The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

That's one of the best slam downs I've seen.

Tech,

I feel as though the first set up you marked on the chart is more appealing than the second based on where the consolidation/triangle pattern formed. Would you agree?

Yes.
As I said close to resistance and this is where a trade makes or breaks its status.
Well and truly broke the bullish sentiment.

There were 8900 contracts traded in 9 min
I feel this is a turning point lower.
(impulse move)

Had a trade on the FTSE overnight and was in a small loss
when I woke up so closed out over the weekend.
Looking for this to be a high.

 

[kid hustlr]

Yes.
As I said close to resistance and this is where a trade makes or breaks its status.
Well and truly broke the bullish sentiment.

There were 8900 contracts traded in 9 min
I feel this is a turning point lower.
(impulse move)

Had a trade on the FTSE overnight and was in a small loss
when I woke up so closed out over the weekend.
Looking for this to be a high.

I haven't had a close look at last night but before last night I was still leaning towards more upside potential. That being said I'm a day behind the times which can be a lot in this game.

 

[tech/a]

I haven't had a close look at last night but before last night I was still leaning towards more upside potential. That being said I'm a day behind the times which can be a lot in this game.

Me too but that high and it's rejection which was pretty emphatic
Needs to be considered.

 

[Newt]

It can't hurt for ASX position traders to keep an eye on these sorts of futures gyrations to help build up the big picture. Its interesting how the 3 big moves (one up, 2 down) in the Dax last night happened within about 10mins after the hour at 1000hrs UTC, 1200hrs, 13000hrs.

Actually, 0800hrs as well - 4 big move regions.

 

[pavilion103]

This will be interesting. I see in out of hour trading price is up above 6800.

I'm hoping to get an entry around 6780-85 if it pulls back and then see if it breaks above.

Will wait and see how it plays out!

 

[pavilion103]

Nothing too exciting this week so far.

I've begun to take more positions using limit orders as price pulls back to a support/resistance.

The setups require:
1) A well defined consolidation with a low/high that is well defined and thus 'safe' to put a stop there
2) This occurs at a previous support/resistance area.
3) Only a small risk - say 1.5-3 points. If I can't get in with a risk this small I don't take it.

I've taken 2 positions like this in the past 2 days with both stopped out to the exact tick!

The short. I had the stop 1 tick above the previous high and it was taken out
The long. I had the stop 2 ticks below the previous low and it was taken out.

I've seen it often occur where the stop is taken out by a tick or two (to trap breakout traders?).

I think these can be high RR oppotunities, particularly if I can get in for a 1 or 2 point risk.
Would probably want potential for at least a 15 point move. Maybe 20 to really make it worth it, depending on the winning % of these setups.

 

[pavilion103]

A nice one tonight.
Shorting from resistance.

 

[kid hustlr]

Interested in getting some thoughts from the more experienced traders on the chart below.



I've posted a little bit of commentary and thoughts on the chart.

It never ceases to amaze me:

1. how easy things are when you look at them with hindsight
2. how often things repeat themselves if you understand why

This '3 hits to a high/3 hits to a low' pattern seems to happen so often. T/H, you first mentioned this one a while back (thank you), do you ever notice in confirming volume factors (Like a big volume spike at the end of the '3rd push' or do you find you can mainly see it in the price action + depth and give little credence to volume?

Secondly, and this is just mainly musings for myself. I've been taught to trade in a scalping manner whereas if the trade goes against me then immediately get out. I think the next step for my trading is recognising some trades don't go my immediately and I need to TRUST my instincts + trade. I think I've struggled a little on the FTSE because even having a trade go 2-3 points against me is something I'm not used to. In the bonds as well I need to build a bigger playbook than just scalping and this will all come in time.

The hardest thing with trading for me right now is trusting myself and trusting my instincts. Always need to work on the pull the trigger syndrome, its something I'm working but I need to improve.

 

[tech/a]

Interested in getting some thoughts from the more experienced traders on the chart below.

View attachment 56482

I've posted a little bit of commentary and thoughts on the chart.

It never ceases to amaze me:

1. how easy things are when you look at them with hindsight
2. how often things repeat themselves if you understand why

This '3 hits to a high/3 hits to a low' pattern seems to happen so often. T/H, you first mentioned this one a while back (thank you), do you ever notice in confirming volume factors (Like a big volume spike at the end of the '3rd push' or do you find you can mainly see it in the price action + depth and give little credence to volume?

Secondly, and this is just mainly musings for myself. I've been taught to trade in a scalping manner whereas if the trade goes against me then immediately get out. I think the next step for my trading is recognising some trades don't go my immediately and I need to TRUST my instincts + trade. I think I've struggled a little on the FTSE because even having a trade go 2-3 points against me is something I'm not used to. In the bonds as well I need to build a bigger playbook than just scalping and this will all come in time.

The hardest thing with trading for me right now is trusting myself and trusting my instincts. Always need to work on the pull the trigger syndrome, its something I'm working but I need to improve.

Have some comments later but what timeframe is this.
Not that it matters but want to look at the chart in Various frames.

 

[kid hustlr]

Have some comments later but what timeframe is this.
Not that it matters but want to look at the chart in Various frames.

Apologies duckman, aussie 10 year futures 15 min.

Just felt it was a 'good' chart for me to highlight a few concepts I'm trying to work on.

 

[pavilion103]

A nice short again.
3 point risk.
Can't ask for much more.



- - - Updated - - -

Considering a short if I get a low risk setup that I think looks good.

