Tipping Competition for Full CY 2015

Klogg · 10 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

My picks if I'm not too late:

SSM - Service Stream
DDR - Dicker Data
TSM - ThinkSmart (this dutch auction + on-market buyback shows how keen the Chairman is to maximise his portion of the earnings from the UK)
UOS - United Overseas (no real reason other than it's at a bigger discount to BV than normal)
BOL - Boom Logistics (even if resale of assets takes place at 30% lower than current book value, much $$$ to be made)

systematic · 10 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

needsajet said:
1. Some contestants chose less than 5 stocks. I suggest we equally weight whatever is picked. If it's one stock, 100% on that one. If it's 4 stocks then 25% each. For those who have picked 5 stocks, 20% each.

...Agreed - simplest way.

needsajet said:
2. Some choices are thinly traded. I suggest we start the value at the first trade after the chosen opening value. I suggest we do the final value on the last trade before our closing time.

...I know, I would've preferred everyone stick to a realistic minimum $ volume - the point (well, mine anyway) was to keep this real life. More so than the monthly comp. But that's too hard to control, so I agree with your suggestion to at least go with a real traded value after the comp starts. For mine, I'm going to revise my tips and make sure they all have $100k average daily $ volume.

Hopefully we get a few more people join in!

Logique · 11 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

needsajet said:
Will do and thanks for everyone's explanations of their picks.

I can see a couple of questions we'll need feedback about.

1. Some contestants chose less than 5 stocks. I suggest we equally weight whatever is picked. If it's one stock, 100% on that one. If it's 4 stocks then 25% each. For those who have picked 5 stocks, 20% each.....

I disagree Needsajet, this would just create unnecessary work for you, and undermine the overall test of stock picking ability. Pick 5 stocks or entry refused.

Let it be an equal footing from the start. It's a lot easier to jag a result on one or two stocks.

nulla nulla · 11 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Logique said:
I disagree Needsajet, this would just create unnecessary work for you, and undermine the overall test of stock picking ability. Pick 5 stocks or entry refused.

Let it be an equal footing from the start. It's a lot easier to jag a result on one or two stocks.

I agree with Logique.

1.The required number of shares should be five (5) as originally proposed:
2.As it is a competition for 2015, I consider that the closing price of 31 December 2014 should be the starting point and the finish be the closing price for 31 December 2015:
3.I recommend that the closing date for entrants should be Friday 16 January (certainly not later than the end of January):
4. The competition should be a straight comparison between the opening price and the closing price. Dividends should not be included as there are timing differences with stocks going exdiv and paying the div across the bourse:
5. No penny dreadfulls, the picks must come from at least the ASX300: and
6. Selections do not have to be unique.

Just my 2 Cents worth. I Joe wants to set a cut off point for entries I am happy to set up a spread sheet for the entrants and their choices and provide monthly updates in this thread.

nulla nulla · 11 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

These are the entries collated so far. If I have missed any please pipe up. Anyone that hasn't nominated five (5) shares please feel free to add them. So far there are about 64 shares chosen, the most popular being sto.

Name	First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth

Ariyahn2011	sto	rio	ooo	fgm
Bazmate	egp	jbh	qan	ipl	ben
Burglar	mep
evilk9	bpt
Garpel Gumnut	rio	bhp
hhse	org	ori	cwn	asl	fmg
issh	ajx	ipg	cwn	lng	sto
Klogg	ssm	ddr	tsm	uos	bol
Know the past	nwh	clt	vet	sbb	bol
Krackdawg	sxy
logique	amm	bhp	fmg	ilu	sto
Muschu	boq	gem	nvt	wes	min
nulla nulla	dxs	fdc	fmg	nvn	scp
Paavfc	aek	enr	rdm	sgq	tpp
PinkBoy	boq	wes	anz	cba	iag
PurpleSX2	ahz	blt	aei	eos	avx
Robusta	dna	icq	ipp	nvt	srx
ROE	rfg	sul	orl	siq	ved
skc	ari	sea	qbg	mcs	idt
Smurf1976	bpt	osh	sto	wpl
Systematic	apn	aiz	asb	rex	lau
tinhat	tgs	cdu	gem	hzn	flt
Umike	bhp	cvn	kcn	pan	qbg

Chipmunk3d · 11 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

My tips are 1.AJX a huge potential
2. NEU awaiting FDA approval
3. IPH leaders in intellectual property law
4. OSH. Oversold low cost producer
5. VOC synergies with AMM marriage

nulla nulla · 11 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Chipmunk3d said:
My tips are 1.AJX a huge potential
2. NEU awaiting FDA approval
3. IPH leaders in intellectual property law
4. OSH. Oversold low cost producer
5. VOC synergies with AMM marriage

Welcome Chipmunk3d and congratulations on your first post (after 18 months lurking, well done) .

needsajet · 12 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

nulla nulla said:
I agree with Logique.

