - Telstra Corporation

[Miner]

Yep, pick a price level under $3.80 and accumulate without getting carried away or like you're in a hurry, cos this mite take a while, bottom could be close or 18 months away.

Thanks So Cynical for your endorsement of my strategy. I will try not to be impatient.

 

[Quant]

What I want to know is , has anyone made any money shorting this or is this a room of analysts . Given the conviction from a few in here I " hope " someone exploited the downside .

Oh and fwiw

I think at 12 x 2020 TLS ( $2.80 ) becomes compelling value for SMSF with sustainable grossed up yield of 10% VERY attractive , alerts are in at $3.00

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

top 20 aussie company

 

[Porper]

What I want to know is , has anyone made any money shorting this or is this a room of analysts . Given the conviction from a few in here I " hope " someone exploited the downside .

Both myself and Boggo disclosed our short positions months ago. I closed out a while ago as posted at the time. Not sure if Boggo is still holding...doing very nicely if he is.

The patterns lack symmetry for me so no intention of trading again any time soon.

 

[MrChow]

Could say it's not bad value at $3.50 at a 2020 PE of 13 with a 7% grossed up yield.

But that assumes no economic cycle bottom by 2021 with TLS at 10 PE or starting with a $2...

And the business case assumes once the rebase happens TLS can at least maintain earnings.

 

[galumay]

The news just gets worse for Tel$tra, it has dropped plan to securitise receivables from NBN after NBN said they would not approve it.

 

[pinkboy]

The news just gets worse for Tel$tra, it has dropped plan to securitise receivables from NBN after NBN said they would not approve it.

Coincidence the bad news masked on ex div day....

pinkboy

 

[skc]

The news just gets worse for Tel$tra, it has dropped plan to securitise receivables from NBN after NBN said they would not approve it.

I am confused why does the NBN need to approve it... what TLS does with it's current and future cashflow sounds like TLS's business.

It is actually not that much of a game changer. The real difference is a bit of interest arbitrage and a general good feeling of getting a lump sum to nurse the big dividend cut. It may change the buyback prospective but that seems secondary.

TLS still has lots of cashflow. The problem is where can they invest it (in meaningful size) to make good returns. Their record is patchy at best... they bought crap like The Trading Post, but they did get a win in that Chinese online business (the name escapes me at present). The mistake of course is that they took profit on that business and used it to buyback TLS shares! So I have no idea whether it's a good thing or not if TLS can't do buyback with the NBN securitisation proceed...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

TLS need to make a huge special dividend to restore value in their stock. Otherwise the shorts will crucify it.

 

[sptrawler]

TLS need to make a huge special dividend to restore value in their stock. Otherwise the shorts will crucify it.

My guess is it has gone past that, the churn to other telcos with the NBN, will cause a stampede from their mobile service next.
Once people have broken the bond with their landline and email address, the migration from their mobile service will happen, at end of contract.
Telstra has waited too long to address the impending train wreck, they still are perceived as a high cost service and other providers are waiting to pounce. IMO it is game over and a new sp floor has to be found, that will take some time. Like I said just my opinion.
I have off loaded all my TLS.

 

[MrChow]

I made a significant error in my information.

TLS revealed underlying earnings for 2017 were 25c with a further -25% hit from NBN to come.

(That is much worse than my own illustration where I used pre-NBN earnings of 33c EPS as the starting base).

So this would now take us down to 19c EPS / offset by projects aiming for 4c EPS = 23c EPS in 2021 post-NBN completion.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Seems to have bounced up today.

gg

 

[Miner]

Seems to have bounced up today.

gg

short term or sustainable bounce?

 

[Boggo]

sptrawer, Triathlete and others following TLS progression, updated follow on from when we were looking at a distant projection back here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-105#post-953754

First close into the blue today, timewise too into the Sept Oct area.

Downward trend shows no sign of abating, Triathlete your next level may not be far off !!!

 

[sptrawler]

sptrawer, Triathlete and others following TLS progression, updated follow on from when we were looking at a distant projection back here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-105#post-953754

First close into the blue today, timewise too into the Sept Oct area.

Downward trend shows no sign of abating, Triathlete your next level may not be far off !!!

View attachment 72872

You were spot on Boggo, I tend to think Triathlete's idea of the $2.80 mark, will be the settling area.
They really are rudderless ATM, so it will depend a lot on where there earnings slide stops, then a sustainable dividend yield and P/E will become obvious.
They really have lost control of the "footy", so to speak.
Thanks for all the charts and explanations posted Boggo, they were much appreciated.

 

[So_Cynical]

Entered yesterday - sub 3.50 is about right, i like the Belong strategy, a low price point (budget) alternative...i like stocks in transition.

 

[sptrawler]

The Chairman's report isn't good reading, no new growth engine, just more of the same and hope they deliver it better than the opposition.

Mobile subscriber price per megabyte fell 99%, in the last 8 years and still trending down.
NBN roll out accelerated post 2013, will be a $3billion hit to earnings.
Fourth mobile phone network, to bring prices down further.
Yikes!!

 

[Jimbo55]

Morning, afternoon, evening!
I’m a newby. Not much in experience. I wanted to get my feet wet and start off with a trade with Telstra. What does everyone think about these buys? I know there is a lot of negative sentiment out there about Telstra, especially with the drop in dividend payouts, but the price seems pretty low, and I’m happy to wait 10+ years for a return. Right now seems to be the lowest price point in years. Do people think it will drop any further?! Is this stock too risky or worth a punt?! I really only want to concentrate on big name stocks (foolish some might say) as it will be easier for me to follow any stock market chatter whether to buy sell or hold these big name stocks going into the future.....

 

[Triathlete]

Morning, afternoon, evening!
I’m a newby. Not much in experience. I wanted to get my feet wet and start off with a trade with Telstra. What does everyone think about these buys? I know there is a lot of negative sentiment out there about Telstra, especially with the drop in dividend payouts, but the price seems pretty low, and I’m happy to wait 10+ years for a return. Right now seems to be the lowest price point in years. Do people think it will drop any further?! Is this stock too risky or worth a punt?! I really only want to concentrate on big name stocks (foolish some might say) as it will be easier for me to follow any stock market chatter whether to buy sell or hold these big name stocks going into the future.....

Even though Telstra has dropped in price significantly we cannot be sure if we are at the bottom just yet, there are still signs that a move towards $2.50 is possible just as a move up from these levels is possible.

I would start by reading this thread from 2015 to understand how some of the ASF community had been seeing Telstra in there view it makes interesting reading as well as some explanations with charts.
I would suggest that you spend time learning about Fundamentals and Technicals before investing your hard earned money in any stock.

and I’m happy to wait 10+ years for a return.

This is not the way to look at investing in my opinion. you need to look for companies that are growing into the future and if they also pay a dividend that is a bonus. You need to look at companies that will make returns on your investment each and every year....
Good Luck.

 

[Jimbo55]

Even though Telstra has dropped in price significantly we cannot be sure if we are at the bottom just yet, there are still signs that a move towards $2.50 is possible just as a move up from these levels is possible.

I would start by reading this thread from 2015 to understand how some of the ASF community had been seeing Telstra in there view it makes interesting reading as well as some explanations with charts.
I would suggest that you spend time learning about Fundamentals and Technicals before investing your hard earned money in any stock.
This is not the way to look at investing in my opinion. you need to look for companies that are growing into the future and if they also pay a dividend that is a bonus. You need to look at companies that will make returns on your investment each and every year....
Good Luck.

I will certainly spend some time reading through the thread. I didn’t really have much planned for the weekend anyway
Does anyone else want to put in their two cents regarding Telstra shares ?