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- 3 April 2013
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Seriously great stuff!
[Anyone reading this from the Diversification threads?]
You can make seriously big money trading on short term movements. However, the nature of the people who do this are seriously uncommon and they tend to sit closer to the hub of trading flow...rather that at the other end of some CFD/discount on-line terminal.
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Overall, this is a newbie alert. The path from young, hopeful, high frequency, short-horizon, trader to dormant account is fairly well worn. I think you'll find that those who emerge from dormancy after a period of savings to replenish accounts tend to become dormant again too. A quick chat to the CFD account managers can clarify that.
This game is seriously hard. However, it is seriously easy to get on the field.
Enter at own risk.
If you have limited experience/knowledge, think things are simpler than what they are, are a young to mid-aged male, trade a lot, enter the markets as a trader to get into the kind of circumstance where you might hit some kind of a lottery win....on average and in great likelihood, you are totally cactus. Anecdotal evidence suggests that quoting Buffett a lot on ASF is no defence. Naturally, this segment learns best from direct experience and pays no regard for the data. It is partly for this kind of reason that there are so many service providers democratising access to markets. It is liberating...money from these guys into the pockets of others.
The authors in the ASF ecology could do worse than to collate the advice and prognostications made on these threads into a book to highlight what this archetype looks like and what happens for the most part. This book, if written, should sell well and deserve broad readership. It obviously won't get that.
I love the idea of being a short term trader but I am fully aware of the challenges. Only play money is used to fluff around with futures
Excellent
I'll gladly take your " Play Money " and everyone else with the same
Attitude. ---- 90%
Haha all yours, but once I have an edge I be expect it back with interest
This is from IG Markets. It related to CFD account activity in 2014. A very recent piece of data (as was the FX stuff posted previously) to highlight outcomes. CFD is not exactly a market place for buy and hold investors.
So, if CFD accounts are predominantly retail by number and these are predominantly short term traders...talk to an account manager or turn up to their info nights and check for yourself...check the demographic...then listen to their trade rationale and trade type for the most part. A swing trader is positively passive.
Given your arguments that a change in market structure over recent times obviates historical study, I suspect you'll only be convinced when you talk to/become a broker/adviser at a CFD place whereupon any alternative thesis to high frequency, short term, trading as a reliable means to monetary loss for retail clients will be firmly shuttered.
Overall, this is a newbie alert. The path from young, hopeful, high frequency, short-horizon, trader to dormant account is fairly well worn. I think you'll find that those who emerge from dormancy after a period of savings to replenish accounts tend to become dormant again too. A quick chat to the CFD account managers can clarify that.
This game is seriously hard. However, it is seriously easy to get on the field.
Enter at own risk.
Most people who are unsuccessful in the sharemarket are so simply because they cannot or will not follow a simple plan to succeed.
Often this can be attributed to lack of knowledge,patience or experience.
These would be some questions I would ask before trading.
Do you have a trading plan before you trade?
Are you trading the right markets for your level of knowledge and experience?
( most traders overestimate themselves and often get into trouble.)
Do you have the time available to trade those markets successfully?
and always remember
"Do not risk your capital if you are not sure you can succeed."
All I have as a defence for my terrible terrible report card is a single example outcome (which I know has no statistical significance) and a buffet concept of circle of competence.Anecdotal evidence suggests that quoting Buffett a lot on ASF is no defence.
I would be particularly interested in seeing any research that measures personality traits/characteristics of both successful/unsuccessful investors and traders.
My report card on many of the topics raised by Deep State and backed with academic studies and broad data on the averages, is atrocious. (makes his posts very thought provoking for me)
Broadly diversified within asset class: FAIL
Broadly diversified between asset classes: FAIL
Diversified Internationally: FAIL
Counteract Home Bias: FAIL
Maintains portfolio concentrations by re-balancing: FAIL
Uses full service broker: FAIL
Seeks advice from professionals: BIG FAIL
Etc etc etc........ FAIL, FAIL, FAIL.
I know I fail – I have failed all the way along my journey. In fact early on I didn’t even know the theory I was failing against.
All I have as a defence for my terrible terrible report card is a single example outcome (which I know has no statistical significance) and a buffet concept of circle of competence.
I too would like to see this research - Maybe just maybe I could add at least one Acceptable to my report card.
My report card on many of the topics raised by Deep State and backed with academic studies and broad data on the averages, is atrocious. (makes his posts very thought provoking for me)....
So have you failed or are you failing as an Investor/Trader?
Not against the Deep State benchmark but your own?
All I have as a defence for my terrible terrible report card is a single example outcome (which I know has no statistical significance)
Do YOU believe that you or anyone will need a PASS on all FAILS to be successful?
Don't get me wrong I feast on Deep States stuff.
Refreshing punch in the face!
Yes I'm sure there are outliers.
How do you decide if an outlier result is due to luck or some other attribute? Market randomness on its own creates outliers. If your results are just a lucky outlier - you have to cut and run whilst your luck holds. If some other attribute accounts for the outlying result then it makes sense to continue doing what you do.
My report card on many of the topics raised: FAIL
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