TIE - Tietto Minerals

[Sean K]

Feel free to share your top 10, if the notion takes you

Ooops, I cocked up the list due to a misalignment. It was CTM he gave a 5 for and had 'no opinion' on TIE.

 

[Miner]

Feel free to share your top 10, if the notion takes you

@kennas - thanks for sharing.
Which were the rest 9 and their ranking from Rick ?

 

[Sean K]

@kennas - thanks for sharing.
Which were the rest 9 and their ranking from Rick ?

These weren't in order and I was only interested in explorers/developers less ALK which I'm only interested in for Boda. I don't think he gives out much higher than a 4. In fact, if you google Rick Rule Rankings you probably won't find anything higher than 4.

 

[The Triangle]

Tieto reached a peak of 38 cents right around D&D when it was being 'pumped' for a 'takeover' Tieto is now 31 cents. ASIC really needs to get a handle on these rogue agents who spruke up these potential 'deals' I remember earlier days of BGL when there were all the 'rumours' northern star were going to take it over...

Anyhow. TIE back to an interesting valuation level. I'm still concerned the grades are a little too low to support an underground mine in the later years.

Side note, love having an Asian MD. I recon the company takes a huge hit because of all the racists who won't touch it . Won't be surprised to see this slip back to high 20s.

 

[Sean K]

Tieto reached a peak of 38 cents right around D&D when it was being 'pumped' for a 'takeover' Tieto is now 31 cents. ASIC really needs to get a handle on these rogue agents who spruke up these potential 'deals' I remember earlier days of BGL when there were all the 'rumours' northern star were going to take it over...

Anyhow. TIE back to an interesting valuation level. I'm still concerned the grades are a little too low to support an underground mine in the later years.

Side note, love having an Asian MD. I recon the company takes a huge hit because of all the racists who won't touch it . Won't be surprised to see this slip back to high 20s.

Didn't see the rumours but there's always chance of consolidation in West Africa. MC now down to $136m with $45m in the bank, EV$91m with 3.35m oz au JORC. PFS didn't look too bad to me. Any idea what's wrong with it?

 

[Miner]

Didn't see the rumours but there's always chance of consolidation in West Africa. MC now down to $136m with $45m in the bank, EV$91m with 3.35m oz au JORC. PFS didn't look too bad to me. Any idea what's wrong with it?

View attachment 129236

Asian face in an Australian as @Triangle jokingly mentioned.
Thankfully it is not true otherwise mqg3, ncm, Google will not fly

 

[The Triangle]

Asian face in an Australian as @Triangle jokingly mentioned.
Thankfully it is not true otherwise mqg3, ncm, Google will not fly

Sadly I was dead serious. I know people who will not invest because they look at someones name and skin colour. But that's their choice and their loss. It's much more common with small companies where racist HNWs invest. No one will care at a big company.

Didn't see the rumours but there's always chance of consolidation in West Africa. MC now down to $136m with $45m in the bank, EV$91m with 3.35m oz au JORC. PFS didn't look too bad to me. Any idea what's wrong with it?

Nothing wrong with the PFS. Just nothing to get excited over. As mentioned I prefer an 8% discount rate. That would have a 25% reduction in NPV by my estimate. Also I don’t like the underground option in year 6. Capex for that is $300/oz, and @ 50,000t/month the 3.5mta mill will become inefficient. In that underground plan picture there is a lot of blank space. The additional ounces sit at about 15% of total, so it’s insignificant but it seems to increase the NPV by $60 million. With my calculations I can only get $30 million.

I only consider the numbers in slide 32 of the recent release for the OP only. Which if I apply my 8% I would get a base case NPV of around $280 million. Valuing TIE market cap at 50% of a PFS NPV in Africa is very fair. 30% of EV is on the cheaper side for me, hence my interest. Of course if you look at using todays gold price things are much nicer. I do expect a BFS to show an expanded open pit option, longer life, a higher assumed gold price, and higher capex.

 

[Sean K]

TIE chart looks interesting. Big rounded bottom and looks like it might break some significant downward/horizontal resistance.

Been producing some excellent high grade infill drilling results over the past month.