1.The required number of shares should be five (5) as originally proposed:
2.As it is a competition for 2015, I consider that the closing price of 31 December 2014 should be the starting point and the finish be the closing price for 31 December 2015:
3.I recommend that the closing date for entrants should be Friday 16 January (certainly not later than the end of January):
4. The competition should be a straight comparison between the opening price and the closing price. Dividends should not be included as there are timing differences with stocks going exdiv and paying the div across the bourse:
5. No penny dreadfulls, the picks must come from at least the ASX300: and
6. Selections do not have to be unique.

Just my 2 Cents worth. I Joe wants to set a cut off point for entries I am happy to set up a spread sheet for the entrants and their choices and provide monthly updates in this thread.

That's great, thanks, nulla nulla. Happy to defer. I'll send my picks by the deadline.

shouldaindex · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Haven't put much thought into this but going by some criteria I use:

- FLT
- TRS
- EAX
- MVF
- TOX

If you look at Effecient Market Hypothesis, the best pockets to counter this is with extreme behavioural psychology. So all 5 have had panic selloffs and 30% or more off their peaks, and as a bonus a few have established a floor so not to have to guess extreme behaviours.

Then looking at what will take the SP up apart, I'm looking at EPS expectations and think there are upsides if there are any surprises in EPS for the coming year.

My expectation on my predictions is that 2 or 3 will fulfill my reasoning, and hopefully the others do mediocre enough, so overall there's an above market return.

burglar · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

nulla nulla said:
... 5. No penny dreadfulls, the picks must come from at least the ASX300 ...

Disagree with "the picks must come from at least the ASX300"

This unduly favours Value Investors and lovers of Large Caps.

Now I have to decide if I will graciously accede or acrimoniously withdraw.

List for ASX300:

http://www.asx.com.au/documents/resources/sp_asx_300_v3.pdf

Ok My revised picks:

AGO ATLAS IRON LIMITED

BCI BC IRON LIMITED

FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

FMS FLINDERS MINES LIMITED

GBG GINDALBIE METALS LTD

KnowThePast · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

burglar said:
Disagree with "the picks must come from at least the ASX300"

This unduly favours Value Investors and lovers of Large Caps.

I agree, I would like to see entire ASX in the comp. I think it was a good suggestion to take first traded price, rather than closing price to make it fair.

jbocker · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Hey if its not too late...
Could I please enter

STO
MRM
SWM
NWH
WPL

nulla nulla · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

burglar said:
Disagree with "the picks must come from at least the ASX300"

This unduly favours Value Investors and lovers of Large Caps.

Now I have to decide if I will graciously accede or acrimoniously withdraw.

List for ASX300:

http://www.asx.com.au/documents/resources/sp_asx_300_v3.pdf

Ok My revised picks:

AGO ATLAS IRON LIMITED

BCI BC IRON LIMITED

FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

FMS FLINDERS MINES LIMITED

GBG GINDALBIE METALS LTD

View attachment 61085 View attachment 61086 View attachment 61087 View attachment 61088 View attachment 61089

Feel free to ignore the ASX300 suggestion. Several others have and have nominated shares of, how shall I put it, extremely low value.

nulla nulla · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

The updated list of tips follows. Burglar, do you want to substitute "mep" in place of one of your asx picks?

