This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

The transition to Futures trading

Jump to new
Hmmm, pretty happy I dont trade yet.

Is that not the reverse of what I said then. The shorts by absorbing on the way up are getting on the wrong side, then selling what they absorbed on the way up plus their initial position?

Haha I think I am confusing myself now. At some stage was somebody going long or short at a worse price than what they wanted to so at a later stage they could unwind an initial position?
 
Welcome to the club.

Was writing something else when I think I figured out my own question, well part of it. Ill ponder on it some more.
 

58,

The Sellers/Shorters doing the absorbing on the way up become the Buyers on the way down.

Once the Sellers get the market to turn down, the Longs that bought into the gap and higher have to cover their losing positions and therefore become the Sellers ....... Irony in motion
 
Cheers Barney, thats what I was thinking.

If futures are a zero sum game and I assume there would not be enough losing retail investors to generate profit for all the big players, where do they generate profit? If some of the big players consistently profitable then there must be big consistent losers?

I realise different systems and different time scales, but eventually if futures are a zero sum game then there has to be a big loser for there to be a big winner (assuming there are not enough small players)
 

I might be wrong here, but I reckon the biggest losers will be the guys using the futures for what they were originally designed for, the hedgers.

A company can make a hedge on the exchange rate for example, so they don't have to worry about the risk of currency changes/fluctuations on their cost of doing business. The company can effectively lock in the exchange rate and is not trading to make money.

Kind of like like buying insurance. With house insurance for example you pay someone to take on the risk of your house burning down and whatever else the insurance covers. Obviously the insurance companies make money so we are on the end of losing trades buying insurance, but we are happy to pay someone to take on our risk that we do not want or can't afford to take.
 
Cheers thongs.

Was just doing a little bit of reading before I went out and came across similar answers. The breakdown of big losers for a year vs the big winners would be interesting to see.

I assume its not public information but would anyone have an idea of what size and equity curves of different players are?
 

I have no idea really but that makes sense Hav ... Gives liquidity to the market irrespective of direction?? Are there any stats on the actual make up of any given Futs market? ie. Number of Hedgers(Instos), Day Traders(TH'ers lol),Retailers(losers) etc. .....

Thoughts TH ??


ps I see you asked the same question above "58" ..... My guess is it really makes little difference .... as long as the liquidity is there, it can be traded ... We should all give thanks that there are "big boys" cause there would be no market without them.
 
Decent chunk of selling on the close in a lot of equity markets on Friday. Month end selling by the big boys?

Given how tough the last 5-6 years have been if I'm a fundy sitting well in the black for the year you better believe I'm taking some risk off the table while the markets are thick instead of relying on a volumeless xmas rally to improve my return (and bonus?)
 
tech/a said:
That'll do.
Night all
Click to expand...

Interested as to where you entered your short trade if you get a chance? I had a short bias coming in but it ripped down so quickly initially I was unable to get a piece.

My only trade was a quick long looking for some short stops which didn't eventuate and led to a scratch.

I was looking for a sell set up when we retraced into the 6630 - 6635 area but couldn't find a low risk entry.

See chart

 
TH penny for your thoughts.

There's about fifty thousand PMI numbers which come out of China each month. Which one do you give the most weighting to? My experience has been that no one gives a rats about the non-manufacturing PMI, but the manufacturing obviously influences aussie markets but theres the Markit, theres the HSBC, theres official. Which one is the real market mover?

All very confusing
 

The official has a much larger spread of enterprises (3000 I think), many more medium companies, than the HSBC (430). But it doesn't really matter the market reads it as it wants; good can be good, good can be bad. (and with China official data you can bet that everyone who matters already knows about it ) It has more to do with what type of market we are in. I said to a friend yesterday morning that I was going to have a short day. I just guessed that being 1st of Dec we would be bullish and thats the way the market would read it. So got long early and hung on till the pop.

At the start of the year the PMI was just about every time used to smash the market even when month to month the reading changed significantly. :
 

yeah ta mate. as always market will digest it however they please im just tired off having to pull my book every second day because theres another PMI number out of China.
 
Haven't seen bergs for weeks on the DAX, then this today
 

Attachments

  • bergs.jpg
    49.3 KB · Views: 43
Sitting at KL about to board the plane back to Adelaide.

Haven't checked FTSE in 2 weeks. Looks like maybe it's coming off a bit.

Will be back onto it soon!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

R
Can trading platforms change the value of candles that have already closed?
Replies
8
Views
1K
peter2
I
Pty Ltd for trading & individual account for investing
Replies
7
Views
3K
investtrader
All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
11K
divs4ever
J
The 'plan'
Replies
5
Views
2K
ducati916
The Portfolio MYTH-----Do you need to change your thinking?
10 11 12
Replies
221
Views
39K
bngood
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...