 

[pavilion103]

No short. going to bed.
A couple of good days back to back.

I'll be back next Monday.

 

[pavilion103]

Smashed through the 6760 support level!

I wanted that short setup but just couldn't get one that satisfied me. Happy I didn't take on a big risk and then have my stupidity validated by it making me a lucky 50 points.

Won't be on tongiht. Wonder if it will be another big day or not. I'll be back Monday and Tuesday.
It sucks when only trading 3 nights a week (other commitments).

Can't wait until daylight savings ends and the UK one begins.
4:30pm start is right when I get home.
Can get on the first couple of hours of every night!

 

[pavilion103]

What an absolute shocking day to have missed.

I just knew this exact setup would occur.
Without doubt would be up 80 points!!!!

Painful to see it pan out exactly as expected.

Was hoping the market would hold off on a fall like this until Monday!

 

[pavilion103]

Just made two long trades at the 6640-50 support level which is one that was hit a lot a couple of weeks back.

Trade 1 = 1.8 point loss

Trade 2 = 14.7 point win


Had to take profit on trade 2 unfortunately as it's past 12am and I didn't even intend on coming on tonight at all. Early start tomorrow too!

Sucks because I wanted to hold this one for another hour or two and see how it plays out. Better to just take it and go to bed now because I'm exhausted.


That missed short was costly (nothing I could do about it though).
But glad to pick up some more points to add to the weekly tally.
Last 3 nights something like + 15, + 19, + 13 I think.
47 points.

Would have loved to have cashed in tonight with another 70 or 80!!! Grateful for what I have though.

 

[pavilion103]

To be honest no one seems to give a toss in here.

I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.

A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?

Not having a go at anyone. Just thinking maybe it's best not to waste my time or others' if there is no interest. I guess the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.

If anyone wants to PM me to bounce ideas or thinks that there is value in what I'm doing in here, I'm happy to discuss....

 

[cynic]

To be honest no one seems to give a toss in here.

I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.

A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?

Not having a go at anyone. Just thinking maybe it's best not to waste my time or others' if there is no interest. I guess the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.

If anyone wants to PM me to bounce ideas or thinks that there is value in what I'm doing in here, I'm happy to discuss....

Pav,

You might want to consider the number of views before abandoning this thread.

Although many participants aren't actively providing feedback, it's clear that there's some interest in this thread.

 

[MichaelD]

I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.

A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?

Not having a go at anyone. Just thinking maybe it's best not to waste my time or others' if there is no interest. I guess the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.

FWIW, here's my nett trading this year so far.

Week 1: made very little (0.6%)
Weeks 2 & 3: much better weeks (4.7% + 3.6%)

That % is my drawings from my trading capital (i.e. my wages as a % of my trading capital).


The last few days of trading have been very profitable on the short side, and next week should indeed prove to be very interesting indeed.


Here's the thing, though. Most likely the response to the above from the usual suspects will be;
"no proof"
"retrospective"
"don't believe it"
"trading competition"
"show me your broker statements"
"call your trades in advance"


My answers to the above (which also explains why I rarely choose to post):
- My trading results matter to only 2 people; myself and my wife.
- I do not need validation from anyone else.
- I don't need to be distracted when I'm busy managing risk. I make errors and suboptimal decisions. That leads to less profit.
- I do not want to be influenced by anyone else when trading. That will result in errors and thus less profit.
- I don't want to share the way I trade. It's right for *me*, no one else.



Now perhaps some introspective questions are in order.

1. Why do you need other people's confirmation of what you are doing?

2. Will your current great enthusiasm result in you taking excessive risk or trades that you wouldn't otherwise take?

 

[pavilion103]

The idea isn't about posting results or returns.

It is about getting 'feel good' affirmations, validation or pats on the back.

It's about discussing strategies and setups and any other thoughts so that we can compare notes. It's about offering different perspectives or maybe similar ones.

If people don't want to post then that's cool. I just feel that earlier in the thread I was getting more useful advice and it helped. Now there doesn't seem to be too much interest in terms of posting and feedback.

I do hope viewers are at least getting something from it.


Why do people always think enthusiasm will lead to dumb trading? It's always the first response!
Maybe it does for most. I don't know.
What it does for me is gives me the motivation to study study study! Review review review! Continue to read and learn even when it seems boring. If I didn't have a passion for this I wouldn't be here.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

The idea isn't about posting results or returns.

It is about getting 'feel good' affirmations, validation or pats on the back.

It's about discussing strategies and setups and any other thoughts so that we can compare notes. It's about offering different perspectives or maybe similar ones.

If people don't want to post then that's cool. I just feel that earlier in the thread I was getting more useful advice and it helped. Now there doesn't seem to be too much interest in terms of posting and feedback.

I do hope viewers are at least getting something from it.


Why do people always think enthusiasm will lead to dumb trading? It's always the first response!
Maybe it does for most. I don't know.
What it does for me is gives me the motivation to study study study! Review review review! Continue to read and learn even when it seems boring. If I didn't have a passion for this I wouldn't be here.

I always check here pav when I see there is a new post, something that would make it better in my opinion would be to get more visual, you're just talking about numbers and not posting any charts or writing your thoughts on a chart so we can see what you're referring to. Makes it a little harder to follow and get a grasp of the context when it's just a post talking about a certain number.

I would love to have more discussion too, but I feel I don't know poo from clay when the likes of tech/a and TH are roaming the corridors I just get back in my place for fear of saying something someone thinks is stupid and getting attacked for it.