Thought Bubbles from the Deep

[DeepState]

Fresh meat in China:








Sell low.
Borrow money, buy high.

 

[qldfrog]

Fresh meat in China:

View attachment 62382

View attachment 62383

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Sell low.
Borrow money, buy high.

scary as I have exposure thru magellan asia fund
and probably heavier exposure as i am Australian.

 

[galumay]

DS, have you coe across this guys blog? Lots of stuff to think about as you read back thru it. (dont be put off by the first couple of pages that are just quotes, I am about 40 pages into it this weekend and its got some great ideas in it.

http://seekingalpha.com/author/chris-demuth-jr/instablog

 

[DeepState]

DS, have you coe across this guys blog? Lots of stuff to think about as you read back thru it. (dont be put off by the first couple of pages that are just quotes, I am about 40 pages into it this weekend and its got some great ideas in it.

http://seekingalpha.com/author/chris-demuth-jr/instablog

I have not seen this before. Glad you are enjoying it.
Slowly wading my way through Dalio's treatise on how the economy works at the moment. Could take a while.

 

[The Falcon]

For Dividend Growth Investing these US blogs are worth a read. I particularly like Tim McAleenan Jr's (The Conservative Income Investor) historical stock nerding, some of which is pretty interesting.


http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/?m=1

The type of stocks they cover are probably not a bad starting point for the very long term buy and hold equity investor who is interested in looking beyond the ASX.

 

[DeepState]

For Dividend Growth Investing these US blogs are worth a read. I particularly like Tim McAleenan Jr's (The Conservative Income Investor) historical stock nerding, some of which is pretty interesting.


http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/?m=1

The type of stocks they cover are probably not a bad starting point for the very long term buy and hold equity investor who is interested in looking beyond the ASX.

Thanks for the links. Are you working through a list of potential positions?

 

[The Falcon]

Indeed DS I have a long watchlist. Tom Russo is a big influence and his thoughts on capacity to reinvest, capacity to suffer, brand power and long term management thinking really strike a chord. Also a bit of div growth thrown in. Lots of sin stocks as it turns out ! I intend to accumulate holdings in each at a fair entry price, add on weakness and hold for a very long time...30+ years. My working international watchlist ;

Compagnie Financiere Richemont
Nestle
Unilever
Heineken Holdings
SAB Miller
Diageo
Coca Cola
Berkshire Hathaway
Markel Corp
Alleghany Corp
Fairfax Financial Holdings
Annheuser Busch InBev
Pernod Ricard
Exxon Mobil
Chevron
JP Morgan
Wells Fargo
MasterCard
VISA
Phillip Morris
Altria
British American Tobacco
Brown Forman
Johnson and Johnson
Walmart
Proctor and Gamble
McCormick and Co
T Rowe Price
Franklin Resources
Colgate Palmolive

 

[DeepState]

Not good figures.

 

[DeepState]

The world took a step towards financial stability over the last 24 hrs.

 

[DeepState]

The dominant theme of the last few days has been an unwind of carry.

Yields up
Higher yield currencies weaker
Equities off.


Not exactly too sure of why this has been happening to this extent as yet.

 

[DeepState]

Worth review:

- Watch particularly for data mining a block of data and the use and abuse of out-of-sample data.
- The presence of profitable patterns in even white noise is a given.



http://www.economist.com/node/21644202/print

 

[Triathlete]

Probability is not destiny.


Not sure if I am understanding this statement in your context...DeepState

I would have thought that if you are able to keep your Win/loss and Profit/loss ratio in the positive based on your probability level while trading or investing and depending on your knowledge, experience and with the help of patience that some time into the future it well may become your financial destiny.

 

[Triathlete]

Probability is not destiny.

Not sure if I am understanding this statement in your context...DeepState


I would have thought that if you are able to keep your Win/loss and Profit/loss ratio in the positive based on your probability level while trading or investing and depending on your knowledge, experience and with the help of patience that some time into the future it well may become your financial destiny.

 

[Knobby22]

Probability is not destiny.

Not sure if I am understanding this statement in your context...DeepState


I would have thought that if you are able to keep your Win/loss and Profit/loss ratio in the positive based on your probability level while trading or investing and depending on your knowledge, experience and with the help of patience that some time into the future it well may become your financial destiny.

Your destiny is death.
The probability of it being next week is low.

 

[qldfrog]

Your destiny is death.
The probability of it being next week is low.

you can not change your destiny but you can change the probability;
What about this russian roulette game?

 

[qldfrog]

Interesting:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-enough-bonds-and-too-much-oil-114924883.html
so the China stockmarket crazyness might start to crack, oil falling 3% last night after a hard to explain jump in the last week and German bonds move by half a point...
DeepState, we need your guidance there to look ahead;
And the AUD fell 1% last night
yeppeee will cover some off my double diggit losses on the market in the last 3 days
VERY instable, are we at the top of the rollercoaster?

 

[Triathlete]

A smart man cannot follow another man blindly even though the other man is right,
because you cannot have confidence and act on advice when you do not know what
it is based on.
You will be able to act with confidence and make profits when you
can see and know for yourself why stocks should go up or down.

WD GANN

 

[DeepState]

Interesting:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-enough-bonds-and-too-much-oil-114924883.html
so the China stockmarket crazyness might start to crack, oil falling 3% last night after a hard to explain jump in the last week and German bonds move by half a point...
DeepState, we need your guidance there to look ahead;
And the AUD fell 1% last night
yeppeee will cover some off my double diggit losses on the market in the last 3 days
VERY instable, are we at the top of the rollercoaster?

This is what I think is going on.

Leading into the ECB QE program, EZ yields sharply compressed. Yields, apart from Greece, continued to compress as the Tsipras impasse became more acute. For some reason, from 14 April, the world decided that things had improved and Greek yields came in. In a mirror action, the flight to safety evident in core EZ yields reversed. These movements happened sharpest in the EZ, as you would expect. This can be regarded as a slippage in QE for all intents and you can see the expected outcome of a fall in the equity market and also EUR vs USD.

Bond yields around the developed world also backed up as relative value considerations asserted themselves. It gives you and idea of how much influence EZ yields have on the RoW. Japanese yields didn't move. This is in accordance with the fact that very little of their bonds are owned by foreigners outside of the official sector.

The USD moved down as the upward move in yields and perception of greater financial stability led to an unwinding of its safe-haven status (of all the banking systems, it is one of the strongest nowadays).

The Australian stock market fell as well. The degree of decline was certainly impacted by a poor report from CBA. This offset the iron ore outcomes post VALE-BR that boosted the outlook for related stocks.

If you want to know what happens next, if these drivers continue to be dominant, you will need to know what happens with Greece next. I have no insight.

The size of the moves are quite large and may be influenced by the reduced level of OTC market making ability in the bond markets nowadays. It was also interesting that credit spreads did not move much through all of this. They never really blew out, and they never really came in. I guess the search for yield effects there are pretty much washing out.

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks,
Greece, the butterfly wings flapping in the world of finance...Never know what it will ytrigger yet so insignificant n perspective.
Could the Greece default scare just be a mirror image of a bigger malaise: when most (if not all ) central banks/governments debt might never ever be paid back? Especially in a low inflation/stagnation world?

 

[DeepState]

For those using DCF on FCF out there. What discount rate are you seeing implicit in levered owner's earnings in the Aust market right now? My estimate, rubbery as it is, is around 8%pa. Implies about a 5% equity risk premium on QE suppressed yields.