The World is on the brink!

[tech/a]

China has said they will remain neutral if Korea start firing
But will back Korea if the yanks shoot first

This equals stalemate

 

[CanOz]

We are really seconds to midnight...so many serious situations and so many loose canons....

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Guamites would be feeling very unsafe.

Still possible to de-escalate tensions. Stop firing missiles and we'll remove our military presence. That sort of deal.

 

[luutzu]

Guamites would be feeling very unsafe.

Still possible to de-escalate tensions. Stop firing missiles and we'll remove our military presence. That sort of deal.

Not that I'm picking sides, right Canny? But the reason lil Kim test his missiles might have a lot to do with the presence of military bases all over its neighbourhood.

Imagine if New Zealand has its military bases in Tasmania, Fiji, Indonesia... with its weapons, we believe, pointing at us; with their Kiwi leader after leader threatening to invade like they did in the 1940s to 1950s, flattening practically our entire country... call us crazy, and maybe we are, but we'd want a nuke too.

Is the nuke an offensive or defensive move? IT cannot be offensive unless we're suicidal.

But accidents do happen... chubby and tiny fingers do make mistakes.

On the bright side, the US and South Korea is going to conduct a war game around the Korean peninsular next week or so. I know practice makes perfect but now might not be a good time to see how you best take out a country that threatens you and you threatens them.

 

[Tisme]

well no war no army lol who gives a rats we need another war, too many people on this planet.

You mean too may of "those" people?

 

[wayneL]

So who had a years supply of baked bean in the back shed?

 

[McLovin]

Guamites would be feeling very unsafe.

Still possible to de-escalate tensions. Stop firing missiles and we'll remove our military presence. That sort of deal.

The DPRK doesn't care about US military bases in Asia – that's China's problem. They're just building regime insurance.

 

[basilio]

Where are we now with North Korea and how did we get there ?
I thought this analysis had merit.

Trump has taken us to the brink of nuclear war. Can he be stopped?
Jonathan Freedland
In previous nuclear standoffs, Trump’s predecessors knew when to hold back from further antagonising the other side. But now there is no such certainty

Comments
2,364
Contact author


@Freedland

Wednesday 9 August 2017 21.39 AEST Last modified on Thursday 10 August 2017 02.47 AEST

This was the moment many Americans, along with the rest of the world, feared. This – precisely this – was what alarmed us most about the prospect of Donald Trump becoming president of the United States. Not that he would hire useless people or that he would tweet all day or use high office to enrich himself and his family or that he’d be cruel, bigoted and divisive – though those were all concerns. No, the chief anxiety provoked by the notion of Trump in the White House was this: that he was sufficiently reckless, impulsive and stupid to bring the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Of course, cooler heads might soon prevail. China might find the diplomatic back-channel that persuades North Korea to step back from the current clash with Washington. The Pyongyang regime might calculate for itself that, despite its latest threat to attack the US airbase in the Pacific island of Guam, further escalation risks its own survival. Or the generals that now flank Trump – John Kelly as chief of staff, Jim Mattis as defense secretary – might succeed in talking their boss down from the ledge.


But make no mistake. Trump’s remarks on Tuesday have pushed the US to the precipice of nuclear confrontation with North Korea. We have to hope that both parties will step back, but be under no illusion that the brink is where we stand. And Trump put us there.

The form of words the president used made the critical difference. Threatening Kim Jong-un with “fire and fury” was bellicose enough. But adding the words “the likes of which this world has never seen before” left no doubt that he was talking about a nuclear strike against North Korea.

It’s worth pausing to consider the obvious consequences of such an action. Seventy five million people live on the Korean peninsula. There are also 30,000 US servicemen and women stationed there. How many would die if Trump made good on his threat? And that is to reckon without further retaliation and escalation, as Russia or China unleashed their own nuclear arsenals. This is why all previous US presidents have used only the most sober language when speaking of North Korea. They have understood the human stakes. They have sought to reduce tension, not ratchet it up.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/09/trump-brink-nuclear-war-stop

 

[Tisme]

WASHINGTON: India is "behaving like a mature power" in the Doklam standoff in the Sikkim section and making China look like an adolescent throwing a tamper tantrum, a top American defence expert has said.

India and China have been locked in a face-off in the Doklam area for the last 50 days after Indian troops stopped the Chinese People's Liberation Army from building a road in the area.

Praising India's behaviour over the matter, James R Holmes, professor of strategy at the prestigious US Naval War College, said, "New Delhi has done things right thus far, neither backing away from the dispute nor replying in kind to Beijing's over-the-top rhetoric."


