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The World is on the brink!

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Interview with Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers.

He was a Nuclear War planner? His take on the Doomsday Machine and how nuclear war would take place.


 
The decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel takes the Middle East and the world a few extra notches to a shooting war that will solve all our other problems permanently.

The utter madness of the decison, (apart from virtually declaring war on 1.5 billion Muslims ) is managing to alienate every other country in the world (except Israel ) at a time the US is trying to justify a challenge to North Korea.

Donald Trump is insanely dangerous and incompetant.
 
Why worry about these extraneous issues when you live in a safe and prosperous country like Australia?

Why not just focus on picking winning stocks with multiple upside and limited to no downside?

Macroeconomic concerns usually have little to no impact on the value of businesses or, more precisely, pieces of businesses known as stocks.

basilio said:
The decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel takes the Middle East and the world a few extra notches to a shooting war that will solve all our other problems permanently.

The utter madness of the decison, (apart from virtually declaring war on 1.5 billion Muslims ) is managing to alienate every other country in the world (except Israel ) at a time the US is trying to justify a challenge to North Korea.

Donald Trump is insanely dangerous and incompetant.
Click to expand...
 
AlexDrys said:
Why worry about these extraneous issues when you live in a safe and prosperous country like Australia?

Why not just focus on picking winning stocks with multiple upside and limited to no downside?

Macroeconomic concerns usually have little to no impact on the value of businesses or, more precisely, pieces of businesses known as stocks.
Click to expand...

Are you serious ? Or is this just a clever wind up?

Any significant war in Korea would wreck the South Korean industry and economy - which coincidentally is well embedded in Asia and Australia. The risk of any exchange going nuclear is now at its highest point with the US threatening to wipe N Korea off the map and N Korea not entertaining that thought.

Israel has nuclear weapons and has made clear it it will use them as it sees fit. The remainder of the Arab world is appalled at the US decision to so clearly support the Israeli government on a critical issue like Jerusalem.

100 years ago a war on the other side of the world could be limited in its effects. Not now Alex.
 
Ben Graham's famous quote comes to mind:

'A strong-minded approach to investment, firmly based on the margin-of-safety principle can yield handsome rewards...In 1900 none of us had any inkling of what the next fifty years were to do to the world. Now, in 1949, we have deeper apprehensions but no more knowledge of the future. Yet if we confine our attention to American investment experience there is some comfort to be gleaned from the last half-century. Through all its vicissitudes and casualties, as earth-shaking as they were unforeseen, it remained true that sound investment principles produced generally sound results. We must act on the assumption that they will continue to do so.'
Benjamin Graham, writing in the Introduction to 'The Intelligent Investor', first published in 1949.





basilio said:
Are you serious ? Or is this just a clever wind up?

Any significant war in Korea would wreck the South Korean industry and economy - which coincidentally is well embedded in Asia and Australia. The risk of any exchange going nuclear is now at its highest point with the US threatening to wipe N Korea off the map and N Korea not entertaining that thought.

Israel has nuclear weapons and has made clear it it will use them as it sees fit. The remainder of the Arab world is appalled at the US decision to so clearly support the Israeli government on a critical issue like Jerusalem.

100 years ago a war on the other side of the world could be limited in its effects. Not now Alex.
Click to expand...
 
AlexDrys said:
Ben Graham's famous quote comes to mind:

'A strong-minded approach to investment, firmly based on the margin-of-safety principle can yield handsome rewards...In 1900 none of us had any inkling of what the next fifty years were to do to the world. Now, in 1949, we have deeper apprehensions but no more knowledge of the future. Yet if we confine our attention to American investment experience there is some comfort to be gleaned from the last half-century. Through all its vicissitudes and casualties, as earth-shaking as they were unforeseen, it remained true that sound investment principles produced generally sound results. We must act on the assumption that they will continue to do so.'
Benjamin Graham, writing in the Introduction to 'The Intelligent Investor', first published in 1949.
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Would have been better to quote Fisher regarding the need to study the business and ignore the macro.

For instance, Fisher said that stocks are said to be risky due to war. However, if war were to break out where the US homeland are under threat of extinction, the world will go to heck anyway (Fisher put it better).

But as Basillio alluded to above, the world of America in the 50s and 60s aren't the world of today. American, hence Western, position in the world aren't the same where they were after total victory and dominance of the world after WW2.

For one, the sick man of Asia is fast rising. If current trajectory continues for another couple of decades, Western influence (forget about domination) of Asia, Africa is minimal to non-existence. Asian trades alone accounts for a fairly large chunk of world trade. Losing access and influence in that one region alone and it'll be pretty difficult to service them couple dozen trillions in debt.

So while Graham, Fisher, Buffett are right that the investor ought to focus on the business in making investment decisions, knowing the broad macro geopolitical and economic grand strategy does give insight into the overall direction of the world.

It help decides whether a sure bet is tinned cans, water, or Versace and JimmyChoo shoes. Also help the investor decide what companies, industry and what type of management can better cope with the coming changes.

