TLS - Telstra Corporation

[skc]

There's also no reason why live sport is immune from streaming. Optus flopped with the EPL, but give it a few years and Foxtel could be totally redundant for anything more than re-runs of the Real Housewives of Dubbo.

The NBA has a great streaming service for all the basketball any fan would ever want to watch.. and that costs ~$200 for the entire season. It doesn't take a lot of technological innovation to stream and it doesn't take much marketing to reach your audience - who are fans to start with. I am guessing that, there is still a lot of organisational momentum behind the massive cash inflow from broadcast rights each year, and they can't be sure that streaming revenue can match that. Plus it's always good to have more than one party bidding for your product, as in the case with the rights auctions.

 

[McLovin]

The NBA has a great streaming service for all the basketball any fan would ever want to watch.. and that costs ~$200 for the entire season. It doesn't take a lot of technological innovation to stream and it doesn't take much marketing to reach your audience - who are fans to start with. I am guessing that, there is still a lot of organisational momentum behind the massive cash inflow from broadcast rights each year, and they can't be sure that streaming revenue can match that. Plus it's always good to have more than one party bidding for your product, as in the case with the rights auctions.

I don't think the issue is a tech one it's just a total shift in how sport has been sold for the last 70 years.

Does the NBA sell that subsciption or is through whoever owns the TV rights? I watch a fair bit of sport and there are things I'd buy a subscription to (cricket, NRL, test match rugby, PGA Tour) but there are also a lot of other sports that I watch but wouldn't buy a subscription to. There are a lot of casual fans out there which is the strength of the Fox sports offering, imo.

 

[MrChow]

The 3 FTA channels combined make up only 4% of TLS market cap. So even if Telstra got them to double in value in 4 years, it's only 1% growth p.a for TLS. Simiarly a takeover of a 2nd tier telco like VOC (hypothetically) would be the same maths.

So they're going to have to get creative with a blackhole in the range of -40% in the medium term from NBN / Fixed Line Decline / Mobile Metro Competition / Regional Roaming. I remember hearing them talking about being a technology company in the future so that could be just about anything with any consequential result.

 

[McLovin]

The 3 FTA channels combined make up only 4% of TLS market cap. So even if Telstra got them to double in value in 4 years, it's only 1% growth p.a for TLS. Simiarly a takeover of a 2nd tier telco like VOC (hypothetically) would be the same maths.

I doubt TLS, or anyone really, has any interest in buying an FTA. They're dying. TEN was the canary in the coal mine because of its demographic skew, but just look at the numbers that win the ratings these days and compare it to 8 or so years ago. There's a reason they run endless news and reality TV these days – it's cheap. Advertisers still like the reach of TV, but at some point on the horizon the penny will drop.

As for buying another telco, not gonna happen. The ACCC will smack it down before it even starts.

 

[sptrawler]

As we have said, they will have to pull a 'rabbit out of the hat', or the slow decline will be inevitable

 

[Smurf1976]

just look at the numbers that win the ratings these days

Back in the old days it wasn't unknown that 3 million or more watched the same program on TV and we had a significantly smaller national population back then too.

So there's a shift definitely.

 

[sptrawler]

Back in the old days it wasn't unknown that 3 million or more watched the same program on TV and we had a significantly smaller national population back then too.

We had a lot less channels back then, also.

 

[Boggo]

If you are not into squiggly lines skip this post or if you are into EW we can take the squiggly line discussion to the appropriate thread.

If you are wondering about what the price could do then this is one of the options I am looking at, purely as an exercise of course.

Weekly chart...

 

[sptrawler]

Well a lot of fund managers, will try and crank it up, before bailing.IMO
So it will be interesting to see, how your chart plays out.
The problem, as I see it is, there is nothing but negatives supporting the price.
Then management asks the share holders, what do you think we should do, jeez why are we paying them ridiculous wages?
Telstra will end up at a price that reflects its earnings, we just have to work out what the earnings will be.

 

[Boggo]

Well a lot of fund managers, will try and crank it up, before bailing.IMO
So it will be interesting to see, how your chart plays out.
The problem, as I see it is, there is nothing but negatives supporting the price.
Then management asks the share holders, what do you think we should do, jeez why are we paying them ridiculous wages?
Telstra will end up at a price that reflects its earnings, we just have to work out what the earnings will be.