"It is behaving as the mature power and making China look like the adolescent throwing a temper tantrum," Mr Holmes said. He said it was 'weird' that China wanted to keep alive a boundary dispute with its most formidable neighbour. "If China wants to pursue an assertive maritime strategy, it needs secure borders on land so it doesn't have to worry about overland aggression from its neighbours," Mr Holmes said.

"In other words, confronting India in the Himalayas is not a purely rational course of action driven by rational cost/benefit analysis," said the professor from the US Naval War College.


When asked why the US has remained silent so far on this issue, he said the current administration has too much on its plate.

"It's also possible Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi and his advisers don't want the United States involved in a Himalayan dispute it has little way of influencing. If the dispute escalates, chances are Washington will come out in support of New Delhi," Mr Holmes said.

 

[CanOz]

Regarding the NK / US confrontation:

NK will likely hold its promise and launch multiple missles towards Guam. The US/Allies have a quick choice to make after determing the trajectory.

1.) Knock them down with THAAD, Aegis, or Patriot missles. Risk here is missing altogether and showing weakness.
2.) if determined to be on the promised course of landing harmlessly in the ocean off Guam, let them land and assess the intelligence that can be gathered from such an excersise. Risk here is that they get the path wrong....

Either way it will be an interesting week ahead.

 

[Darc Knight]

Thread started in 2011 - "World on the brink" .... again? Not again!!!!

 

[luutzu]

Where are we now with North Korea and how did we get there ?
I thought this analysis had merit.

Trump has taken us to the brink of nuclear war. Can he be stopped?
Jonathan Freedland
In previous nuclear standoffs, Trump’s predecessors knew when to hold back from further antagonising the other side. But now there is no such certainty

Comments
2,364
Contact author


@Freedland

Wednesday 9 August 2017 21.39 AEST Last modified on Thursday 10 August 2017 02.47 AEST

This was the moment many Americans, along with the rest of the world, feared. This – precisely this – was what alarmed us most about the prospect of Donald Trump becoming president of the United States. Not that he would hire useless people or that he would tweet all day or use high office to enrich himself and his family or that he’d be cruel, bigoted and divisive – though those were all concerns. No, the chief anxiety provoked by the notion of Trump in the White House was this: that he was sufficiently reckless, impulsive and stupid to bring the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Of course, cooler heads might soon prevail. China might find the diplomatic back-channel that persuades North Korea to step back from the current clash with Washington. The Pyongyang regime might calculate for itself that, despite its latest threat to attack the US airbase in the Pacific island of Guam, further escalation risks its own survival. Or the generals that now flank Trump – John Kelly as chief of staff, Jim Mattis as defense secretary – might succeed in talking their boss down from the ledge.


But make no mistake. Trump’s remarks on Tuesday have pushed the US to the precipice of nuclear confrontation with North Korea. We have to hope that both parties will step back, but be under no illusion that the brink is where we stand. And Trump put us there.

The form of words the president used made the critical difference. Threatening Kim Jong-un with “fire and fury” was bellicose enough. But adding the words “the likes of which this world has never seen before” left no doubt that he was talking about a nuclear strike against North Korea.

It’s worth pausing to consider the obvious consequences of such an action. Seventy five million people live on the Korean peninsula. There are also 30,000 US servicemen and women stationed there. How many would die if Trump made good on his threat? And that is to reckon without further retaliation and escalation, as Russia or China unleashed their own nuclear arsenals. This is why all previous US presidents have used only the most sober language when speaking of North Korea. They have understood the human stakes. They have sought to reduce tension, not ratchet it up.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/09/trump-brink-nuclear-war-stop

And just yesterday, the Yellow Emperor threaten Venezuela with a "military option" unless Venezuela bring democracy back to its people.

To anyone watching any independent news sources or read the most basics of history on the country's coup attempt on then-president Chavez, the idea that Trump or the US want democracy or civil order in Venezuela is just a joke.

Reminds me of an old Chomsky lecture he gave some 20 years ago... He actually predict that Venezuela will be toppled and bring into line "in the near future". Why? It has the world's largest oil reserves.

Freaking psychos. Literally playing with the world like it's some toy of theirs.

 

[Tisme]

And just yesterday, the Yellow Emperor threaten Venezuela with a "military option" unless Venezuela bring democracy back to its people.

To anyone watching any independent news sources or read the most basics of history on the country's coup attempt on then-president Chavez, the idea that Trump or the US want democracy or civil order in Venezuela is just a joke.

Reminds me of an old Chomsky lecture he gave some 20 years ago... He actually predict that Venezuela will be toppled and bring into line "in the near future". Why? It has the world's largest oil reserves.

Freaking psychos. Literally playing with the world like it's some toy of theirs.