That and it's a way to read history as we live it.
 
luutzu said:
But then again it's Trump and his tiny hands at the red button so who knows. He might wake up one day to a rude text from lil Kim and goes nuclear.
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Well that would write all the money printing, off the ledger, "we have spent 2billion trillion zillion on the war with North Korea".
Now we need to focus and rebuild, this great nation. The war cost a lot, but we built a great manufacturing base, that saw us through.
Now we need to re group and build up from this base, there is a lot of rebuilding required and we are the nation who can supply the goods.
Hope it doesn't play out that way, but with the press we have, there is no quiet way of doing it.
 
sptrawler said:
Well that would write all the money printing, off the ledger, "we have spent 2billion trillion zillion on the war with North Korea".
Now we need to focus and rebuild, this great nation. The war cost a lot, but we built a great manufacturing base, that saw us through.
Now we need to re group and build up from this base, there is a lot of rebuilding required and we are the nation who can supply the goods.
Hope it doesn't play out that way, but with the press we have, there is no quiet way of doing it.
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If war breaks out with North Korea, the world will be rebuilt from the nuclear dust up.

Heard an interview recently where the egghead said there's some 220,000 Americans living in S.Korea. They include the troops, their families, citizens etc.

There's some 1 million Chinese living and working in Seoul. There's another 1M Japanese; another 1M Taiwanese etc.

You can't warn those people, or evacuate them out of range. If you do, the North Korean will know, they they will strike.

So somebody will get nuked and the rest will be dragged in.

Given how NK was bombed by the US during the Korean War to the point that literally there's almost no man-made structure left standing... I'm sure the NK also have the Samson principle: Try again and we bring down the entire place.
 
luutzu said:
If war breaks out with North Korea, the world will be rebuilt from the nuclear dust up.

Heard an interview recently where the egghead said there's some 220,000 Americans living in S.Korea. They include the troops, their families, citizens etc.

There's some 1 million Chinese living and working in Seoul. There's another 1M Japanese; another 1M Taiwanese etc.

You can't warn those people, or evacuate them out of range. If you do, the North Korean will know, they they will strike.

So somebody will get nuked and the rest will be dragged in.

Given how NK was bombed by the US during the Korean War to the point that literally there's almost no man-made structure left standing... I'm sure the NK also have the Samson principle: Try again and we bring down the entire place.
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One would think that whatever NK has, the U.S has 100 times more, it may sound all good but it won't end that way.
Also China has come a long way since the Korean War, they no longer are the impoverished hordes to the North, they now are one of the Worlds power nations and sell $hit loads of stuff to the U.S, U.K and Europe.
I don't know how much they rely on trade with NK.
I would expect that if NK decides to go to war, they will be on there own, if not it will become a World War.
Then it would become really interesting, because it would become about debasing the $US as the reserve currency, then we would come into play due to our gold reserves.
Ah speculation, isn't it great, what fun. lol
 
Ww3 will ruin Chinese plans for the Chinese century.

They may threaten, but a real war with the US won't go well for them. (won't go well for anyone really)

I tell you, war is not in the plan for Chinese economic hegemony.
 
China has done extremely well, in the last 20 years, selling $hit to everybody.
It has built them from a second world economy, to almost leading, the first world.
There is no way they are going to risk continuing growth, by backing North Korea, unless they feel they can gain some financial strategic advantage.
 
Now we have the Taiwan factor coming into play.

China has become so bold as to say that US ships entering Taiwan is an act of war.

On the grand scheme of things, strategically thinking, we are approaching disaster. These events take years to metastasise.

It will take just one seemingness innocuous event for the cards to fall.

It's only a matter of what, not when.
 
sptrawler said:
One would think that whatever NK has, the U.S has 100 times more, it may sound all good but it won't end that way.
Also China has come a long way since the Korean War, they no longer are the impoverished hordes to the North, they now are one of the Worlds power nations and sell $hit loads of stuff to the U.S, U.K and Europe.
I don't know how much they rely on trade with NK.
I would expect that if NK decides to go to war, they will be on there own, if not it will become a World War.
Then it would become really interesting, because it would become about debasing the $US as the reserve currency, then we would come into play due to our gold reserves.
Ah speculation, isn't it great, what fun. lol
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Yea, NK won't have a chance against the US. But its strategy is not to take on the US, just merely Seoul or Tokyo and thereby, potentially, dragging the US, SK, Japan into war with China and Russia.

Or it could just threaten and strike Japan, giving Japanese imperialists a fairly reasonable excuse to rebuild its military to not just protect but project power.

A resurgent Japan, probably SK too, could lead to a big headache for American influence (control) over those two colonies.

So it's not the size, it's how you use it :D
 
So many sovereignty issues have led to fighting it is a given it will happen in the future. Human has come a long way since the rock throwing days.
 
The three theatres that are likely to open up will be centered on Syria, Ukrain and Nth Korea. Hard to see what kicks off first (perhaps the Israeli jet being shot down is the start), but they will probably ignite around the same period and draw all the major powers in, forcing sides to be taken. We are not ready.
 
Who says OZ manufacturing is dead?

Ramping up arms exports now.

"Lowest morals are just the beginning"... classic.

 

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