TIE - Tietto Minerals

[Sean K]

Lost count of the number of 100+ gold gram meters from infill drilling.

Interesting that they're still not 100% right to go with mining at this stage with a final regulatory step to go. Must be pretty confident this is just routine.

"The Company is negotiating the final regulatory step, the Abujar Mining Convention, with the Ivorian Government, having already secured all mining and environmental approvals."

 

[Sean K]

This has been good since breaking up last September. I thought there'd be more resistance at 58, but now should be a little at 61ish. Should be support at 53ish during any consolidation in the short term. The only thing I can bring this run to is that it seemed to be undervalued, and they've de-risked with the good infill drilling and finance. Further upside may come from extension drilling and potential for surprise in the next MRE due this quarter.

 

[Sean K]

TIE chart is following through on the big rounded bottom identified in Sep last year and turning into a big cup. Some resistance around this zone and needs to consolidate a bit, but it looks promising. Maybe we'll see a handle appear in the next few months. I'd prefer it just keep going, but will be interesting to see how it unfolds nonetheless.

 

[Sean K]

Seems TIE are going to just keep pumping out assay results as they get them and they're dribbling in, instead of in big batches.

Another 200+ ggm intersection in the infill drilling. Nice. Wish they were wider though.

How good does 25m@131g/t look in the picture below.

 

[Sean K]

I'm liking these updates. Must be going to come monthly to ease concerns about the seemingly aggressive timetable. Hopefully they'll be able to put higher gold prices into any updated DFS assumptions (US$1,700/oz) later this year as well.

 

[mullokintyre]

More updates out this morning re the high grades they have found.
Rather surprising that this stock has fallen from recent highs given the increases in gold prices as well as the updates.
Will add some more if it gets back to the 50 mark.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

More updates out this morning re the high grades they have found.
Rather surprising that this stock has fallen from recent highs given the increases in gold prices as well as the updates.
Will add some more if it gets back to the 50 mark.
Mick

Yes, very good infill drilling results again. 500 gold gram meters is exceptional. When I first started looking at this I didn't actually realise they had such high grades at shallow depth.

Good exploration drilling too. 100,000m more drilling for 2022 potentially means a significant resource upgrade later this year. Potentially a new significant load is sitting there along the Abujar Shear waiting to appear.

Resource model update due by end of March.

 

[Sean K]

TIE coming up against resistance level again. Good support level formed at 54c ish along 20dma.

Gold price significant rise and extension drilling is going to significantly change DFS metrics once adjusted in the FID report. (If they produce an update - they are already building the mine...) They used just $1400 POG in the DFS. LOM and ore reserves should be raised also.

Not sure if the market is fully factoring in the potential increases to the NPV of this. If they do mine 260Koz in the first year they might even pay off the debt in 9 months instead of 12. Would love to know the NPV on $2000 gold. I estimate about $1.2b.

 

[mullokintyre]

TIE announced that mine construction is still on track.
It was an ambitious timeline, but so far they seem to be pulling it off.
All the hard technical bits still to come, but the Sag mill looks to be well under way.
Looking ok for the time being.
Unfortunately, it never got down near 50 that would have caused me to buy more.
Mick

 

[Boggo]

That popped up in my scans a while ago.

(click to expand)

 

[Sean K]

TIE announced that mine construction is still on track.
It was an ambitious timeline, but so far they seem to be pulling it off.
All the hard technical bits still to come, but the Sag mill looks to be well under way.
Looking ok for the time being.
Unfortunately, it never got down near 50 that would have caused me to buy more.
Mick

Yes, good news. Happy with a monthly update but we don't have the detailed works schedule, so we'll just have to believe them.

At current SP still around a $400m MC. Still some risk I suppose, but assume they get to production by the end of the year, I wonder what a fairer MC is for someone starting to produce over 200K ounces pa? Might depend on POG by the end of the year too I suppose.

 

[mullokintyre]

Tie in trading halt pending "major capital raising".
This came as a bit of a surprise to me, had not read anything that seemed to indicate they would need more cash.
Perhaps the cost of the mine has blown out of all proportion.
Whatever the reason for the cap raise is, its highly likely to be at a discount to most recent share price, which means the SP will drop sharply on commencement of trading after the TH.
Bugger.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Tie in trading halt pending "major capital raising".
This came as a bit of a surprise to me, had not read anything that seemed to indicate they would need more cash.
Perhaps the cost of the mine has blown out of all proportion.
Whatever the reason for the cap raise is, its highly likely to be at a discount to most recent share price, which means the SP will drop sharply on commencement of trading after the TH.
Bugger.
Mick

This is way out of left field. Something has gone wrong with the 'fully funded to production' tag. Maybe they've dumped the debt facility and gone for dilution, or Taurus have decided not to go through with it, for whatever reason.

I hope it's only around the 15% discount mark to the last 2 weeks trading, and holders get a piece of the pie at the discount.

 

[Sean K]

No cheap shares for current holders. :-(

I wonder why they didn't do this in the first place instead of going with Taurus for debt. Maybe the last few months infill drilling has removed risk and made it possible to find new investors.

I guess we'll be hovering back around the 50c mark for a bit, unless this is seen as a much better deal than the debt and completely de-risks development.

Interesting metrics attached to the ann. Note DFS done at $1400 POG. POG probably has a 2 in front of it next year so this is going to be a money printer in it's first year.

 

[Sean K]

No cheap shares for current holders. :-(


I guess we'll be hovering back around the 50c mark for a bit, unless this is seen as a much better deal than the debt and completely de-risks development.

Nice sell-off this am to just about the placement price, so I got some cheap shares anyway.

 

[Sean K]

New presentation out here.

Interesting that they're saying they're going to have an updated MRE out in Q1 CY22. It's the 30th of March...

EV $300m and they're going to make $100m pa on $1800 POG...

 

[mullokintyre]

Had some of my bid filled at 51.
Will leave it there in hope.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Had some of my bid filled at 51.
Will leave it there in hope.
Mick

Looks like you might have got filled. I bought some more down here too.

I think the market is asleep at the wheel with this puppy. The basic sums on EV v production numbers and earnings are nuts.

Would have to be something black swan-like to crash this party.

 

[mullokintyre]

Looks like you might have got filled. I bought some more down here too.

I think the market is asleep at the wheel with this puppy. The basic sums on EV v production numbers and earnings are nuts.

Would have to be something black swan-like to crash this party.

Been outside picking the Shiraz grapes, so was not watching, but got my fill.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Been outside picking the Shiraz grapes, so was not watching, but got my fill.
Mick

This little green hammer today looks like some positive buying. 50 should have been the floor I guess, all else been equal.