You probably missed out on the Social Studies we had to endure as kids, which included things like the Monroe Doctrine, which has shaped foreign policy to this day. So some light reading I came across:

http://latinamericanhistory.oxfordr...99366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-41

 

[McLovin]

Regarding the NK / US confrontation:

NK will likely hold its promise and launch multiple missles towards Guam.

I think it's just posturing. So far that's all that has happened. Neither side looks particularly ready or willing for a fight, and actions speak many volumes louder than words. If you accept the raison d'être for NK's ICBM program is for Kim to maintain his family dynasty, from domestic and foreign threats, it doesn't make sense to provoke a conflict in which he would be wiped out in a few days.

If we start seeing US military families in SK and Japan being told to leave, a naval buildup off the coast of the Korean Peninsula, or the North mobilising ground forces along the SK border those would be actions that signify a ratcheting up beyond trash-talking each other. And I think we'd have to raise our level of concern.

The problem with all this talk is things can easily be misinterpreted.

 

[basilio]

If we start seeing US military families in SK and Japan being told to leave, a naval buildup off the coast of the Korean Peninsula, or the North mobilising ground forces along the SK border those would be actions that signify a ratcheting up beyond trash-talking each other. And I think we'd have to raise our level of concern.

The problem with all this talk is things can easily be misinterpreted.

At that stage it will probably be too late to start seriously worrying. Let's also remember that the US and South Korea are about to start a huge joint military exercises in a week or so. I wonder how that will look to North Korea in the current situation ?

US and South Korea to stage huge military exercise despite North Korea crisis
Tens of thousands of troops to take part in joint drill this month, while Trump adds to war of words with ‘locked and loaded’ tweet

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Oliver Holmes and agencies

Friday 11 August 2017 17.37 AEST Last modified on Friday 11 August 2017 21.48 AEST

US and South Korean militaries will go ahead with massive sea, land and air exercises later this month, despite a spiralling situation in which North Korea has threatened to fire missiles towards a US Pacific territory.

The annual joint exercises, named Ulchi-Freedom Guardian, have long been planned for 21-31 August, but now come at a time when both Washington and Pyongyang are on heightened alert, raising the spectre of a mishap or overreaction.

The timing is doubly concerning as it is within a timeframe in which Pyongyang says it will be ready to fire four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward the US-run island of Guam, an unusually specific threat against the US.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/north-korea-us-south-korea-huge-military-exercise

 

[luutzu]

The devastation in North Korea in the 1940s and 1950s made MacArthur threw up. Flattened 18 of its 22 provinces. Wow.

 

[luutzu]

You probably missed out on the Social Studies we had to endure as kids, which included things like the Monroe Doctrine, which has shaped foreign policy to this day. So some light reading I came across:

http://latinamericanhistory.oxfordr...99366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-41

Great article. Only up to the Monroe Doctrine bit.

So there's already the Monroe Doctrine before Monroe? Man, all these time I really didn't think much about people saying that the Monroe Doctrine was simply to keep other "great" powers out of the Western Hemisphere. Which does kind of make sense.

They never follow with the natural consequences of keeping out peer competitors, leaving weak and defenceless nations to fend for themselves: They get to become Banana republics, now serving both bananas and minerals for a complete diet.

 

[Tisme]

Great article. Only up to the Monroe Doctrine bit.

So there's already the Monroe Doctrine before Monroe? Man, all these time I really didn't think much about people saying that the Monroe Doctrine was simply to keep other "great" powers out of the Western Hemisphere. Which does kind of make sense.

They never follow with the natural consequences of keeping out peer competitors, leaving weak and defenceless nations to fend for themselves: They get to become Banana republics, now serving both bananas and minerals for a complete diet.

The US entered a period of paranoia that took WW2 to soften

 

[Wysiwyg]

The devastation in North Korea in the 1940s and 1950s made MacArthur threw up. Flattened 18 of its 22 provinces. Wow.

So maybe a touch of bitterness from the U.S. destruction during that era which explains fatboy's discontent with the U.S.?

 

[luutzu]

So maybe a touch of bitterness from the U.S. destruction during that era which explains fatboy's discontent with the U.S.?

Technically the Korean War haven't ended. So given the firepower that was brought onto North Korea, it'd be insane for them to not have a nuke, just in case.

I heard that Kim the Elder as well as Lil' Kim have made attempts to neutralise relation with the US/West. Just the US does not see it to their national interests to forgive the North Koreans for their transgressions

I don't think the Kims don't want to neutralise relation because they forgot what was done to their country, but dynastic security mean they need to trade and get into the international system. So to sanction and further isolate North Korea as Trump did recently... It's beyond my pay grade. I mean, what if there's a revolt and those nuclear material disappear somewhere?

That and sanctions has never hurt the ruling elite. It'll just starve and kill the poor and the weak.