TIE - Tietto Minerals

[Sean K]

Placement finalised in two tranches with the first to go through this month and the second after shareholder approval, so while this is essential to build the mine, I anticipate it's going to be held back to the 39c ish level for a bit while it all goes through. Unless POG goes nuts...

Now well into the development phase of the Lassonde Curve where the project is de-risked and should increase in relative value. Somewhere around the blue circle at the moment, so all else being equal it should appreciate up to first pour.

 

[finicky]

 

[Sean K]

GPR looks good. eeeeeek

Not sure why he doesn't like TIE's economics. I've heard him poo poo it before but he seems to just have a thing with it.

 

[Sean K]

Some good infil results providing more confidence to the initial MRE, although when you look at the table there's a lot of holes with not much gold in them.... More interesting to me is potential upside from extension drilling to increase LOM or potentially maintain higher production rates than in the DFS. If they could start and maintain 250K oz pa for longer that would be a nice result. Not many mines doing those numbers.

 

[Sean K]

TIE has held up well after the announcements of the funding details. Surprised it didn't head down to the placement price where I was hoping to add some more. Still looks undervalued for this part of the development cycle and I'm more confident in the high grade part of the resource with the infil drilling of late, plus UG potential to increase LOM or maintain a high throughput after Y1.

 

[Sean K]

More good infill results de-risking the first couple of years production.

Importantly, extension drilling keeps hitting yellow stuff well outside the DSF pits. More than 100 gram meters is outstanding, double that is another level. Should be a very handy MRE upgrade in Q1 of 22. I've yet to take a stab at how many extra ounces they've drilled already. The deposit is a bit all over the shop to gauge continuity of tonnage and grades. I'm just hoping it starts with a 4 in front of it.

 

[Sean K]

With the placement done at 39c this has held up well considering. Now funded to first gold pour by the end of next year, it's almost inexplicable that they still have a $250m MC and will dig up 260K ounces in 2024. Pay back in one year and then it's free cash.

I still think we're in that blue circle on the Lassonde Curve I noted a few posts ago, so value should increase all next year, all things being equal. This was 76c at the height of the POG run up, so if we get to new ATHs with POG, you'd expect this to follow simply based on that. But, it's more valuable now with the de-risking of the ore body, IMO.

 

[pabloran]

i think you are on the money sean

 

[finicky]

@Sean K looks like a breakout today

 

[pabloran]

if i understand this comp thing ,i have to state why i have selected it....followed it since early days at 6c....been to a number of meetings and imho a very good bet...cw is a shrewd operator and a person of high integrity....i have no doubts whatsoever unless of course gold or world markets crash....

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K looks like a breakout today

I thought 48c was going to be too tough, but it looks like she's through for now. Hopefully that becomes support. Probably just following the slight rise in gold or people have seen some value after the recent drilling results de-risking it a little. MC now about $300m. Not sure what the ceiling is. Technically, 60 should be next hurdle as long as this break up is supported.

 

[investtrader]

This is my new pick for 2022 comp(replaces SYR). Gold stock so insurance against general market downturn maybe. But I do like the long term chart pattern.

 

[Sean K]

This is my new pick for 2022 comp(replaces SYR). Gold stock so insurance against general market downturn maybe. But I do like the long term chart pattern.

That big rounded bottom was what initially drew me to this from a TA point of view and it's been breaking up, finding support and breaking up like clockwork. That now makes me a little nervous as things should not go to plan like this has... lol

Gold has to get out of this big pennant at some stage this year I think and should break up. I'm not sure what the catalyst will be; perhaps inflation heading towards 10%, a flight out of risky assets, conflict, or crypto currency shock.

 

[pabloran]

interesting to see if any of the latest converted options sell in next week or so.....if not i can see this jumping into the sixties...the price has moved rapidly on many occasions....top 40 would be handy.....hoping supply drying up and correction coming

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K looks like a breakout today

29 Dec definitely the breakout day and then testing the new support to go again. Lovely to watch.

It's just been going too well though, which worries me.

 

[pabloran]

oh really sean...bin goin to well!better to come imho

 

[Sean K]

oh really sean...bin goin to well!better to come imho

There should be. It’s still priced as an explorer, not a developer financed to production. And it’s a long way off a gold miner producing 260k ounces. Steady as she goes wins the race. The easy money has probably already been made on this back at 30c though. I think some punters were worried about the quality of the deposit, which is still a small risk.

 

[pabloran]

There should be. It’s still priced as an explorer, not a developer financed to production. And it’s a long way off a gold miner producing 260k ounces. Steady as she goes wins the race. The easy money has probably already been made on this back at 30c though. I think some punters were worried about the quality of the deposit, which is still a small risk.

how far off to production

 

[pabloran]

how far off to production

according to news on 22 nov producing in last quarter of this year....unless this is a long time for you lol

 

[Sean K]

according to news on 22 nov producing in last quarter of this year....unless this is a long time for you lol

I was referring to the price/MC being a long way off a producer of 260K ounces. The risk is they don’t actually get into production on schedule and they don’t actually produce the stated ounces. There’s every chance that could happen due to a variety of reasons. However, their plant builder has a very good track record, so I’m pretty confident they’ll be pouring gold by the end of the year.