Thought Bubbles from the Deep

[Value Hunter]

You speak as if I have zero idea of my performance. Like I said I did some back of the envelope calculations.

 

[Value Hunter]

Once it becomes 10 years of investing (after the FY2018 tax returns are submitted) I will likely pay to get a proper performance audit done on all of the portfolios I manage. For now back of the envelope calculations will suffice.

I know from back of the envelope calcuations that my parents SMSF (unleveraged) has generated net returns somewhere between 10-15% p.a. net IRR and my personal portfolio (substantially leveraged) and my mum's personal portfolio (slightly leveraged) have both generated 15-20% p.a. net IRR.

 

[craft]

You speak as if I have zero idea of my performance. Like I said I did some back of the envelope calculations.

On the back of my envelope I'm a legend!

On more thorough analysis, I'm just an ar#ehole.

The back of the envelope always provides enough scope to come up with what ever we want to justify our beliefs.

 

[McLovin]

Once it becomes 10 years of investing (after the FY2018 tax returns are submitted) I will likely pay to get a proper performance audit done on all of the portfolios I manage. For now back of the envelope calculations will suffice.

Why do you need to pay someone to do it? It's not complicated to unitise a portfolio and track its performance. Even just measuring RoA will give you some understanding of whether your returns are that much better than the market's, then you can worry about overlaying leverage. To me it seems like a no-brainer. It's really what everyone should be doing.

 

[Value Hunter]

I would be interested to hear if anybody has any thoughts on whether the general real estate cycle is time-able/tradeable to any useful degree (and the flow on impacts to other areas of the economy) as suggested by land economists like Fred Harrison, Fred Folvary and Phillip J. Anderson http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/

I subscribe to Phillip J. Anderson's newsletter (cycles, trends, forecasts). While I am not necessarily fully convinced of the rightness of his conclusions, he does produce a lot of high quality research on areas that few other people are writing about.

 

[DeepState]

I would be interested to hear if anybody has any thoughts on whether the general real estate cycle is time-able/tradeable to any useful degree (and the flow on impacts to other areas of the economy) as suggested by land economists like Fred Harrison, Fred Folvary and Phillip J. Anderson http://www.phillipjanderson.com/18-year-real-estate-cycle/

I subscribe to Phillip J. Anderson's newsletter (cycles, trends, forecasts). While I am not necessarily fully convinced of the rightness of his conclusions, he does produce a lot of high quality research on areas that few other people are writing about.

The property cycle might actually be driven by the lunar standstill. I wonder if that explanation, which synchronises to the hypothesis of 18 year cycles, puts things in perspective.

 

[Value Hunter]

Deepstate before you dismiss these guys as quacks you should look into their research, even if you disagree that the real estate cycle averages approximately 18 years and is easily time-able, they still publish a lot of interesting research on the overall land market (and other markets also) that is worth reading. I do not necessarily agree that the cycle has to be 18 years or any given length of time but there is so much insightful research being produced by land economists like these guys I am happy to wade through a few disagreeable ideas to get to the gems.

 

[DeepState]

Deepstate before you dismiss these guys as quacks you should look into their research, even if you disagree that the real estate cycle averages approximately 18 years and is easily time-able, they still publish a lot of interesting research on the overall land market (and other markets also) that is worth reading. I do not necessarily agree that the cycle has to be 18 years or any given length of time but there is so much insightful research being produced by land economists like these guys I am happy to wade through a few disagreeable ideas to get to the gems.

Well, your question related to the property cycle, and that was my observation. Cycles do exist, but to claim their rhythm for centuries is fixed seems silly. They may well have other things going which are interesting to review. However, my focus is elsewhere.

 

[DeepState]

Let me be clear. i did not raise EGP, I do not know Tony and have not run forensics over this. I am not assuming he is a fraud, but am interested to find that much of what is asserted here cannot actually be verified and this seems at odds with statements about superior practices and desire for transparency together with the business model. That's it so far as anything related to fraud goes. I have no interest either way other than to prefer a legit outcome.

I do believe EGP requires an AFSL. EGP is an investment vehicle plain and simple. It should be dead obvious when you use terms like 'invest with' in relation to the l.