 

[Sean K]

In TH for the release of the DFS on AGP before Tuesday open.

Can't see there being any upward surprises in this unlike the PDI MRE.

Current EV still only $100m with 3.35Moz just doesn't make sense to me, even with a WA discount. Looks cheap.

PDI just release initial MRE of 3.6Moz and now has EV of $240m. That's gunna grow but TIE way more advanced.

SP stopped at resistance across 38c.

 

[Miner]

With TH @Joe Blow , would my tip be valid ?

 

[Sean K]

With TH @Joe Blow , would my tip be valid ?

I think so.

Hopefully these numbers are good. Looks like most are better than the PFS.

Open pit producing over 200k oz is pretty impressive. Payback less than 1 year.

Current EV of $100m looks silly.

 

[Sean K]

Looks to have held from the brake up. Hopefully holds above 40c. Decided to take a position on the numbers of the DFS and comparing to PDI who now has an MC of $330m compared to this at about $100m. Similar resources. PDI maybe has more potential for growth from what I can see but TIE more advanced and hasn't had a coup recently. A doubling in present MC couldn't be out of the question compared to PDI.

 

[Sean K]

Excellent infill results. There's some fantastic grades at length in the middle of this deposit. Would like to see some extension drilling or exploration success to increase the LOM. It's lacking longevity at the moment. They either need to find some more ounces or buy another gold explorer heading to production so they have a life after this deposit.

Chart wise, break up continues, hitting resistance around 47c.

 

[Sean K]

Resistance at 47-48c proving a little bit of a challenge, but you'd expect some more significant consolidation at some point. Had an amazing run from 30c. Volume looks like supply coming off.

Not sure what's due next and when. The drilling program is ongoing so hopefully there's just a steady stream of news to keep it bubbling along.

Canaccord report back in July had a 60c target on this with no time frame. When's it going to 60c Canaccord? 11 Apr 2022?

 

[Sean K]

Resistance across 47-48 proving tough. Come on TIE!

Some good infill results out. Some spectacular grades in this open pit. Don't need to dig much of that up to make $$.

Would like some extension drilling with those types of grades, thanks.

Message for Francis - have you checked that you're not drilling in a national park here?

 

[Sean K]

Yikes! Has anything fundamentally changed in the past 2 weeks? Obviously that resistance level (market cap value?) is too tough to get through right now. Not sure what else they have to do to get through there. Another discovery - take over spec?

MC back down below $200m getting back to buy territory. Would normally expect this support to hold, but it's diving fast.

 

[Sean K]

Bouncing off support today, probably helped by me topping up on this dip. lol

Trying to work out any fundamental reason for the drop but can't find anything except delays in assays that were supposed to be delivered by end of Oct. From the last drilling ann pasted above is below. Maybe what they meant was that just the drilling was to be finished, not assays delivered...

So, perhaps they didn't deliver on that and from what I can tell in their quarterly, they've hidden three drill results in there that I can't find, because they now state they have 77 holes outstanding - see paste out of quarterly below. Looks like the remaining holes will come in soonish but by end of Nov in order to have the MRE upgrade by end of year. Hopefully they don't miss that mark. Not sure how much more gold they will have in total including extensions around the current pit and under it. Would be nice if they got over 3.5m and closer to the 4m oz mark and increased the confidence in the high grade core.

 

[Sean K]

TIE funding for development looks wrapped up which will further de-risk progress to first gold pour late next year. Good work so quickly progressing after DFS. Now in a good phase of the Lassonde Curve moving to production where relative value is supposed to increase.

Bounced well off support mentioned above on 2 Nov, but has since come up against that strong line of resistance dating back some time. Will take some effort to break through that.

 

[Sean K]

My gold stocks are throwing up spanners today with TIE now in a TH for a CR. Hopefully at a decent price but holders get a stab at it if it's not. Will add to the above loan to get them to production next year I guess.

 

[Sean K]

Raising $70m at 39¢ per share. A 12.4 per cent discount to the last close, according to the term sheet sent to potential investors.

I didn't get a term sheet!! lol

I guess that means it'll re-open at 39c and I can buy some more at that price anyway.