Name	First	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth

Ariyahn2011	fgm	ooo	rio	sto
Bazmate	ben	egp	ipl	jbh	qan
Burglar	ago	bci	fmg	fms	gbg
Chipmunk3d	ajx	iph	neu	osh	voc
evilk9	bpt
Garpel Gumnut	bhp	rio
hhse	asl	cwn	fmg	org	ori
issh	ajx	cwn	ipg	lng	sto
jbocker	mrm	nwh	sto	swm	wpl
Klogg	bol	ddr	ssm	tsm	uos
Know the past	bol	clt	nwh	sbb	vet
Krackdawg	sxy
logique	amm	bhp	fmg	ilu	sto
Muschu	boq	gem	min	nvt	wes
nulla nulla	dxs	fdc	fmg	nvn	scp
Paavfc	aek	enr	rdm	sgq	tpp
PinkBoy	anz	boq	cba	iag	wes
PurpleSX2	aei	ahz	avx	blt	eos
Robusta	dna	icq	ipp	nvt	srx
ROE	orl	rfg	siq	sul	ved
shouldaindex	eax	flt	mvf	tox	trs
skc	ari	idt	mcs	qbg	sea
Smurf1976	bpt	osh	sto	wpl
Systematic	aiz	apn	asb	lau	rex
tinhat	cdu	flt	gem	hzn	tgs
Umike	bhp	cvn	kcn	pan	qbg

systematic · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

nulla nulla,

Thanks for doing this. As you are prepared to put the work in, your rules are the ones we go by in my book (as they keep to the spirit of the comp anyway).

Understand re: the dividends (the individual can always reply to the thread down the track to post the "with dividends" return)

Pity about the volume or index requirement. Too hard to enforce / manage for you. I mean it's a pity that people don't consider that when posting their picks. I really wanted it to be a comp where people would / are actually buying these stocks - i.e. realistic volumes. Nothing can be done about that - I just note that it's a pity, because of course, when you compete in the monthly comp there are advantages to not being "real life" in your picks.

I'm still going to make all my picks a reasonable min. volume.

My only suggestion nulla nulla is to post again to the thread with a closing date clearly marked. Mid or end Jan - whichever you want. You're the one putting the effort in - thanks again!

nulla nulla · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

systematic said:
nulla nulla,

Thanks for doing this. As you are prepared to put the work in, your rules are the ones we go by in my book (as they keep to the spirit of the comp anyway).

....

My only suggestion nulla nulla is to post again to the thread with a closing date clearly marked. Mid or end Jan - whichever you want. You're the one putting the effort in - thanks again!

Nominations can close At Midnight Friday 16 January 2015. That way I can finalise the lists etc over the weekend.

The Falcon · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Nulla, I'm in ;

ELD
STO
SVW
ORG
WOW

pixel · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Thanks for volunteering, nulla nulla

AAC - looks like a continuation breakout; hopefully following through
DRM - assuming gold will recover more quickly than other materials
RIC - more and more people want to eat more and better
TLG - because Sweden is less risky than Mozambique; it's also closer to Market
WOR - as a proxy for oil and gas, should the segment pick up during 2015

peter2 · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

Tips for 2015: (No spec's, all > 1.00)

TOL: Will benefit from an improving economic outlook, long before the economy actually does improve
OSH: + WPL: Oversold with political interference of the oil price, normal oil supply/demand dynamics should resume during the year.
HSN: Will benefit from ongoing need for the utility suppliers to make their billing more complex in order to improve their margins.
SMX: Should benefit from demand for technology to drive improvements in productivity.

Logique · 13 January 2015

Re: Tips for 2015

nulla nulla said:
I agree with Logique.

1.The required number of shares should be five (5) as originally proposed:
2.As it is a competition for 2015, I consider that the closing price of 31 December 2014 should be the starting point and the finish be the closing price for 31 December 2015:
3.I recommend that the closing date for entrants should be Friday 16 January (certainly not later than the end of January):
4. The competition should be a straight comparison between the opening price and the closing price. Dividends should not be included as there are timing differences with stocks going exdiv and paying the div across the bourse:
5. No penny dreadfulls, the picks must come from at least the ASX300: and
6. Selections do not have to be unique.

Just my 2 Cents worth. I Joe wants to set a cut off point for entries I am happy to set up a spread sheet for the entrants and their choices and provide monthly updates in this thread.

Thanks for the offer Nulla Nulla, no problem with your 1. to 6.

Tipping Competition for Full CY 2015

Klogg

systematic

Logique

Investor

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

Chipmunk3d

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

needsajet

shouldaindex

burglar

KnowThePast

jbocker

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

systematic

nulla nulla

Positive Expectancy

The Falcon

pixel

DIY Trader

peter2

Logique

Investor

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