Caveat Emptor. That's it for EGP.

I note EGP got itself an AFSL today. It's quite a thing to get Chris Cuffe in to the frame. Hope they succeed in their endeavours.

 

[qldfrog]

Nice to see you back DS, is the silence related to the perplexed position the world[investment world including] is at..or just relaxing time?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Nice to see you back DS, is the silence related to the perplexed position the world[investment world including] is at..or just relaxing time?

Or the perplexing state that ASF is in?

 

[DeepState]

Nice to see you back DS, is the silence related to the perplexed position the world[investment world including] is at..or just relaxing time?

Thanks. Have been doing a lot of development work of late to lift the quality, such as it is, of what I have been doing and adding new strategies to the suite. Takes me months to roll out a new idea.

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks. Have been doing a lot of development work of late to lift the quality, such as it is, of what I have been doing and adding new strategies to the suite. Takes me months to roll out a new idea.

Would really like have the opportunity to catch up one day, any engineering skill (software inc.) which you could benefit from?
Nice to see you are OK

 

[DeepState]

Would really like have the opportunity to catch up one day, any engineering skill (software inc.) which you could benefit from?
Nice to see you are OK

Yes, we came close a few years back. Hope the farm is going well.

 

[qldfrog]

Yes, we came close a few years back. Hope the farm is going well.

We will find a way: farms and startups/projects going reasonably well, life is good...but could always be better with better government and now especially proper internet access...
A real bromance here!!
But always looking forward/and up to your comments/sentiments

 

[DeepState]

Those union skim offs reported by Senator Cash are disgraceful.

 

[DeepState]

Jeremy Corbyn is apparently seen as PM-elect. Something his own party had thought was an impossibility only a short time ago. His election and policies would see a fundamental restructuring of the UK and possible further Scottish referendum. Macron is more unpopular than Trump. Merkl is back but needs to form a more complex coalition to govern. Once again Winston Peters holds the balance of power in NZ. It will be a significant test to see if Trump can achieve tax reform but, thus far, the very dangerous developments on North Korea and the calling out of Tehran seems a close echo of the 'Axis of Evil'. His capricious choice of words and partners in the Congress and Senate makes lasting alliances hard to form. However, recent polls show his popularity rising again as a war posture is taken. Once a poster child of Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi, has fallen in to disrepair or utter disgrace with the genocide in Myanmar.

Meanwhile, Erdogan, Putin, Xi, Abe...are actually getting things done for better or worse.

This seems to be the era of the strong-man once again as the weaknesses of democracies are showing through following the lack of inclusion in post GFC economic gains and mass immigration.

I recently toured the Darwin War Museum and the parallels between North Korea now and WWII Japan are not lost despite significant differences. Gladly the UN understands that sanctions do not mean a total shut-off of energy imports. A lesson Trump has yet to understand.

I have been astounded at how completely idiotic Trump has been in the implementation of his proposals to this point. Yet he has the singularly greatest military arsenal in the world at his call...a man who shirked his obligations despite attending military educational institutions. And we have another madman posing as a foil in NK and, following provocation despite meeting treaty obligations, Tehran testing ballistic missiles. A US military and political over-extension appears on the horizon.

China's rise into complete dominance in the Asian sphere is looking ever more assured. When Bill Clinton completed his term, he expressed that "How China chooses to express its greatness" was one of the three big questions of the time. We're about to find out. China's statecraft makes the US appear utterly outmatched. The more I learn about the One Belt One Road initiative, the more I think we are witnessing the rise of one of the strongest and lasting empires in history. It may be more durable if held together by a degree of mutual interest rather than outright land-grabbing and extraction of labour and resources which were part of past examples.

I'm thinking about getting some lessons in Mandarin.

 

[qldfrog]

Meanwhile, Erdogan, Putin, Xi, Abe...are actually getting things done for better or worse.
I'm thinking about getting some lessons in Mandarin.

After my earlier world tour this year, after seeing China/Russia and then Europe and the Americas, same conclusion.
Wife is starting Mandarin!!!!