Yes, a fun exercise watching TLS price behaviour especially as a former customer who attempted to point out what their opposition was offering and was met with their "but we are Telstra" attitude.

I am going to miss buying into their instalment warrants weeks before they went ex div and collecting the dividend and credits x 4.
Too risky to engage in that process now with the downside pressure.

 

[Triathlete]

If you are not into squiggly lines skip this post or if you are into EW we can take the squiggly line discussion to the appropriate thread.

If you are wondering about what the price could do then this is one of the options I am looking at, purely as an exercise of course.

Weekly chart...
View attachment 70750

I like these type of exercises Boggo as it keeps the T/As on their toes...I reckon a lot of people have been caught out by the drop in TLS and Vocus as well as TPM and our now trying to recover some of their positions.

If you get a chance can you put your view with Vocus as well as an exercise so we can see how the TA plays out.

The price rallied in vocus yesterday and I have a feeling it may get pushed back up to the $4.70-$4.83 range before another sell off is my opinion depends how nervous they get .. Time will tell though..!

 

[McLovin]

Back in the old days it wasn't unknown that 3 million or more watched the same program on TV and we had a significantly smaller national population back then too.

So there's a shift definitely.

There's a stat floating around that 1/3rd of 14-29 year olds in Australia never watch TV. That's the future of television. It explains why TEN felt it first.

 

[Porper]

There's a stat floating around that 1/3rd of 14-29 year olds in Australia never watch TV. That's the future of television. It explains why TEN felt it first.

Not sure what it's like in Oz but in NZ there are now as many adverts as programmes. Towards the end of a film you'll get 5 mins followed by 5 mins of adverts. We record everything so never watch adverts which is something almost everybody I know does. It's a joke...SKY channels are even worse.

Regarding TLS...out on open this morning. Yesterday saw demand return, even though it could well only be a bounce unfolding.

 

[nulla nulla]

Nice run up today, I was half expecting the buyers from $4.00 to be taking their profits and for the price to stagnate or drop back. The inter-day volumes suggest there was strong demand. Tomorrow will be interesting as to whether there is a sell off prior to the weekend or whether there is enough demand to push the share price higher.

 

[sptrawler]

They seemed to run out of puff at about $4.20, given the market really bounced today, a 3c rise wasn't really inspiring.

 

[Boggo]

They seemed to run out of puff at about $4.20, given the market really bounced today, a 3c rise wasn't really inspiring.

Watched that for a little while today, some subtle offloading happening there with around 50% increase in daily volume selling into any upward momentum.

 

[sptrawler]

What would that indicate, from your understanding Boggo?
I am only starting to follow charting ideology, so would that indicate a lack of confidence, or just a lack of nerve?

 

[Boggo]

What would that indicate, from your understanding Boggo?
I am only starting to follow charting ideology, so would that indicate a lack of confidence, or just a lack of nerve?

No charting etc, just saw a bit of the live depth action. Every time it went up it got hit with selling pressure.
Small snapshot example of 1 second of past trades at $4.23 but watching the behaviour on the live depth action was more convincing imo.

 

[sptrawler]

So from my fundamental ideology(if that's what it is called), it would appear that there are willing sellers, at a rising price.
Therefore if the price rises and the volume drops, it would indicate the price will rise further because people don't want to sell? even though Telstra don't have a plan?
The alternative would be, the price rises and the volume rises, which would cause a price drop, because everyone is bailing out?
Hope you don't think I'm picking your brains, just trying to get a handle on charting, before July 1

 

[Boggo]

So from my fundamental ideology(if that's what it is called), it would appear that there are willing sellers, at a rising price.
Therefore if the price rises and the volume drops, it would indicate the price will rise further because people don't want to sell? even though Telstra don't have a plan?
The alternative would be, the price rises and the volume rises, which would cause a price drop, because everyone is bailing out?
Hope you don't think I'm picking your brains, just trying to get a handle on charting, before July 1

Yes, tech/a can explain it better in VSA terms than I can but you are on the right track.
Today there were more buyers than yesterday but there were equally more sellers who were happy to sell to them and as a consequence it went nowhere (closed where it opened) even though that market sector had a small gain (XTJ - about 0.6%).
Just one day is probably not a good measure but is a clue. The bit where I get lost is how to detect who is likely to give up first, buyers or sellers